CONFIRMED: Kinetic Strike on ELBUS Tanker (1100Z-1116Z, Multiple Sources, HIGH): A drone-kamikaze strike on the Palau-flagged "shadow fleet" tanker ELBUS occurred 30 miles off the Turkish coast (Kastamonu/Abana). This confirms a significant expansion of the maritime threat zone into the southern Black Sea (RBK-Ukraine, ASTRA, Operativnyi ZSU, 1100Z-1116Z).
CLAIMED: RF Advance into Dnipropetrovsk (1102Z-1121Z, RF MoD/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): The Russian MoD and pro-RF channels released video footage claiming the 36th Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (29th Army, Group "Vostok") has seized Bratskoye. While visually supported by UAV footage, the exact FEBA (Forward Edge of Battle Area) remains fluid (Mash na Donbasse, 1102Z; Colonelcassad, 1121Z).
STRATEGIC: RF MFA Escalation regarding Marinera (1118Z-1125Z, TASS/RBK, HIGH): Following the US seizure of the tanker Marinera (linked to a Crimean businessman), the RF MFA warned of "increasing military-political tension in the Euro-Atlantic." This likely signals asymmetric retaliation against Western maritime or economic interests (TASS, 1118Z; RBK-UA, 1125Z).
INFRASTRUCTURE: Partial Power Restoration in Dnipro (1106Z, DTEK, HIGH): DTEK reports power restored to 200,000 families in the Dnipropetrovsk region. However, based on earlier reports of 800,000 outages, approximately 600,000 households remain without electricity (Tsaplienko, 1106Z).
COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE: GRU Asset Detained in Odesa (1109Z, SBU/RBK, HIGH): A Russian GRU agent was apprehended in Odesa for correcting missile strikes under the guise of walking dogs. This highlights persistent RF human intelligence (HUMINT) efforts in port cities (RBK-UA, 1109Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Dnipropetrovsk/Southern Axis:
Status: Degraded/Contested. The reported capture of Bratskoye suggests RF forces are attempting to establish a foothold across the administrative border to threaten the H-08 highway.
Infrastructure: Restoration is underway (200k restored), but the grid remains fragile. RF "double-tap" tactics remain the primary threat to repair crews.
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk) Axis:
Status: High Intensity. Tactical maps indicate ongoing engagements north and west of Pokrovsk. RF forces appear to be attempting to widen the breach to the west to compromise UAF lateral logistics (Colonelcassad, 1106Z).
Siversk Axis:
Status: Attritional. Video evidence shows the 10th OGSHBr utilizing T-72 tanks in direct-fire roles against RF infantry in tree lines. Despite harsh winter conditions and RF FPV drone pressure, UAF positions appear stable (Butusov Plus, 1117Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Maritime courses of action: The strike on the ELBUS—likely an RF "false flag" or a targeted strike on a non-compliant shadow-fleet asset—demonstrates a willingness to conduct kinetic operations near NATO (Turkish) territorial waters.
Strategic Retaliation: RF MFA rhetoric regarding the Marinera suggests that the Euro-Atlantic region is now a target for "asymmetric responses." This may include cyber-attacks on maritime shipping registries or FPV/drone harassment of Western-linked tankers.
Tactical Shifts: Use of 29th Army (Group "Vostok") units in the Dnipro sector indicates a shift of veteran maneuver units to exploit the infrastructure-weakened rear.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Operations: High-intensity active defense in the Siversk and Pokrovsk sectors. UAF armor (10th OGSHBr) is successfully integrating into defensive belts despite high drone saturation (1117Z).
Rear Area Security: SBU successful interdiction of a GRU asset in Odesa (1109Z) mitigates the risk of further precision strikes on port infrastructure.
Legislative/Stability: The submission of a New Labor Code (1123Z) signals a focus on long-term institutional alignment with EU standards, even during high-intensity conflict.
Information environment / disinformation
"Intervention" Narrative: RF media is amplifying a The Times report regarding 15,000 UK/French troops for a "peacekeeping" role (1104Z). This is being framed by Moscow as an "intervention" to justify potential strikes on Western personnel.
Diversionary Themes: Pro-RF channels are pushing a "US-EU conflict over Greenland" narrative (1108Z) to distract from RF maritime losses and the Dnipro offensive.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will likely consolidate the Bratskoye position and attempt to push toward the H-08 highway to isolate the southern logistics hub of Dnipro.
MDCOA: In response to the Marinera seizure, an "unidentified" underwater or aerial drone strike against a Western-flagged commercial vessel in the Black Sea or Mediterranean.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Source of ELBUS Strike: Confirm the launch point and type of drone used in the Kastamonu strike to determine if it originated from Crimea or a maritime launch platform.
260th GRAU Movement: Track the output from the 260th Rocket Artillery Base (SAR score 18.95) to see if munitions are heading toward the Dnipro/Bratskoye breakthrough.
Verification of Western Troop Rumors: Assess the validity of the UK/French deployment reports to gauge the risk of RF "demonstration strikes."
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is shifting from a static winter stalemate to a dynamic maneuver phase in the Dnipropetrovsk sector. The RF is leveraging the 800k-family power outage as a "softening" phase for ground advances. Environmental conditions (snow/sub-zero) are favoring tracked vehicle movement over soft-skinned logistics.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
RF is transitioning to hybrid maritime warfare. By striking the ELBUS near Turkey, they signal that no part of the Black Sea is a sanctuary. The use of Group "Vostok" in Dnipropetrovsk suggests a deliberate attempt to open a new operational axis to bypass the heavily fortified Donbas lines.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is maintaining tactical cohesion in the East (Siversk/Pokrovsk) but is being stretched by the need to secure the Dnipro administrative border. The restoration of 25% of the Dnipro grid is a significant civil-military win but remains vulnerable to the 260th GRAU's imminent ammunition surge.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Short-term: Expect a peak in missile/drone strikes on Dnipro energy nodes in the next 24-48 hours, synchronized with the 260th GRAU logistics flow.
Strategic: The RF MFA's "Euro-Atlantic" warning (1118Z) indicates that the maritime "Shadow War" is likely to move beyond the Black Sea, potentially targeting Baltic or North Sea infrastructure.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Sector Reinforcement: Deploy reserve mechanized elements to the H-08 highway junction to contain the Bratskoye breakthrough before RF can establish a multi-battalion bridgehead.
Electronic Warfare (Maritime): Deploy mobile EW suites to Odesa and the Danube ports specifically tuned to disrupt the frequency ranges used in the ELBUS strike.
Strategic Communication: Publicly link the ELBUS strike to RF aggression in Turkish proximity to drive a wedge between Moscow and Ankara regarding Black Sea security.
