Dual-Oblast Energy Collapse (2124Z, Ministry of Energy/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy confirms that massive Russian strikes have almost completely de-energized both the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
KAB Strikes on Zaporizhzhia (2111Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Active Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting Zaporizhzhia city/environs, compounding the grid failure.
Multi-Vector UAV Attack on Kryvyi Rih (2100Z-2104Z, Nikolaevsky Vanek/UAF Air Force, HIGH): "Shahed" type UAVs are approaching Kryvyi Rih from the East and South-East (Zaporizhzhia direction). Explosions were reported in the city at 2111Z (RBK-Ukraine).
Zaporizhzhia Resilience Activation (2105Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Local authorities have activated 120 "Points of Invincibility" to provide heat and power; city hospitals currently remain on backup/stable power (2100Z).
Destruction of UAF Drone Hub (2102Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Russian sources claim the 25th RHBZ Regiment destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center in Zaliznychne using "Molniya-2" loitering munitions.
Civic Panic in Dnipro (2123Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Reports of mass water purchasing by civilians in Dnipro following official advisories to stockpile supplies due to the blackout.
Operational picture (by sector)
Dnipropetrovsk/Southern Axis:
Dnipro City: The "total blackout" is now confirmed to include the failure of air raid warning systems and significant degradation of mobile communications (2109Z). This creates a "blind spot" for civil defense during ongoing missile/UAV threats.
Kryvyi Rih Sector: Under active kinetic pressure. The city is a primary target for the current wave of UAVs. The intersection of power loss and active bombardment suggests an attempt to paralyze the industrial and transit hub (RBK-Ukraine, 2111Z).
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The tactical rear is experiencing a simultaneous KAB and UAV assault. The "Points of Invincibility" (2105Z) indicate the city is preparing for a multi-day outage.
Russian Rear / Border Regions:
Air Defense Alerts: Red-level UAV threats were recently lifted in Lipetsk and Voronezh (2121Z), indicating a temporary lull in UAF deep-strike activity or the successful transit of Ukrainian assets to targets further inland.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry has shifted from a localized energy crisis in Dnipro to a regional systemic failure covering two of Ukraine's most critical industrial and logistical hubs. The blackout in Zaporizhzhia (confirmed 2124Z) is particularly critical as it impacts the immediate tactical rear of the Southern Front. The lack of functional air raid sirens in Dnipro (2109Z) increases the lethality of ongoing "double-tap" strikes.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Tactics: The RF is using a "synergistic strike" model: using heavy KABs to suppress Zaporizhzhia's immediate defenses while funneling loitering munitions toward Kryvyi Rih (2100Z). The claimed strike in Zaliznychne (2102Z) suggests a deliberate targeting of the UAF's "Baba Yaga" drone infrastructure to degrade night-interdiction capabilities.
Intentions (MLCOA): RF will likely use the communication blackout in Dnipro to launch a midnight missile salvo, banking on delayed civilian and military response times due to failed sirens.
Information Operations: RU channels are disseminating forged DTEK (energy provider) screenshots claiming power will not return until 2027 (2112Z). This is a high-effort psychological operation designed to induce long-term hopelessness in the de-energized regions.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Readiness: UAF Air Force remains active in tracking and reporting UAV vectors despite the grid failure. Regional OVAs are demonstrating high proficiency in "Black Start" resilience (opening 120 hubs in under an hour).
Constraints: The primary constraint is now the "water-power-heat" nexus. If the 2123Z panic buying depletes local retail stocks before municipal pumps can be restored via generators, a localized humanitarian crisis will emerge within 12 hours.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Domestic: The shift from "advisory" to "panic" (2123Z) in Dnipro indicates that official communication may be inadvertently stoking fear rather than orderly preparation.
International: Russian media is amplifying Donald Trump’s comments regarding a $1.5 trillion US military budget (2125Z), framing it as a "global arms race" to justify continued RF escalation and domestic mobilization.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The RF will continue the UAV pressure on Kryvyi Rih through 0300Z to prevent repair crews from accessing substations. The energy failure in Zaporizhzhia will begin to impact rail-head logistics for the Southern grouping of forces by dawn.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported destruction of the Zaliznychne drone hub (2102Z) as a gap in the line to launch a localized mechanized thrust while UAF "drone eyes" are degraded and the rear is in blackout.
Timeline: 0200Z-0400Z is the "Critical Repair Window." If the grid is not partially stabilized by then, the cumulative effect of the freeze and lack of communications will cause a breakdown in regional command and control (C2) for civil-military administration.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaliznychne BDA: Urgent need for overhead or SIGINT confirmation of the status of the drone control point in Zaliznychne.
Kryvyi Rih Impact: Identify if the 2111Z explosions hit the water utility (Gorvodokanal) or secondary power targets.
Black Sea Fleet Activity: Monitor for Kalibr-equipped vessels; a "blackout" provides an optimal window for sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM) strikes.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
C2 Resilience: Transition all regional military commands in Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia to Starlink and independent power immediately; bypass municipal fiber-optic lines which are likely failing (ref: 2109Z).
Civil Defense: Deploy mobile "Siren Units" (loudspeaker trucks) in Dnipro to replace the failed electronic alert system.
Counter-UAV Priority: Redirect mobile fire groups to the eastern approaches of Kryvyi Rih, as this is the confirmed flight path (2100Z).
