Renewed Air Alert - Southern Axis (0154Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): A new air raid alert has been declared for Zaporizhzhia Oblast following a brief 8-minute stand-down. This indicates a wave-based UAV/missile profile or the detection of a second echelon of threats.
Air Alert Stand-down (0146Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): The previous alert (initiated 0103Z) was cleared briefly before the 0154Z re-initiation.
Diplomatic Information Operation (0135Z, TASS, LOW): RF state media, citing US Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, claims four State Duma deputies were invited to Washington to discuss a Ukraine "settlement." UNCONFIRMED.
RF-Venezuela Propaganda (0155Z, TASS, LOW): RF sources are amplifying claims of 100+ casualties in a "US operation" in Venezuela. Assessed as a distraction narrative to dilute reporting on Ukrainian infrastructure strikes.
Russian Influence Expansion (0146Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): CAR President Touadera has proposed a joint Russia-CAR UAV training center, signaling the institutionalization of RF drone doctrine in sub-Saharan Africa.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia):
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The rapid cycle of air alerts (0146Z Clear -> 0154Z Alert) suggests the RF is employing "pulse" tactics to exhaust UAF Air Defense (AD) crews and force the depletion of interceptor stocks. This aligns with the previously identified threat from the 260th GRAU Arsenal munitions surge.
Nikopol/Shakhtarske: The 0117Z UAV wave has likely transitioned into its terminal phase or has been superseded by a secondary launch detected at 0154Z.
Northern/Global Rear (RF/International):
Strategic Rhetoric: Statements regarding Greenland's critical role in US missile defense (0130Z) and the Duma invitation (0135Z) indicate an RF effort to frame the conflict within a broader "Global Cold War" context, likely to justify continued domestic mobilization and the 260th GRAU logistics surge.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Intent: The RF is maintaining a high-frequency UAV presence over the Southern Axis. The rapid re-alerting indicates that the 0117Z wave was likely a precursor to a larger or more complex strike package now entering the sector.
Logistics Status: The 260th GRAU Arsenal activity (Daily Report SAR: 18.95) remains the primary threat driver. Current UAV activity is assessed as "shaping" for the expected heavy munitions delivery.
Hybrid Operations: The "Duma in DC" narrative (0135Z) is likely a tactical deception aimed at creating perceived friction between the UA government and its Western partners regarding "back-channel" negotiations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD units are in a state of high readiness, responding to the second alert wave in under 10 minutes.
Information Defense: Monitoring of the "Duma invitation" claim is ongoing to prevent domestic morale degradation.
Information environment / disinformation
"Peace Talks" Narrative: The claim of Duma members visiting Washington (0135Z) is high-impact/low-probability. It is being used to project an image of RF diplomatic legitimacy and Western "fatigue."
Distraction Narrative: Amplifying casualty counts in Venezuela (0155Z) is a classic RF reflex to shift international focus away from the "Energy Siege" in Dnipro/Kryvyi Rih.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued "pulse" air alerts in the Southern Sector to fix AD assets, followed by a concentrated missile strike from the 260th GRAU assets between 0400Z and 0800Z targeting Dnipro logistics.
MDCOA: A "double-tap" strike on energy/water repair crews in Kryvyi Rih, synchronized with the peak of the 0154Z alert wave to maximize civilian casualties and infrastructure failure.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Duma Travel: Verify any official US State Department or Congressional confirmation of the 0135Z "invitation" to debunk the RF claim.
Alert Trigger: Identify the specific platform (Shahed, Kalibr, or Tu-95MS) that triggered the 0154Z alert to determine the threat level of the second wave.
RF-CAR Nexus: Monitor for the movement of RF UAV instructors from the Ukraine theater to the CAR to assess potential degradation of RF training capacity.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is characterized by a "pulse" rhythm in the air domain. The RF is leveraging its tactical UAV assets to maintain constant alert status over Zaporizhzhia, while its strategic information apparatus attempts to manipulate the diplomatic landscape.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: High-volume UAV production and institutionalization (Unmanned Systems Force) allow for the "pulse" tactics observed.
Intent: To achieve the "Energy Siege" objectives outlined in the Jan 7 report by preventing repair efforts and degrading AD effectiveness before the primary 260th GRAU arsenal delivery.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Constraint: Crew fatigue is a rising factor due to the rapid cycle of air alerts in the Southern Sector.
Success: Rapid 8-minute turnaround on air alerts demonstrates high C2 effectiveness in the Zaporizhzhia OVA.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain: RF is attempting to bridge tactical actions (UAV strikes) with strategic narratives (Duma talks) to suggest that resistance is futile as "deals are being made."
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA): A heavy strike package (Iskander/MLRS) will likely follow the current 0154Z alert wave, targeting the Dnipro-Pavlohrad corridor to sever logistics before 0900Z.
Decision Point: If the 0154Z alert lasts longer than 90 minutes without kinetic impact, it is likely a diversion for a strike in an adjacent sector (e.g., Odesa/Black Sea).
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
AD Discipline: Ensure mobile AD units do not relocate prematurely during "clear" signals (like 0146Z) to avoid being caught out of position by the 0154Z "second pulse."
Diplomatic Clarification: Recommend the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) issue a preemptive statement regarding the "Duma invitation" to maintain coalition unity.
Infrastructure Defense: Prioritize protection of the 750kV transmission lines in the Zaporizhzhia/Nikopol sector, as the current UAV waves are likely mapping their current operational status for the morning's primary strikes.
