Ballistic Threat Rescinded (1113Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): The immediate threat of ballistic strikes has been cleared for Southern Ukraine; however, reconnaissance UAVs remain active over target areas (1101Z, Mykolaivskyi Vanek, HIGH).
Deep Strike BDA - Rybinsk (1121Z, CyberBoroshno/Radio Liberty, HIGH): Satellite imagery confirms a successful strike on the "Kombinat Temp" facility in Rybinsk (Yaroslavl Oblast). At least two fuel/chemical cisterns were destroyed.
Zaporizhzhia Sector Escalation (1100Z, Voin DV, HIGH): RF 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army conducted strikes on Ukrainian reserve concentrations in Staroukrainka, aimed at disrupting UAF pressure on the Hulyiaipole axis.
GUR Raid Confirmation (1116Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Video evidence released confirming the GUR "Bratstvo" unit's deep raid behind enemy lines in the Zaporizhzhia direction (Kakhovka Reservoir).
Sumy Isolation (1117Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, HIGH): RF forces have confirmed the destruction of the strategically vital bridge over the Znobovka River via drone footage, finalizing the tactical isolation of the northern Sumy border area.
Internal Unrest in Iran (1110Z, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Iranian authorities have lost control of the Malekshahi district (Western Iran); potential for regional distraction of RF’s primary drone supplier.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Sumy: The destruction of the Znobovka River bridge (1117Z) is a significant localized setback. This confirms RF "North" Group's intent to create a "sanitary zone" by severing UAF logistics rather than through permanent occupation.
Sloviansk Direction: The "Apachi" unit (81st Bde) is successfully utilizing FPV drones to hold defensive lines against intensified RF pressure (1104Z).
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Donetsk: RF "Rubicon" unit is actively conducting recon-strike missions in snowy conditions, likely leveraging thermal-capable UAVs to offset degraded visual ISR (1121Z).
Logistics: Pro-Russian sources report a "humanitarian" surge of two truckloads of supplies from Crimea to the DNR, likely masking small-arms ammunition resupply for front-line units (1125Z).
Southern Axis:
Zaporizhzhia (Hulyiaipole/Staroukrainka): RF is prioritizing the destruction of UAF reserves in Staroukrainka to prevent a breakout toward Hulyiaipole.
Kakhovka Reservoir: UAF "Bratstvo" unit (GUR) continues to demonstrate high maneuverability in the reservoir's dried sectors, maintaining a persistent threat to the RF rear (1116Z).
Strategic Rear (Russia):
Rybinsk (Yaroslavl Oblast): Strike on "Kombinat Temp" represents a significant penetration of RF deep-rear AD (approx. 700km from UA border).
Perm Krai: A private helicopter crash (1111Z) and mass poisoning in Sochi (1121Z) are assessed as non-combat incidents but may temporarily strain local emergency services and security apparatus.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: While the ballistic alert has ended, the SAR score of 21.65 at AB Voronezh Malshevo (from Daily Report) remains the primary indicator of an imminent KAB/missile saturation strike. The current lull is likely a "re-arming" phase.
Hybrid Operations: RF is heavily amplifying narratives of Western fatigue (Czech Republic flag removal, 1059Z) and regional instability (Venezuela/Iran) to distract from UAF deep strikes.
Adaptation: RF use of the "Rubicon" unit in heavy snow indicates an increased reliance on specialized all-weather electronic reconnaissance to maintain targeting data during the winter storm.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Interdiction: UAF continues to demonstrate a high success rate against RF strategic assets (Rybinsk strike). This forces RF to reallocate AD assets from the front to protect industrial infrastructure.
Active Defense: The 81st Brigade's "Apachi" unit is effectively substituting traditional artillery with donation-funded FPV drones on the Sloviansk axis, maintaining the line despite ammunition constraints.
Information environment / disinformation
Global Distraction: Russian channels are flooded with unconfirmed or contradictory reports of US military operations in Venezuela (1108Z, 1120Z). These are assessed as LOW CONFIDENCE noise intended to portray global US overextension.
Diplomatic Friction: Reports of the Ukrainian flag being removed from the Czech government building (1059Z) are being weaponized by TASS to signal eroding European support.
Negotiation Leaks: RF sources are framing Zelenskyy's Paris talks as a "capitulation" discussion regarding ZNPP (1103Z), which contradicts official UAF positions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Following the termination of the ballistic alert, RF will likely transition to a massed KAB campaign targeting Sumy and Donetsk, utilizing the Su-34/Su-35 airframes staged at Voronezh Malshevo.
MDCOA: RF 1st Guards Tank Army (Kharkiv) exploits the severed GLOCs in Sumy to launch a localized pincer movement against isolated UAF border units before bridging equipment can be deployed.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Rybinsk BDA: Determine if "Kombinat Temp" strike impacted specific chemical precursors used in solid-fuel rocket motor production. (HIGH)
Znobovka Bypass: Identify alternate fording sites or hidden bridging locations near the destroyed Znobovka bridge to prevent the entrapment of border units. (CRITICAL)
Voronezh Malshevo SAR Update: Request immediate overhead imagery to confirm if airframes have taxied to launch positions following the ballistic alert stand-down.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Counter-UAV Focus: Direct EW and MANPADS teams in Mykolaiv/Odesa to prioritize "blind-down" of the reconnaissance UAVs currently loitering post-ballistic alert (1101Z) to prevent BDA of previous strikes.
Sumy Logistics: Engineering units must immediately deploy mobile bridging assets toward the Znobovka sector under the cover of the ongoing snowstorm to restore GLOCs.
Strategic Comms: Counter the "Czech flag" and "Zelenskyy Paris" narratives by emphasizing the success of the Rybinsk strike to maintain domestic and international morale.
