Total Regional De-energization (2132Z, Ministry of Energy/Colonelcassad, HIGH): Ministry of Energy confirms Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are almost entirely without power due to successful strikes on key sub-stations.
Failure of Civil Defense Warning Systems (2143Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Air raid sirens are non-functional in Zaporizhzhia city due to the blackout. Authorities are issuing alerts via mobile/alternative channels.
Mobile Network Degradation (2129Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Communications in Zaporizhzhia Oblast have transitioned to "emergency mode," with officials requesting civilians limit usage to essential calls (2133Z).
Localized Infrastructure Crisis - Kryvyi Rih (2152Z, Vilkul, HIGH): The Inhuletskyi and Metaluirhiynyi districts are facing critical power/water failures with no estimated time for restoration.
Active UAV Vector Shift (2136Z-2144Z, UAF Air Force/Vanek, HIGH): UAV groups are currently vectoring toward Dnipro and Kamianske; approximately three (3) "Shahed" type munitions remain active in the area (2149Z).
Repelled Massed Assault in Pokrovsk (2152Z, 46th Airmobile Bde, MEDIUM): UAF forces successfully thwarted a large-scale Russian mechanized/infantry push in the Pokrovsk sector.
Maritime Legal Escalation (2129Z, TASS/US DOJ, MEDIUM): US Department of Justice announces intent to file criminal charges against the crew of the seized "Shadow Fleet" tanker Marinera.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk):
Zaporizhzhia: The sector is experiencing a total system collapse of critical infrastructure. The failure of air raid sirens (2143Z) during active KAB/UAV threats significantly increases the risk of mass civilian casualties. Emergency services are utilizing alternative communication lines (2144Z).
Dnipro/Kamianske: Currently under active UAV threat (2144Z). The grid failure is being exploited by Russian loitering munitions to strike secondary targets while defenses are potentially degraded by lack of centralized C2/communications.
Kryvyi Rih: Conditions in the southern industrial districts (Inhuletskyi/Metaluirhiynyi) are deteriorating. The lack of a restoration timeline (2152Z) suggests major hardware damage at the distribution level.
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Pokrovsk Sector: Remained the focus of Russian ground activity. The 46th Airmobile Brigade reports a successful defense against a massed assault (2152Z), indicating that despite rear-area infrastructure strikes, frontline combat effectiveness remains intact.
Technology Employment: UAF 336th Marine Brigade is confirmed to be using fiber-optic guided drones (unaffected by EW) against Russian mounted personnel (2147Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: The RF is synchronizing infrastructure destruction with "communication blackouts." By forcing mobile networks into emergency mode and disabling sirens, they are creating a "fog of war" in the tactical rear to facilitate uninterrupted strikes.
Aviation: KAB strikes remain the primary tool for suppressing Zaporizhzhia, while Shaheds (3 remaining at 2149Z) are used for precision strikes on de-energized urban centers.
Logistics (RF Rear): Reports of botulism in Podmoskovye (2151Z) may indicate minor degradation in food supply chain quality control, though this is currently assessed as having no tactical impact.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Continued active tracking of UAVs (Air Force, 2129Z). At least one UAV group was neutralized ("minus") at 2135Z.
Ground Forces: Maintaining high readiness in the Pokrovsk direction. Integration of new drone technologies (fiber-optic) is providing a tactical edge in high-EW environments.
Civil Administration: Rapid pivot to emergency communication protocols (alternative numbers for 101/102/103) in Zaporizhzhia.
Information environment / disinformation
"State Piracy" Narrative: Russian state media (TASS) is heavily promoting the narrative that the Marinera seizure is "legalized theft" (2144Z). This is likely intended to build a domestic pretext for retaliatory seizures of Western assets in the Black Sea.
Distraction Operations: RU-aligned channels are circulating claims regarding US interest in Greenland (2149Z) to dilute focus from the critical humanitarian situation in Zaporizhzhia.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV pressure on Kamianske and Dnipro through 0400Z. RF will attempt to strike repair crews at key substations under the cover of the communication blackout.
MDCOA: A coordinated missile salvo from the Black Sea or 260th GRAU targeting the de-energized regions before dawn, capitalizing on the non-functional siren system to maximize lethality.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Siren Status: Confirm if mobile loudspeaker units have been deployed in Zaporizhzhia to mitigate the failed electronic siren system.
Kryvyi Rih Damage: Assess the specific nature of the failure in the Inhuletskyi district (Transformer vs. Distribution line).
Pokrovsk BDA: Request Battle Damage Assessment from the 46th Airmobile Brigade's repelled assault to determine if RF armored reserves were committed.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a "Dual-Oblast Blackout." The loss of the power grid in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia (2132Z) is no longer a localized inconvenience but a strategic threat to the stability of the Southern Front's logistics. The failure of sirens in Zaporizhzhia (2143Z) creates a critical vulnerability for civilian and military personnel.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: High-precision loitering munitions (Shahed) combined with regional-scale kinetic suppression of the grid.
Adaptation: Using the energy crisis to degrade Ukrainian SIGINT and civil defense responses.
Course of Action: Expect the RF to maintain a "persistent presence" of 3-5 UAVs over the blackout zones to discourage repair efforts and maintain psychological pressure (Ref: 2149Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture: UAF units are successfully holding the Pokrovsk line (2152Z). C2 remains functional via military-grade communications, though civil-military cooperation (CIMIC) is hampered by the mobile network "emergency mode" (2137Z).
Succeses: High-tech drone integration (336th Bde) continues to provide asymmetric advantages against RF personnel (2147Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeting US Policy: RF is framing US defense budget goals ($1.5T) as evidence of "militarist" aggression (2125Z) to justify their own industrial mobilization.
Legal Friction: The US intent to charge the Marinera crew (2129Z) will be used by Moscow to escalate maritime tensions.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Critical Window: 2200Z - 0600Z. The absence of sirens in Zaporizhzhia makes this the most dangerous period for a missile strike.
Decision Point: If power is not restored to the mobile network "backbone" within 6 hours, centralized civil defense in Zaporizhzhia will effectively cease to exist, requiring full military transition to urban management.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Signal Warning: Deploy mobile loudspeakers immediately to the Zaporizhzhia city center to provide air raid warnings (Ref: 2143Z).
Infrastructure Defense: Prioritize Kamianske and Kryvyi Rih (Inhuletskyi) for immediate Air Defense reinforcement to protect ongoing repair works (Ref: 2144Z, 2152Z).
Counter-Narrative: Publicize the use of emergency numbers and "Points of Invincibility" to counter Russian psychological operations regarding long-term power loss.
