Localized Ground Assault - Horlivka Sector (2350Z, Slivochny Kapriz, LOW): Unconfirmed reports of tactical probes/assaults between Yablonevka and Konstantinovka (SW of Horlivka).
Economic Warfare Escalation (2330Z, Operativno ZSU/Sen. Graham, MEDIUM): Reports specify the Graham-Blumenthal bill includes 500% tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, a significant intensification of secondary sanctions.
Power Restoration Confirmed - Zaporizhzhia (2355Z, RBC-UA/OVA, HIGH): Official confirmation that voltage has been restored to all "key objects" following the 2230Z strikes.
Civilian Humanitarian Load (2329Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Over 200 civilians have transitioned to "Invincibility Points" in Zaporizhzhia city, indicating sustained localized grid instability despite technical restoration.
Russian Information Operation - US "Empire" Narrative (2330Z, TASS, MEDIUM): RF state media is amplifying Tucker Carlson’s critiques of US operations in Venezuela to frame US foreign policy as imperialist expansion.
Russian Domestic Logistics (2354Z, TASS, LOW): RF Ministry of Transport announced full-scale construction of the Moscow-St. Petersburg high-speed rail for 2026, likely a "signal of normalcy" IO.
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Horlivka Sector:UNCONFIRMED / LOW CONFIDENCE. A single report (2350Z) indicates kinetic activity between Konstantinovka and Yablonevka. If corroborated, this suggests the RF is attempting to exploit the KAB-softened lines mentioned in the previous daily report to push toward the H-20 highway or threaten the southern flank of the Toretsk/Konstantinovka defensive belt.
Donetsk Sector: High-intensity KAB bombardment continues to facilitate ground probes, though transition to nocturnal operations may slow reporting.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The sector has moved from "Kinetic Crisis" to "Logistical Recovery." While power is restored to "key objects" (2355Z), the high volume of civilians at emergency stations (200+) suggests that the residential/tertiary grid remains offline or unstable.
Dnipropetrovsk Sector: No new updates on the "near-total blackout" reported at 2308Z. The situation remains CRITICAL. The lack of restoration reports (unlike Zaporizhzhia) suggests the damage to the distribution node is severe or requires specialized components.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: The RF appears to be transitioning from pure infrastructure strikes (Dnipropetrovsk) to localized ground probes (Horlivka). This suggests a "Strike-and-Probe" cycle where grid failures are used to mask tactical movements or disrupt UAF command and control (C2).
Information Operations: The TASS focus on Venezuela (2330Z) and high-speed rail (2354Z) indicates an attempt to divert international attention from the "Shadow Fleet" seizures and project a façade of domestic economic stability.
Ammunition Flow: The 260th GRAU Arsenal (SAR 18.95) remains the primary indicator for a major upcoming missile surge. Current ground probes in Horlivka may be intended to fix UAF reserves before a larger strategic strike.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Civilian Resilience: UAF and OVA units are successfully managing the humanitarian aspect of the energy siege. The activation of "Invincibility Points" is acting as a pressure valve for municipal stability.
Technical Repair: The rapid re-energization of Zaporizhzhia's key nodes (2355Z) demonstrates high competency in modular grid repair.
Strategic Communication: Ukrainian channels are rapidly disseminating the "500% tariff" news (2330Z) to bolster morale and signal that the RF's economic isolation is deepening despite current battlefield pressure.
Information environment / disinformation
"Empire" Narrative: The RF is leveraging Western contrarian voices (Tucker Carlson) to build a "Global South" coalition against US-led sanctions. This targets international audiences skeptical of US maritime interventions (Venezuela/Shadow Fleet).
Normalcy IO: The Moscow-SPB rail announcement is a classic strategic distraction intended to signal that the RF economy is not on a total war footing, despite the GRAU arsenal activity.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued ground probes in the Horlivka-Yablonevka sector to test the responsiveness of UAF units currently operating under power-limited conditions.
MDCOA: RF uses the blackout in Dnipropetrovsk to launch a localized offensive in a secondary sector (e.g., Huliaipole or Sumy), banking on delayed Ukrainian communication and reinforcement.
Timeline: Monitoring the 0300Z-0500Z window for the arrival of munitions from the 260th GRAU Arsenal to front-line launch positions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Horlivka Ground Truth: Priority 1. Confirm the scale of activity between Yablonevka and Konstantinovka. Is this a platoon-sized probe or a company-plus assault?
Dnipro Grid Status: Request BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) on the Dnipropetrovsk distribution node. Why has it not seen the rapid restoration observed in Zaporizhzhia?
500% Tariff Impact: Assess the likelihood of third-party countries (e.g., India, Turkey) complying with the Graham-Blumenthal proposal.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently split between a tactical probe in the East (Horlivka) and a humanitarian stabilization effort in the South (Zaporizhzhia). The strategic "Energy Siege" remains the dominant factor affecting civilian morale and rear-area logistics.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Course of Action: The RF is utilizing a "Horizontal Escalation" strategy—striking energy in one oblast (Dnipro) while probing ground defenses in another (Donetsk).
Recent Adaptation: Use of domestic infrastructure announcements and Western political commentary to mitigate the "Piracy" and "Sanctions" narratives.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: Defensive-Resilient. UAF engineering and civil defense are the current primary "combatants" in the Southern axis.
Successes: Restoration of power in Zaporizhzhia prevents the total collapse of the Southern logistics hub.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain: The reporting of 500% tariffs (2330Z) is a high-impact narrative tool that counters the Russian "Economic Normalcy" IO. It creates a credible threat to the RF's remaining revenue streams.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the blackout in Dnipro through intermittent "harassment" strikes on repair crews, while attempting a tactical breakthrough near Horlivka to sever the H-20 supply line.
Decision Point: If ground probes in Horlivka transition to armored assaults, UAF must decide whether to commit reserves despite the ongoing "Blackout Belt" disruption.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
ISR Tasking: Immediate drone overflight of the Yablonevka-Konstantinovka axis to identify RF staging areas.
Logistics Hardening: Units in Dnipropetrovsk must assume 24h+ of total blackout; transition all C2 to independent power and satellite communications immediately.
Strategic IO: Amplify the 500% tariff details to Russian-aligned economic partners to induce "Sanctions Anxiety" and disrupt the RF's oil export negotiations.
