Partial Power Restoration in Dnipropetrovsk (0746Z, RBK-Ukraine/DTEK, HIGH): Energy crews have successfully restored power to select critical infrastructure nodes in the Dnipropetrovsk region. This follows the total grid collapse reported in the previous period.
UNCONFIRMED: Drone Strike on Special Forces University, Chechnya (0742Z, ASTRA, LOW): Reports indicate a potential UAV attack on the Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes. If confirmed, this represents a significant expansion of the UAF deep-strike envelope into the North Caucasus.
Introduction of RF "IGLA 100" Anti-Drone Munitions (0733Z, TASS, HIGH): Rostec has begun supplying specialized tungsten-alloy anti-drone cartridges for smoothbore weapons to RF units. This is a direct tactical response to UAF FPV drone dominance.
FAB-500 Strike in Sumy Oblast (0740Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces conducted a heavy aerial strike using FAB-500 bombs against a temporary deployment point (PVD) of the 119th Territorial Defense Brigade in Ryasne.
Adverse Weather/Road Conditions (0734Z, Patrol Police, HIGH): Severe winter weather is significantly impacting road safety and logistics across Ukraine. Operations are now weather-constrained.
Escalation of Venezuela Information Operation (0748Z-0752Z, TASS/Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): Russian and Chinese state media are amplifying narratives regarding the US seizure of the tanker Marinera, claiming the vessel has a Ukrainian crew and framing US actions as a violation of international law.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole):
RF Ground Activity: The 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th Army, Group "Vostok") is active near Huliaipole (0730Z). Combat footage suggests localized probes or positional consolidation.
UAF Counter-Armor: Defense Forces of the South report the destruction of 4 RF tanks within the last 24 hours (0756Z).
UAV Threat: UAV groups are transiting Marganets toward Nikopol (0733Z).
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Rodynske):
Urban Combat: UAF Special Forces liquidated an RF strongpoint in the urban/suburban environment of Rodynske (0733Z).
RF Preparation: The "Yug" (South) Group of Forces is conducting specialized urban assault training, focusing on small-arms combat and clearing strongholds (0746Z). This indicates preparation for high-intensity urban warfare in the Donbas.
Northern Axis (Sumy/Dnipropetrovsk):
Air Activity: UAV groups detected moving toward Sumy (0751Z) and transiting the Bozhedarivka area (Dnipropetrovsk) toward Poltava (0755Z).
Strike Activity: The FAB-500 strike on Ryasne (0740Z) confirms RF intent to degrade UAF reserves and Territorial Defense units in the border regions.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: The RF is shifting from broad infrastructure strikes to a "stabilization and preparation" phase. They are introducing localized tactical fixes (IGLA 100 anti-drone ammo) while training assault groups for urban breakthroughs.
Logistics: Despite weather constraints, the surge at the 260th GRAU (noted in the previous daily report) remains a primary indicator of an upcoming large-scale missile/rocket salvo.
Tactical Adaptation: The move to equip units with specialized tungsten anti-drone shot indicates the RF is attempting to lower the cost of FPV defense at the platoon level.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Success: Successful liquidation of an RF strongpoint in Rodynske demonstrates high tactical proficiency in urban environments.
Air Defense/Monitoring: Continuous tracking of multiple Shahed-type UAV groups indicates a high state of readiness, though the transit paths suggest the RF is testing gaps in AD coverage following the recent grid failures.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Marinera Narrative": RF propaganda is increasingly focusing on the Marinera tanker seizure to frame the US as a "global pirate." The claim of a "Ukrainian crew" (0748Z) is likely an attempt to create friction between Kyiv and international maritime labor organizations or to embarrass the UAF.
Strategic Distraction: The continued focus on Venezuela (Trump quotes in TASS, 0752Z) serves to divert Western public attention from the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV strikes on regional energy nodes to prevent further restoration of critical infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk.
MDCOA: A coordinated "double-tap" strike on repair crews or PVDs in the Sumy or Dnipro sectors, leveraging the ongoing weather-related logistical slowdowns.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Gudermes Strike Confirmation: Verify the ASTRA report of a UAV strike in Chechnya via satellite imagery or HUMINT. A strike here would confirm new long-range UAF capabilities.
IGLA 100 Efficacy: Monitor frontline reports to assess if the new RF anti-drone ammunition is significantly increasing the attrition rate of UAF FPV drones.
Power Grid Vulnerability: Determine which specific "critical nodes" were restored in Dnipro and if they remain targeted by the current UAV groups (0755Z).
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is currently shaped by two non-kinetic factors: the total/partial blackout in the south and severe winter weather. Ground maneuver is slowing, forcing both sides into attritional drone/artillery duels and localized special operations (Rodynske).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
The RF is institutionalizing its urban warfare approach. The transition of the "Yug" Group to urban-specific training (0746Z) suggests they have identified urban centers in the Donbas as their primary targets for the Q1 2026 campaign. The use of FAB-500s in Sumy indicates a lack of concern for collateral damage or a high-confidence intelligence lead on UAF PVD locations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is maintaining defensive integrity despite the grid collapse. The restoration of some power in Dnipro (0746Z) is a major operational win for resilience, but the "Zaporizhzhia Blackout" remains the critical humanitarian and logistical vulnerability.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Timeline: Within the next 24-48 hours, the RF will likely launch the munitions staged at the 260th GRAU.
Decision Point: If the Gudermes strike is confirmed, expect an immediate RF "retaliation" strike on Kyiv or Lviv decision-making centers.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
FPV Dispersion: Units in the "Vostok" and "Yug" sectors should adapt FPV flight profiles to counter the new RF "IGLA 100" shotgun threat—increase altitude and use more unpredictable terminal dive angles.
Logistical Hardening: In light of the Ryasne strike (0740Z), Territorial Defense units in the Sumy and Kharkiv border regions must further disperse PVDs and avoid using identifiable civilian buildings for large troop concentrations.
Strategic Communication: StratCom should immediately address the "Ukrainian crew on the Marinera" claim (0748Z) to prevent the RF from using it as a wedge in international maritime relations.
