KAB Strikes on Kharkiv (0206Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) from the east targeting Kharkiv Oblast. This marks the transition of the previously reported aviation surge into a kinetic phase.
Zaporizhzhia Alert Stand-down (0224Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): The second "pulse" air alert (initiated at 0154Z) has been cleared. No immediate kinetic impacts reported, confirming the assessment of AD exhaustion tactics.
RF Drone Operations in Sumy (0205Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Deployment of the "Rubicon" ($\text{Рубикон}$) drone unit in the Sumy direction. Indicates persistent RF ISR/strike capability despite the destruction of the Znobovka bridge.
Domestic Disinformation Operation (0221Z, TASS/MVD, MEDIUM): RF internal security reports a campaign using UAF imagery to threaten schoolchildren with missile strikes. Assessed as a "fear and panic" hybrid operation to degrade domestic stability.
Strategic Narrative Shift (0218Z, Operation Z/TASS, LOW): RF-aligned sources are pivoting from "diplomatic settlement" talk (Duma invitation) to highlighting "US Unilateralism" (UN/Trump rhetoric) and "US Aggression" (Venezuela).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeastern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Kharkiv Sector: Under active KAB bombardment as of 0206Z. This correlates with the dispersal of airframes from AB Voronezh Malshevo (Jan 7 Daily Report). The focus remains on degrading infrastructure and forward staging areas.
Sumy Sector: Renewed activity by the RF "Rubicon" drone unit (0205Z) suggests that RF forces are conducting active reconnaissance and likely "FPV-interdiction" to prevent UAF from exploiting the current bridge-based isolation of the sector.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih):
Zaporizhzhia: The stand-down at 0224Z concludes the second air alert cycle since 0100Z. The rapid cycling (Clear 0146Z -> Alert 0154Z -> Clear 0224Z) is a deliberate tactic to induce crew fatigue and disrupt civilian repair schedules in Kryvyi Rih.
Logistics Status: The 260th GRAU Arsenal activity (SAR: 18.95) remains the primary latent threat. The current KAB strikes in the north may be a shaping operation before the 260th's heavy munitions (Iskander/MLRS) are employed against the Dnipro logistics hub.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Tactics: The RF is effectively using KABs for stand-off bombardment of Kharkiv, minimizing risk to airframes while maximizing psychological and structural damage.
Hybrid/Psyop Adaptation: The targeting of schoolchildren with UAF-themed threats (0221Z) indicates a move toward "reflexive control" operations—trying to provoke an internal RF security response or public outcry that masks RF's own technical failures or maritime losses.
International Messaging: The use of Venezuelan Vice President Rodriguez's statement (0206Z) and Ambassador Waltz's comments on the UN (0218Z) serves to frame the RF's conflict as part of a global resistance against "US Aggression," likely aimed at Global South audiences.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Successfully managed the "pulse" alerts in the South without premature depletion of interceptors.
Counter-ISR: UAF electronic warfare (EW) in the Sumy sector is tasked with disrupting the "Rubicon" drone unit's terminal guidance.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Aggressive West": RF state media is aggressively amplifying themes of US unilateralism. This is a clear attempt to dilute the impact of the US seizure of the "Shadow Fleet" tankers Marinera and Sophia.
Tactical Deception: The escolares-targeted "UAF threat" video (0221Z) is likely a false-flag operation intended to justify harsher internal security measures or further mobilization in the RF.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB saturation of Kharkiv combined with a potential MLRS/Iskander salvo from the 260th GRAU assets targeting the Dnipro-Pavlohrad corridor between 0400Z and 0900Z.
MDCOA: RF "asymmetric retaliation" in the maritime domain. Given the narrative focus on "US Aggression," a proxy-led or "drifting mine" incident against commercial shipping in the Black Sea is highly probable to counter the Atlantic tanker seizures.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Sumy Drone Capabilities: Identify if the "Rubicon" unit is employing new drone types or operating from relocated launch sites post-bridge destruction.
KAB Munition Type: Determine if the Kharkiv strikes (0206Z) involve UMPK-equipped 1500kg bombs, indicating an escalation in payload.
260th GRAU Train Movements: Immediate SIGINT/IMINT update required on rail out-loading from the 260th Arsenal to confirm destination.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has shifted to the Northeastern axis with KAB strikes on Kharkiv. In the South, a deceptive "pulse" rhythm is being used to fix AD assets. Globally, the RF is attempting to seize the moral high ground through anti-US propaganda in Latin America and the UN.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: RF maintains the ability to strike in three domains simultaneously (Kinetic-Air in Kharkiv, ISR-Drone in Sumy, Psyop-Hybrid in the domestic rear).
Logistics: The 260th GRAU remains the "center of gravity" for the next 24 hours of operations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Readiness: High. No reported losses from the recent Zaporizhzhia alert cycles.
Vulnerability: Kharkiv's proximity to the border makes it highly vulnerable to the current KAB tactics, which have shorter flight times than cruise missiles.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain: The RF is attempting to pivot from the "negotiation" narrative to an "existential struggle against US hegemony," likely to prepare the domestic population for further economic or military escalation following the maritime setbacks.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA): A sustained KAB campaign to suppress Kharkiv's defenses, followed by a heavy missile strike on the Pavlohrad rail hub to disrupt the flow of Western aid.
Decision Point: If the 260th GRAU munitions are not launched by 1000Z, the RF may be experiencing internal logistics friction or holding assets for a larger synchronized strike involving the Black Sea Fleet.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Kharkiv Hardening: Accelerate the movement of mobile electronic warfare units to Kharkiv to disrupt KAB guidance systems.
Strategic StratCom: Counter the "US Unilateralism" narrative by highlighting the RF Navy's failure to protect its own "Shadow Fleet" in the Atlantic, emphasizing RF weakness rather than Western aggression.
Internal Security: Issue a public advisory regarding the "UAF missile threat" scam to neutralize the RF's domestic panic operation.
