Tactical Loss - Kharkiv Sector (0014Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Confirmed destruction of a UAF tank via FPV drone with ammunition detonation in the Kharkiv region. This indicates active RF reconnaissance-strike loops in the northern sector.
Sanctions Escalation (0022Z, TASS/Graham, MEDIUM): US Senator Lindsey Graham reports Trump supports new Congressional sanctions against the RF, likely aligning with the 500% tariff proposal mentioned in the previous sitrep.
Information Operation - US Domestic Discord (0020Z, RBC-UA, MEDIUM): Reports of a fatal ICE shooting in Minneapolis are being amplified within the Ukrainian and regional information space, likely to be exploited by RF actors to highlight Western social instability.
Diplomatic Realignment (0000Z, TASS, LOW): Announcement of a scheduled meeting between the US and Colombia. RF media is tracking this closely as part of their broader "US Imperialism" narrative.
Narrative Shaping (0010Z, TASS/Carlson, MEDIUM): RF state media is leveraging Western commentary (Tucker Carlson) to argue that US actions in Venezuela invalidate Western criticism of the "Special Military Operation."
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Belgorod):
Kharkiv Sector: Tactical attrition is increasing. The loss of a UAF tank to an FPV drone (0014Z) confirms that RF forces are maintaining high-density loitering munition coverage despite the focus on the "Energy Siege." This activity correlates with the logistics surge noted at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (SAR 18.95).
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Horlivka Sector:STILL UNCONFIRMED. No new data corroborated the 2350Z (07 JAN) report of ground probes toward Yablonevka. However, the tank loss in the adjacent Kharkiv sector suggests a broader RF intent to fix UAF armor in place.
Donetsk Sector: Heavy KAB bombardment remains the baseline. The lack of new ground-gain claims suggests a momentary pause or a shift to night-time consolidation.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
Dnipropetrovsk Sector: No update on the "near-total blackout." The silence suggests the grid remains in a state of critical failure.
Zaporizhzhia Sector: Power restoration for "key objects" (2355Z, 07 JAN) is holding, but civilian displacement to "Invincibility Points" continues.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations: The RF is successfully integrating FPV drones into their "Zapad" group operations in Kharkiv to compensate for the MTZ warehouse losses reported in Belgorod (1001Z, 07 JAN).
Logistics Status: The 260th GRAU Arsenal remains the highest strategic threat. The FPV activity in Kharkiv may be a preliminary effort to degrade UAF defensive screens before the arrival of the ammunition surge identified in the SAR data.
Command and Control (C2): RF state media (TASS) is synchronized with tactical developments, immediately pivoting to amplify US domestic friction (Minneapolis) and diplomatic movements (Colombia) to dilute the impact of impending sanctions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF units in the Kharkiv sector are facing increased pressure from low-cost precision strikes (FPV). Armor survivability is currently a localized concern.
Resilience Operations: Technical teams continue to work under "Energy Siege" conditions. The rapid dissemination of US political support for sanctions (0022Z) is being used to maintain morale among front-line units.
Information environment / disinformation
"Whataboutism" Campaign: The RF is aggressively using the Venezuela/Carlson narrative (0010Z) to neutralize the "Shadow Fleet" seizure narrative. By framing the US as a "pirate" or "imperialist," they aim to reduce the diplomatic cost of their own maritime failures.
Social Friction Exploitation: The Minneapolis shooting (0020Z) is likely to be integrated into RF-aligned Telegram channels to argue that the US is too unstable to provide long-term security guarantees to Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued high-frequency FPV and UAV strikes in the Kharkiv and Donbas sectors to prevent UAF from repositioning reserves ahead of a larger kinetic push.
MDCOA: Launch of a major missile/MLRS salvo from the 260th GRAU Arsenal, timed with the peak of the Dnipro blackout to maximize psychological impact and C2 paralysis.
Key Decision Point: UAF must assess if the tank loss in Kharkiv indicates a "blind spot" in local Electronic Warfare (EW) coverage and adjust mobile jamming assets accordingly.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kharkiv EW Assessment: Why did the UAF tank lack sufficient FPV protection? Request data on RF drone frequencies used in the 0014Z strike.
260th GRAU Output: Immediate requirement for updated SAR or HUMINT on rail movements out of the 260th Arsenal. Are munitions moving toward the "Zapad" (Kharkiv) or "Yug" (Donetsk) groups?
Dnipro Grid BDA: Confirm if the total blackout in Dnipropetrovsk is affecting UAF railway logistics for the Southern front.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The theater remains characterized by a "Dual-Track Attrition" strategy. The RF is executing high-intensity infrastructure strikes in the rear (Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia) while conducting low-intensity but high-impact tactical strikes at the front (Kharkiv FPV strike).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: RF is using "Narrative Shields"—using US domestic news and Western contrarian voices to mask their tactical vulnerabilities (e.g., the inability to defend the Shadow Fleet).
Capabilities: High confidence in RF ability to maintain FPV pressure even when strategic logistics (MTZ warehouses) are disrupted.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: Ukrainian forces are effectively managing the civil-humanitarian crisis but are showing tactical vulnerabilities to attritional drone warfare in the Northern sector.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain: The news of Trump supporting Graham’s sanctions (0022Z) is a critical counter-narrative to the RF's "Economic Normalcy" IO. This belief (Dempster-Shafer: 0.229) is the most significant diplomatic development in the last 6 hours.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify "double-tap" strikes on energy infrastructure in Dnipro during the pre-dawn hours to prevent repair crews from restoring the grid.
Timeline: Monitoring the 0400Z-0600Z window for the first arrival of GRAU-supplied munitions to the frontline.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Tactical EW Deployment: Shift tactical EW teams to the Kharkiv sector to counter the observed FPV threat. Prioritize armor protection.
Sanctions Exploitation: Ukrainian StratCom should immediately amplify Trump’s reported support for sanctions to neutral trading partners (India/UAE) to accelerate the "Sanctions Anxiety" identified in previous reports.
Grid Protection: Maintain high-alert for air defense units near "Invincibility Points" in Zaporizhzhia, as these concentrations of civilians and power assets are likely secondary targets for RF intimidation strikes.
