Gradual Infrastructure Recovery - Zaporizhzhia (2214Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, MEDIUM): Municipal water supply is reportedly being restored incrementally across Zaporizhzhia city following the total blackout.
Critical Backup Operations (2202Z, Filatov/RBC-UA, HIGH): All municipal hospitals in Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia have successfully transitioned to autonomous power (generators) and maintain necessary water reserves.
Active UAV Threat - Kryvyi Rih (2215Z, Vanek, HIGH): A new "Shahed" type loitering munition has been detected vectoring toward Kryvyi Rih; previous groups in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were neutralized or exited the AOR.
Civilian Resilience Deployment (2159Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): 166 out of 175 "Points of Invincibility" (emergency shelters with power/heat) are now fully operational in Zaporizhzhia.
Confirmed Defensive Success - Pokrovsk (2211Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Official confirmation and video evidence released of the 46th Airmobile Brigade repelling a massed Russian mechanized assault.
Significant Diplomatic Narrative Shift (2221Z, TASS, LOW): Russian state media is reporting a White House order for US withdrawal from 66 international organizations; currently assessed as a high-impact information operation (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.46).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
Zaporizhzhia: The situation is transitioning from "total collapse" to "emergency management." The restoration of water (2214Z) and the activation of 95% of "Points of Invincibility" (2159Z) indicates effective civil defense despite the lack of a primary power grid.
Dnipro: High state of readiness. Ukrenergo has issued an urgent request for "extreme thriftiness" in consumption (2200Z), suggesting the local grid is under extreme load or operating on fragile bypass circuits.
Kryvyi Rih: Remains the primary kinetic focus in the rear. After the initial neutralization of UAV groups (2205Z), a single new unit is inbound (2215Z), likely targeting the already damaged water/power infrastructure identified in the previous daily report.
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Pokrovsk Sector: Operational tempo remains high. The 46th Airmobile Brigade's success (2211Z) confirms that the frontline remains stable despite the infrastructure pressure in the rear. Russian forces appear to be committing significant mechanized assets to break the H-15/Pokrovsk defensive nodes, but lack the coordination to bypass UAF anti-armor measures.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Tactics: The RF is employing a "staggered arrival" tactic. By launching a single new "Shahed" toward Kryvyi Rih (2215Z) immediately after the previous group was cleared, they aim to keep air defense crews in a state of constant fatigue and prevent repair teams from working on the de-energized grid.
Strategic Logistics: No change from the critical threat at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (SAR 18.95). The current UAV activity is likely a precursor to a larger missile/rocket salvo staged from this facility.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Sustainability: Successful pivot to decentralized power for medical facilities (2202Z) demonstrates high readiness for "island mode" operations.
Kinetic: Air defense remains active over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, successfully neutralizing the bulk of the evening's loitering munition wave (2215Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Diversion: There is a heavy influx of Russian-sourced reporting on US foreign policy (Vance/Trump on Venezuela) and international withdrawals (2203Z-2221Z).
Assessment: This is likely a coordinated effort to dominate the global information space and distract from the humanitarian crisis caused by the deliberate targeting of the Ukrainian energy grid. The claim of withdrawal from 66 international organizations is particularly potent and intended to project an image of Western isolationism.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued harassment of Kryvyi Rih by individual loitering munitions to inhibit grid repairs. Stabilization of water services in Zaporizhzhia, but power grid remains offline through dawn.
MDCOA: A renewed wave of KAB strikes or a coordinated missile strike targeting the "Points of Invincibility" or hospital hubs identified in recent civil administration updates.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Grid Load: Determine if the "extreme thriftiness" request in Dnipro (2200Z) is due to damage to the 750kV backbone or localized transformer failures.
Pokrovsk Attrition: Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of the 46th Brigade engagement to determine the status of the RF 90th Tank Division reserves.
Kryvyi Rih AD: Monitor ammunition expenditure for short-range AD systems in Kryvyi Rih against the single-inbound UAV threat.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is expanding into a "sustained siege" of the Ukrainian rear. While the frontline (Pokrovsk) remains kinetically stable, the rear-area infrastructure in Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia is being pushed to the point of structural failure. The shift to generator power for hospitals (2202Z) buys time but increases reliance on fuel logistics.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intentions: To force a humanitarian evacuation of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro by making the cities uninhabitable through the loss of water and heat during winter.
Tactical Adaptation: The move from massed UAV waves to "trickle" attacks (2215Z) forces constant air raid alerts, preventing the normalization of civilian life and complicating repair efforts.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF maintains tactical control in the East. Civil-Military cooperation in the South is effectively managing the blackout (166 Points of Invincibility active).
Constraints: Heavy reliance on mobile power generation. Fuel supply lines to the South must now be prioritized to maintain hospital and emergency shelter operations.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeting US Stability: The high volume of TASS reporting on JD Vance and Donald Trump (2203Z, 2211Z, 2221Z) suggests Moscow is attempting to link the conflict's outcome to perceived US political volatility, likely targeting Western domestic audiences to reduce support.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely COA: RF will continue "pulsed" UAV attacks through 0600Z. If the water restoration in Zaporizhzhia (2214Z) proceeds, expect kinetic targeting of pump stations within the next 12 hours.
Decision Point: If the single "Shahed" (2215Z) successfully impacts Kryvyi Rih infrastructure, the city may face a complete evacuation of specific districts.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Fuel Logistics: Expedite diesel shipments to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro municipal authorities to sustain hospital generators (Ref: 2202Z).
Air Defense Re-allocation: Deploy C-RAM or mobile fire groups specifically to protect "Points of Invincibility" and primary water pumping stations currently under restoration (Ref: 2159Z, 2214Z).
Strategic Communication: Release 46th Brigade footage (2211Z) immediately to international media to counter the "Western isolation" narrative with proof of ongoing military effectiveness.
