Ballistic Strike Alert (1053Z, Mykolaivskyi Vanek/UA Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launch of ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea targeting Ochakiv (Mykolaiv Oblast). Air alerts active across Southern Ukraine.
GUR Deep Raid (1057Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Special unit "Bratstvo" (GUR MO) successfully conducted a deep reconnaissance and capture operation behind enemy lines in the Zaporizhzhia direction, specifically near the Kakhovka Reservoir.
Maritime Escalation (1045Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU/WSJ, MEDIUM): Reports confirm a Russian Federation (RF) submarine is actively escorting the "shadow fleet" tanker Bella 1 to evade US Coast Guard pursuit in the Atlantic.
Strategic Aviation Readiness (1047Z, Fighterbomber, HIGH): Visual confirmation of Tu-95MS ("Bear") strategic bombers active, corroborating earlier SAR spikes and the high probability of a "holiday" saturation strike.
ISR Penetration (1041Z-1048Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): RF reconnaissance UAVs detected and engaged over the Black Sea (near Odesa) and Southern Mykolaiv Oblast.
Kharkiv/Kupyansk Pressure (1032Z, Starshiye Eddy, MEDIUM): RF 1st Guards Tank Army claims destruction of a UAF T-64 and multiple UAV command posts in the Kupyansk district. (UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is shifting from localized skirmishes to a coordinated RF aerial and ballistic offensive. While a severe snowstorm degrades tactical FPV and ISR capabilities in the Donbas, the RF is leveraging all-weather ballistic systems and strategic aviation. Simultaneously, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SOF) have exploited gaps in the Zaporizhzhia frontline to conduct high-impact raids, likely aimed at disrupting RF preparations for a secondary axis of attack.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE BY SECTOR
Northern/Kharkiv Axis:
Kupyansk District: The RF 1st Guards Tank Army has intensified pressure on UAF positions. Enemy claims of destroying UAV command centers suggest a deliberate effort to degrade UAF's primary observation and strike capability in the sector (1032Z).
Sumy: Status remains critical following the Znobovka bridge destruction (from previous report); however, no new major ground maneuvers were reported in the last 2 hours.
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Aviation Activity: KAB strikes continue, supported by the Tu-95MS activity (1047Z), indicating that the RF "holiday" strike package is fully operational.
Southern Axis:
Zaporizhzhia (Kakhovka Reservoir): The GUR "Bratstvo" unit's deep raid (1057Z) demonstrates that despite the RF's deployment of "Kuryer" UGVs, the frontline near the reservoir remains porous to elite Ukrainian light infantry.
Ochakiv/Mykolaiv: Under active ballistic threat (1053Z). This follows a pattern of RF targeting port and coastal infrastructure to complicate UAF maritime operations.
Kherson: Continued RF terror shelling/drone strikes; one civilian fatality confirmed in the city (1038Z).
Maritime Domain:
Atlantic/Shadow Fleet: The transition of the Bella 1 pursuit into a direct US-RF military standoff (Submarine vs. Coast Guard) marks a significant expansion of the hybrid conflict into the global commons.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Strategic Intent: RF is executing a multi-domain pressure campaign. The use of Tu-95MS platforms and ballistic launches from Crimea suggests a "Holiday Strike" is currently in its kinetic phase.
Tactical Adaptation: In the Kharkiv sector, the RF is prioritizing the destruction of "UAV command posts" (1032Z), acknowledging that UAF's drone superiority is the primary obstacle to their 1st Guards Tank Army's advance.
Capabilities: RF continues to project power globally through its "shadow fleet" and naval assets, using its submarine fleet to challenge Western enforcement of sanctions.
4. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Special Operations: GUR MO units are maintaining the initiative in the South through high-risk raids. These operations serve as critical ISR and psychological warfare tools, forcing RF to pull reserves from the main line to secure their rear.
Air Defense: UA Air Force is actively engaging reconnaissance UAVs in the Odesa/Mykolaiv corridor. The transition to "ballistic threat" mode (1054Z) indicates AD units are now prioritized for intercepting high-velocity threats.
Readiness: Legal and administrative support for personnel (1036Z) indicates a focus on maintaining soldier rights and morale during a period of sustained high-intensity combat.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Propaganda: State media (TASS) is heavily promoting the Central African Republic (CAR) as a resource-rich partner (1038Z), likely to distract from domestic economic strain and highlight Russia's "global reach."
Disinformation: Narratives regarding "Trump and Greenland" (1046Z) are circulating in Ukrainian-adjacent spaces; assessed as low-effort noise intended to foster a sense of geopolitical instability.
Atrocity Reporting: Ukrainian sources are highlighting the death of a pensioner in Kherson (1038Z) to counter RF "holiday peace" narratives.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Ballistic strikes on Ochakiv and Mykolaiv will be followed by a massed wave of KABs or cruise missiles targeting the energy grid, timed for peak psychological impact during the Orthodox holiday.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF utilizes the ballistic surge to mask a tactical breakout attempt in the Kupyansk or Dobropillia sectors while UAF Air Defense is saturated by rear-area threats.
Environmental: Heavy snowfall will continue to ground most tactical UAVs, making the GUR SOF raids the primary source of ground-truth intelligence for the next 12 hours.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Ochakiv BDA: Urgent need to assess the impact of the ballistic strikes on Ochakiv port facilities. (HIGH)
Kakhovka Reservoir Posture: Determine if the GUR raid (1057Z) was a "hit-and-run" or if UAF has established a persistent observation post on the left bank.
Tu-95MS Sortie Count: Confirm the number of airframes currently airborne from AB Monchegorsk or Voronezh to estimate the scale of the incoming missile wave.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Air Defense Prioritization: Command should authorize immediate expenditure of interceptors against RF recon UAVs in the South to blind the enemy's BDA for the ongoing ballistic strikes.
SOF Exploitation: Capitalize on the success of the "Bratstvo" raid by leaking selective footage of the capture to degrade RF morale in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Civilian Safety: Re-emphasize "shelter-in-place" orders for Dnipro, Mykolaiv, and Odesa as the ballistic/aviation threat remains at CRITICAL levels.
