CRITICAL: Massed Aviation Surge in Zaporizhzhia (1130Z, GS ZSU, HIGH): Russian aviation conducted a coordinated series of airstrikes across six settlements (Verkhnya Tersa, Staroukrayinka, Tsvitkove, Charivne, Zaliznychne, Rizdvyanka). This indicates the execution phase of the previously observed aviation staging at Voronezh Malshevo.
TACTICAL: Integration of "Kuryer" UGV Aerosol Screens (1151Z, RF MoD, MEDIUM): RF Tsentr Group is training with "Kuryer" ground-based robotic systems to deploy aerosol screens in the rear. This suggests an upcoming shift toward mechanized maneuvers masked by robotic obscuration to counter UAF FPV drone dominance.
DIPLOMATIC: RF Official Protest over Marinera (1135Z-1143Z, RF MFA/TASS, HIGH): The RF MFA has issued a "harsh statement" and official protest to the US regarding the seizure of the Marinera. Moscow is framing this as "piracy," further signaling imminent asymmetric maritime retaliation.
UNCONFIRMED: Turkish Peacekeeping Conditions (1149Z, RBC-Ukraine, LOW): Reports suggest Turkey has defined conditions for deploying troops to Ukraine. This is currently treated as an information operation or high-level trial balloon; no official NATO or TR-MoD confirmation exists.
LEGAL/STABILITY: Shufrych Released on Bail (1146Z-1149Z, Operativnyi ZSU/Sternenko, HIGH): A Kyiv court allowed MP Nestor Shufrych to post bail. This may trigger domestic political friction regarding the perceived handling of high-level collaborators.
INFRASTRUCTURE: Dnipro Stabilization (1146Z, Dnipropetrovsk ODA, HIGH): Regional authorities confirm gradual restoration of light, water, and heat. The situation is "complex but controlled," though repair crews remain at high risk.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv/Kupyansk/Lyman Axis:
Status: High Intensity/Contested. GS ZSU reports active clashes in the South Slobozhansky (Vovchansk, Zelene), Kupyansk (Stepova Novoselivka, Kupyansk), and Lyman (Novoyehorivka, Zarichne) directions. The RF appears to be maintaining pressure across the entire northern arc to prevent UAF reserve redeployment.
Donbas (Chasiv Yar/Pokrovsk/Kostiantynivka):
Status: Critical/High Intensity. Intense fighting reported in the Pokrovsk direction (Myrnohrad, Udachne) and Kramatorsk direction (Chasiv Yar). The inclusion of Udachne and Rodynske in GS ZSU reports indicates the RF is attempting to expand the western flank of the Pokrovsk salient (1130Z).
Zaporizhzhia/Southern Axis (Orikhiv/Huliaipole):
Status: Degrading. Significant RF aviation activity (1130Z) coupled with ground clashes near Stepnohirsk and Huliaipole. The surge in KAB/airstrikes suggests an attempt to soften defensive lines for a renewed ground push toward the H-08/T-04-01 junction.
Kherson/Kursk/Sumy:
Status: Active Defense. UAF successfully repelled 3 assaults in the Kherson sector and 3 combined assaults in the Kursk/Sumy direction. Defensive lines in the north remain resilient despite continued RF border pressure.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Robotic Warfare: The deployment of "Kuryer" UGVs for aerosol screens (1151Z) indicates a tactical adaptation to neutralize UAF aerial reconnaissance and FPV strikes during the terminal phase of assaults.
Aviation: The air-to-ground surge in Zaporizhzhia (1130Z) confirms the dispersal of airframes from Voronezh is being translated into frontline kinetic effects.
Information Warfare: RF media is utilizing high-budget film news (Cheburashka 2 - 1146Z) and "Christmas" propaganda (1146Z) as distraction mechanisms from maritime losses and high casualty rates in the Donbas.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Sector Defense: UAF is maintaining a high rate of fire and successfully repelling localized assaults in the northern and southern sectors (1131Z).
Civil-Military Ops: Dnipropetrovsk ODA is prioritizing utility restoration, which is critical for maintaining rear-area stability as the RF attempts to exploit infrastructure failures.
Information environment / disinformation
"Turkish Intervention": The report regarding Turkish troops (1149Z) is likely being amplified to cause friction within NATO or to gauge Russian reaction.
Maritime Narrative: RF continues to push the "US Piracy" theme regarding the Marinera to build a "legal" pretext for future strikes on Western shipping.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue massed KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia, likely followed by night-time mechanized probes using "Kuryer" UGVs for obscuration.
MDCOA: Kinetic escalation in the Black Sea. In response to the MFA protest, RF may attempt a boarding or drone strike on a Western-linked vessel in the Danube or Grain Corridor.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Turkish Troop Conditions: Urgently clarify the source and validity of the "Turkish troop conditions" claim. (Priority: P1)
Kuryer UGV Disposition: Locate the training grounds of the Tsentr Group's NBC units to identify the specific sector where robotic aerosol screens will be deployed. (Priority: P2)
260th GRAU Exit: Confirm if the ammunition surge from the 260th GRAU (SAR 18.95) has reached the Zaporizhzhia or Pokrovsk sectors.
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry shows the RF attempting to force a multi-sector collapse by simultaneous pressure in the North (Kupyansk), Center (Pokrovsk), and South (Zaporizhzhia). The environment remains a "drone-saturated" winter landscape, which explains the RF's new emphasis on robotic aerosol generation to regain maneuverability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
RF is demonstrating tactical innovation (UGVs for screening) and operational persistence. The transition of air power from staging to Zaporizhzhia suggests this sector is the current priority for an operational breakthrough. The RF MFA's rhetoric indicates that the maritime domain is now viewed as a legitimate secondary front for "asymmetric" actions.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF remains in a resilient defensive posture. The successful repelling of assaults in Kherson and Sumy (1131Z) demonstrates that despite the pressure in the Donbas, "economy of force" sectors are holding. However, the legal developments surrounding Shufrych could pose a risk to internal morale if not communicated transparently.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-term: Expect the RF to utilize the newly deployed aerosol UGVs in the Pokrovsk or Zaporizhzhia sectors within the next 48 hours to mask armored movements.
Strategic: The maritime "Shadow War" is escalating. The formal protest by the RF MFA (1135Z) is the final diplomatic step before potential kinetic retaliation against US/UK commercial assets in international waters.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Counter-UGV Readiness: Distribute thermal and multi-spectral imaging kits to forward units in Zaporizhzhia to "see through" aerosol screens generated by Kuryer UGVs.
Maritime Security: Increase the alert level for all UAF-escorted and Western vessels in the Black Sea. Recommend the use of EW-equipped picket boats to detect "unidentified" maritime drones.
Information Counter-Strike: StratCom should immediately clarify the "Turkish troop" rumors to prevent RF-aligned channels from using them to fuel "NATO intervention" narratives.
