Total Blackout in Zaporizhzhia (0727Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): A region-wide power outage struck Zaporizhzhia Oblast at approximately 22:00 on Jan 7. This is the first total blackout for the region in several years, indicating a catastrophic failure of the regional energy node.
Dnipro Infrastructure Adaptation (0711Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Authorities in Dnipro have extended school holidays and are transitioning public transport from trams (electric) to buses to mitigate the total grid collapse.
Active UAV Threat in Zaporizhzhia (0721Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Enemy strike UAVs detected over Komyshuvakha, likely conducting BDA or targeting remaining localized power substations.
Russian Offensive Activity - Krasnolimansky (0720Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Video evidence confirms the Russian "Rubicon" unit is conducting drone-corrected strikes against UAF positions in this sector.
Claims of US Kinetic Action in Venezuela (0710Z, ASTRA, LOW): Reports from Venezuelan authorities claim 100 casualties and injuries to former President Maduro following a "US attack." Analytical Note: Likely a high-tier Russian-backed disinformation operation designed to distract from the European theater, though the impact on the information environment is HIGH.
UNCONFIRMED: UK Air Defense Aid (0718Z, Tsaplienko, LOW): Reports circulate regarding the transfer of 13 Raven AD systems and Gravehawk prototypes from the UK. Analytical Note: Source flags this as potentially simulated or fabricated news due to date discrepancies.
Operational picture (by sector)
Dnipropetrovsk / Kryvyi Rih Sector:
Infrastructure Status:NON-FUNCTIONAL. The transition to bus-based transport in Dnipro (0711Z) confirms that the city expects a long-term (72h+) lack of grid stability for high-draw municipal services.
Humanitarian: Water and heating remain the primary vulnerabilities as temperatures persist in winter ranges.
Zaporizhzhia Sector:
Grid Status:TOTAL COLLAPSE. Unlike the localized damage in Dnipro, the 22:00 blackout was region-wide (0727Z).
Tactical Activity: Russian grouping "Vostok" claims to have destroyed a UAF mortar point and ammunition depot in a tree line (0700Z). This suggests active RF counter-battery and reconnaissance-strike loops are operating despite the blackout.
Krasnolimansky / Northern Axis:
Ground Activity: Increased RF drone activity via the "Rubicon" unit (0720Z). This indicates a focus on precision attritional strikes against UAF defensive fortifications in the forest zones.
Kupyansk: RF fundraising efforts (0704Z) for units in this direction suggest preparations for sustained high-intensity combat or a localized push.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: The RF is successfully achieving a "cascading grid failure" across Southeastern Ukraine. By knocking out Zaporizhzhia entirely while Dnipro is already reeling, they are creating a massive contiguous zone of civilian distress, likely intended to paralyze UAF rear-area logistics.
Tactical Adaptation: The RF is increasingly relying on specialized drone units (Rubicon, Vostok) to maintain pressure while conventional units may be regrouping for the ammunition surge predicted by the 260th GRAU SAR spike (see Previous Daily Report).
Logistics: Continuous fundraising for Kupyansk (0704Z) and Kherson (0717Z) suggests that despite centralized state supply, tactical units on both sides are still heavily dependent on volunteer-driven procurement for specialized tech (thermals/drones).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Infrastructure Defense: UAF is prioritizing mobile power for critical command nodes. The shift to buses in Dnipro indicates a pragmatic reallocation of liquid fuel to maintain civilian mobility.
Technological Needs: High demand for thermal imaging equipment in the Kherson sector (0717Z) highlights a persistent gap in night-fighting capabilities at the tactical level.
Information environment / disinformation
Venezuela Distraction: The claim of a US strike on Venezuela (0710Z) is gaining traction. This narrative is likely being pushed to frame the US as an "aggressor" on multiple fronts, potentially to undermine support for continued aid to Ukraine or to justify a Russian "asymmetric" naval response following the Marinera seizure.
Fake Aid Reports: The Raven/Gravehawk news (0718Z) appears to be an information operation possibly designed to create a false sense of security regarding AD coverage or to bait UAF into revealing current AD dispositions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV harassment of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro "blackout zones" to prevent engineering crews from stabilizing the grid.
MDCOA: A major missile salvo (Iskander/MLRS) leveraging the surge at the 260th GRAU to hit UAF units moving under the cover of the Zaporizhzhia blackout.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia Blackout Root Cause: Determine if the total blackout was caused by a single point of failure (Substation 750kV) or a coordinated cyber-kinetic attack on the control system.
Krasnolimansky Force Disposition: Assess the strength of the "Rubicon" unit to determine if this is a company-level tactical nuisance or a precursor to a larger assault.
Venezuela Veracity: Monitor international maritime and satellite feeds for any kinetic indicators in the Caribbean to confirm/deny the ASTRA report.
IPB ANALYSIS
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield has expanded into a regional humanitarian-industrial crisis. The total loss of power in Zaporizhzhia, coupled with the ongoing Dnipro collapse, threatens the "Zaporizhzhia-Dnipro-Pavlohrad" logistics triangle which supports the entire Southern and Eastern fronts.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
The RF is utilizing a "dual-track" strategy:
Strategic: Dismantling the power grid to force a civilian exodus and logistical paralysis.
Tactical: Using specialized UAS units (Rubicon/Vostok) to pinpoint and destroy UAF mortar and AD assets in the Krasnolimansky and Zaporizhzhia directions.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF is in a "damage control" posture. The reliance on volunteer fundraising for Kherson (thermals) and the potential fake-out regarding UK AD systems (Raven) suggests a period of resource scarcity.
4. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Timeline: The next 24 hours will determine if the Zaporizhzhia blackout can be partially reversed. If not, the municipal heating systems will likely suffer permanent damage due to ice expansion.
Decision Point: UAF must assess if the 260th GRAU surge is destined for the Kupyansk sector (given the fundraising activity) or a follow-on strike on the Dnipro energy nodes.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Counter-UAS Deployment: Move mobile EW teams to Komyshuvakha immediately to intercept RF drones conducting BDA on the damaged grid (0721Z).
Verify UK Aid: High Command should issue a clarification on the Raven/Gravehawk reports to prevent operational planning based on fabricated AD capabilities (0718Z).
Blackout Security: Deploy additional National Guard units to major Zaporizhzhia cities to maintain order and protect critical nodes from sabotage during the total blackout.
