KAB Launches on Donetsk Oblast (0235Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting the Donetsk sector. This represents a geographic expansion of the aerial bombardment previously focused on Kharkiv.
Renewed Zaporizhzhia Air Alert (0236Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): A new alert cycle initiated only 12 minutes after the 0224Z stand-down. This confirms a high-frequency "pulse" tactic designed to maximize AD crew fatigue and civilian disruption.
Interdiction of UAF Rotation in Kharkiv (0245Z, TASS, LOW): RF sources claim the destruction of a UAF transport vehicle, allegedly thwarting a troop rotation. UNCONFIRMED; likely tactical propaganda, but indicates RF focus on interdicting frontline sustainment.
Information Scare/Cyber Glitch in Dnipro (0229Z, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): A DTEK website error suggested power would not return to Dnipro until 2027. While clarified as a glitch, the timing aligns with kinetic strikes on the grid, likely amplifying psychological "fear and panic" (Belief: 0.0047).
Expansion of Global "Oil War" Narrative (0255Z, TASS/WSJ, MEDIUM): RF media is now framing US actions in Venezuela as a move to control PDVSA and force oil prices to $50/barrel. This links the maritime seizure of "Shadow Fleet" tankers to broader global economic destabilization.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Kharkiv Sector: RF has shifted from infrastructure strikes to tactical interdiction. The claim of a destroyed transport (0245Z) suggests RF ISR is actively hunting rotation corridors. This correlates with the arrival of the "Rubicon" drone unit reported in the previous sitrep.
Sumy Sector: Remains under persistent ISR pressure. No new kinetic crossings reported.
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Donetsk Sector: Now a primary target for KAB saturation (0235Z). This follows the 1439Z (Jan 7) heavy bombardment pattern. Expect increased ground probing as KABs are used to clear defensive positions.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih):
Zaporizhzhia: The "pulse" rhythm is accelerating. The 12-minute reset (0224Z–0236Z) is an aggressive escalation in electronic/psychological warfare, keeping AD units in a constant state of high-readiness.
Logistics Status: No change in status for the 260th GRAU Arsenal (SAR: 18.95). The intensification of air alerts in Zaporizhzhia may be intended to "fix" AD assets south of Dnipro before a potential rail-out from the 260th begins.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation: RF is demonstrating the ability to surge KAB strikes across two simultaneous axes (Kharkiv and Donetsk).
Tactical Interdiction: Increased focus on "rotation-hunting" in the Kharkiv region suggests RF expects a UAF counter-maneuver or is preparing for their own localized offensive.
Logistics/C2: RF is effectively leveraging the "Unmanned Systems Force" (reported Jan 7) to provide real-time targeting for aviation and artillery in the Kharkiv sector.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Sustainment: UAF rotations in the Northeastern sector are under increased observation and fire. Mobile EW and concealment measures during troop movements are critical.
Infrastructure: DTEK and municipal authorities are engaged in "Information Firefighting" to counter panic caused by the Dnipro power restoration glitch.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Wedge Narrative: By linking the Marinera seizure to a "US plan to crash oil prices" (0255Z), Moscow is attempting to alienate OPEC+ partners and frame US maritime law enforcement as a threat to global oil producers' sovereignty.
Reflexive Control: The DTEK site "glitch" (0229Z) should be investigated as a potential minor cyber intrusion intended to synchronize with kinetic infrastructure damage, creating a sense of "permanent" utility loss.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Sustained KAB bombardment in Donetsk to facilitate localized ground assaults. Continuation of the Zaporizhzhia air alert "pulses" to exhaust AD interceptors.
MDCOA: A heavy missile salvo (Iskander/MLRS) from the 260th GRAU arsenal targeting the Dnipro-Pavlohrad logistics hub, timed to coincide with a period of peak AD fatigue.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kharkiv Ground Truth: BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) required to confirm or deny the loss of transport assets in Kharkiv (0245Z).
Cyber Attribution: Forensic analysis of the DTEK "2027" glitch to determine if it was a technical error or a coordinated cyber-IO.
Donetsk KAB Targets: Identify if the 0235Z strikes are targeting frontline trenches or rear-area command posts (C2).
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The theater of operations is characterized by high-tempo aerial activity. The RF is using a mix of KABs for destruction and "pulse" alerts for attrition. The domestic rear (Dnipro) is being targeted via synchronized kinetic and information operations.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: High proficiency in multi-axis KAB employment. Increased synergy between ISR drones and tactical aviation.
Intentions: To isolate frontline units in Kharkiv by interdicting rotations while softening Donetsk defenses for ground action.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Vulnerability: Logistical transit points in Kharkiv are currently the highest-risk areas for tactical losses.
Morale: High, but civilian "grid fatigue" in Dnipro/Kryvyi Rih is being actively exploited by RF propaganda.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain: The shift to an "oil price" narrative indicates RF is moving beyond the "piracy" argument to a more sophisticated economic warfare framing.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Timeline: Expect the 260th GRAU munitions to be committed if the current "pulse" alerts successfully force a repositioning or depletion of UAF AD in the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia corridor.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Rotation Security: Implement strict radio silence and decentralized movement for all personnel rotations in the Kharkiv sector. Increase use of smoke and EW during vehicle movement.
AD Discipline: Maintain strict fire discipline in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Avoid engaging low-priority decoys to conserve interceptors for the expected 260th GRAU salvo.
Cyber Defense: Alert all critical infrastructure providers (Energy, Water, Rail) to the risk of "information-kinetic synchronization" where minor site glitches are used to amplify the psychological effect of physical strikes.
