Multi-Modal Strike on Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia (0303Z–0320Z, UAF Air Force/OVA, HIGH): Simultaneous group of UAVs (Shahed/Geran type) moving west through eastern Dnipropetrovsk and new KAB launches targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This confirms a coordinated "high-low" strike profile using drones to saturate AD while KABs target fixed positions.
Persistent Air Alert "Pulse" (0318Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Re-activation of alerts in the Southern Sector. This is the third major alert cycle in under 90 minutes, confirming the systematic attempt to exhaust Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) crews and civilian resilience.
RF Interior Alert Stand-down (0308Z, Lipetsk/Artamonov, MEDIUM): Termination of "yellow level" alerts in the Lipetsk region. Suggests a localized threat (likely UAF long-range UAVs) has been neutralized or has exited the area.
Shift in Information Operations (0315Z–0320Z, TASS/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Transition from the "Oil War/Piracy" narrative to a "US Imperialism in Greenland/Denmark" narrative. This indicates a Kremlin-directed effort to frame US maritime and diplomatic actions as global aggression to distract from Atlantic tanker seizures.
Russian Economic Protectionism (0320Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Introduction of legislation forcing e-commerce platforms to prioritize domestic products. (Belief: 0.16). Indicates RF preparation for deeper economic isolation or a "fortress economy" posture.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih):
Zaporizhzhia: Subject to immediate KAB threat (0305Z). The frequency of launches suggests RF tactical aviation is operating from "pop-up" profiles near the LOS (Line of Supplies).
Kryvyi Rih: Remains in a critical infrastructure state following previous water/power strikes. The current UAV movement (0303Z) toward the west places this sector at high risk for "double-tap" strikes on repair crews.
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Dnipropetrovsk):
Dnipropetrovsk Sector: UAV group detected in the east, heading west (0303Z). This likely targets the Dnipro-Pavlohrad logistics hub, a critical node for reinforcing the Donbas front.
Donetsk Sector: Heavy KAB saturation continues (from 0235Z report). No new ground gains confirmed, but the intensity of aerial prep suggests a localized RF offensive is imminent.
Russian Federation Rear:
Lipetsk/Belgorod: Threat levels fluctuating. Following the UAF hit on the Belgorod oil depot (Daily Report), RF AD is in a state of high alert, evidenced by the Lipetsk "yellow level" cycle.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation/UAV Coordination: RF is demonstrating improved synchronization between slow-moving loitering munitions (UAVs) and high-speed standoff weapons (KABs). The UAVs appear to be used as AD-draw or "bait" to reveal positions for KAB/missile counters.
Logistics: The 260th GRAU Arsenal (SAR: 18.95) remains the primary indicator of a major impending strike. The current "pulse" alerts are likely the preparatory phase to deplete interceptors before a rail-out of heavier munitions (Iskander/MLRS) begins.
Adaptation: The move to legislate e-commerce domestic preference suggests the RF Ministry of Industry and Trade is anticipating further Western sanctions or a total break in digital trade loops.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Successfully managing the "pulse" alerts, but crew fatigue is a rising concern. AD units in the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia corridor are being forced into constant displacement to avoid SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) after firing.
Civilian Defense: Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro OVA are maintaining high-speed communication to manage civilian movement during the high-frequency alerts.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Greenland Pivot": RF media is attempting to link US business interests in Greenland (0315Z) to "imperialism" (0320Z). This is a classic Reflexive Control tactic: framing US actions as provocative to justify RF's own maritime escalations or to sow discord within NATO (specifically targeting Danish sovereignty sentiments). (Belief: 0.106).
Economic Resilience Narrative: TASS reports on "Russian shelves" in e-commerce (0320Z) are intended to project stability and self-sufficiency to the domestic audience despite the seizure of "Shadow Fleet" assets.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: UAVs currently over Dnipropetrovsk (0303Z) will impact energy or logistics targets near Dnipro/Pavlohrad. KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia will focus on tactical staging areas to prevent UAF reinforcements from moving north.
MDCOA: The UAV/KAB "pulses" culminate in a high-density missile salvo from the 260th GRAU arsenal, specifically targeting the Odesa-Kyiv-Dnipro rail triangle to collapse the winter logistics network.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
UAV Identification: Determine if the "Group of UAVs" (0303Z) includes new variants or EW-specialized airframes intended to jam AD radars.
260th GRAU Rail Movement: Immediate satellite/HUMINT confirmation required on whether munitions have begun loading/movement following the SAR spike.
Greenland IO Origin: Track if the "anti-imperialist" Greenland narrative is gaining traction in European fringe media to gauge the effectiveness of this new RF IO axis.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield has entered a "shaping phase" for a larger operation. RF is using high-attrition aerial tactics (KABs/UAVs) to fix UAF assets in place. The maritime theater remains tense but quiet following the Marinera seizure, with RF shifting its response to the cognitive domain (Greenland narrative).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: RF is prioritizing "Grid and Logic" strikes—targeting the energy grid (Kryvyi Rih) and the logistical logic (Pavlohrad/Dnipro).
Adaptation: Use of protectionist economic laws indicates a long-term shift toward a total war economy.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF AD is currently reactive. There is a requirement for proactive "hunting" of KAB-launching airframes (Su-34/35) to break the "pulse" cycle.
Constraint: Limited interceptor stock for low-priority UAV targets during high-frequency alerts.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic IO: Moscow is moving to a "Global North" grievance narrative, attempting to position itself as a defender of small nations (like Greenland/Denmark) against "US Imperialism." This is a high-level distraction from their tactical failures in the Atlantic.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Timeline: The current UAV/KAB activity is expected to peak between 0400Z and 0600Z. If AD is sufficiently suppressed, the 260th GRAU salvo is likely to occur NLT the morning of 09 JAN.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
AD Resource Management: Prioritize mobile AA (Gepard/Vampire) for the 0303Z UAV group to conserve high-tier interceptors (Patriot/NASAMS) for potential ballistic threats from the 260th GRAU.
Logistical Dispersion: Disperse all rolling stock and personnel at the Pavlohrad rail hub immediately. The 0303Z UAV heading suggests this is a high-probability target.
Counter-IO: Launch a preemptive StratCom brief detailing the "Shadow Fleet's" environmental and legal risks to counter the "US Piracy/Imperialism" narrative before it gains traction in the Global South and Nordic regions.
