Strategic Strike (1001Z, GS AFU, HIGH): Ukrainian forces successfully struck an oil depot and a Material-Technical Support (MTZ) warehouse in the Belgorod region (RF) overnight.
Diplomatic Acceleration (1014Z, Zelenskiy Official, HIGH): Ukraine is engaged in a third session of high-level negotiations with US representatives within 48 hours. Focus is on the "basic framework" for ending the war, specifically the Zaporizhzhia NPP and territorial status.
Grid Degradation (1016Z, Ukrenergo, HIGH): A massed Russian drone attack overnight resulted in "significant" power outages across Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming successful penetration of rear-area Air Defense (AD).
Aviation Surge (1020Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Continued launch of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Donetsk Oblast, utilizing the Voronezh-Malshevo aviation concentration previously identified.
Unconfirmed RF Advance (1026Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim tactical gains in the "Dobropillia salient." This has not been corroborated by Ukrainian operational reports.
Naval Confrontation (1008Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Reports of a Russian submarine escorting a tanker currently being "pursued" by US forces in the Atlantic, signaling a widening of the maritime hybrid conflict.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a "retaliatory strike" cycle. Following UAF deep strikes on the Kostroma and Lipetsk facilities (Jan 6), the RF conducted a successful massed drone strike on Dnipropetrovsk energy infrastructure. The arrival of a severe snowstorm (17 m/s winds, zero visibility) is beginning to degrade tactical ISR and FPV drone effectiveness, forcing both sides to transition to localized infantry-heavy actions.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE BY SECTOR
Northern/Sumy Axis:
Belgorod Interdiction: UAF strikes on the Belgorod oil depot and MTZ warehouse (1001Z) are assessed as shaping operations to degrade the "Zapad" (Western) Group of Forces' ability to sustain the Kupyansk and Sumy border pressure.
Logistics: The previously destroyed Znobovka bridge continues to hamper UAF maneuver in the north, while the RF continues to leverage its "sanitary zone" narrative.
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Dobropillia Salient: RF claims of an advance here (1026Z) suggest an attempt to broaden the Pokrovsk offensive. If confirmed, this indicates a push to outflank UAF defensive positions protecting the H-15/H-20 junction. (UNCONFIRMED)
Novooalexandrovka: Footage confirms RF "Sparta" battalion activity; destruction of a UAF M113 reported (1003Z), suggesting high-intensity localized skirmishing persists despite the weather.
Aviation: KAB strikes remain the primary RF tool for suppressing UAF frontline positions in Donetsk (1020Z).
Southern Axis:
Zaporizhzhia/ZNPP: Negotiations in Paris have prioritized the status of the ZNPP (1014Z). On the ground, kinetic activity remains lower compared to the Donbas, but the "Kuryer" UGV threat persists.
Dnipropetrovsk Rear: Significant power outages following the drone wave will likely impact rail logistics and hospital operations in the Dnipro hub over the next 12-24 hours.
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Intent: RF is attempting to exploit the "weather window" before the full storm hits by utilizing KABs to clear paths for infantry.
Capabilities/Recruitment: Reports of "recruitment raids" and aggressive conscription in Russia (1001Z) suggest the RF is facing localized manpower shortages or is attempting to surge personnel for a late-winter push.
Ideological Hardening: Putin’s framing of the war as a "holy mission" (1017Z) and Patriarch Kirill’s critiques of "Western comfort" (1003Z) indicate a long-term commitment to a war of attrition, aimed at maintaining domestic support despite economic strain.
4. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Strategic Capability: The GS AFU continues to demonstrate a high tempo of deep interdiction (Belgorod, Kostroma, Lipetsk), indicating a resilient and geographically diverse long-range strike capability.
Tactical Innovation: Units like the "Ghost of Khortytsia" and the 77th Air Mobile Brigade (1006Z) continue to demonstrate high proficiency in drone-based attrition, though weather will severely restrict these assets in the immediate 6-12h window.
Diplomatic Posture: The frequency of meetings with US representatives (3 in 2 days) suggests Ukraine is pushing for a finalized security framework to hedge against international political volatility.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Propaganda: Central African Republic (CAR) President Touadera’s interview (1012Z) and narratives regarding US "neocolonialism" in Venezuela (1005Z) are being used to frame Russia as the leader of a "multipolar world."
Internal Friction: Russian milbloggers are amplifying legal challenges against Ursula von der Leyen (1028Z) to foster perceptions of Western disunity and corruption.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
MLCOA: As visibility drops due to heavy snow, RF will likely pause deep aviation strikes but increase "blind" mortar and tube artillery fire on UAF forward positions. Expect localized infantry probes in the "Dobropillia salient" and Lyman.
MDCOA: A coordinated RF "holiday" strike using the assets staged at AB Voronezh Malshevo, targeting the damaged Dnipropetrovsk grid nodes to cause a total regional blackout.
Environmental: Critical icing on GLOCs will make vehicle movement extremely hazardous; logistics will likely shift to tracked vehicles only by 1800Z.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Dobropillia BDA: Urgent need for SIGINT or thermal ISR to confirm/deny RF claims of an advance in the Dobropillia salient. (HIGH)
Belgorod Damage Assessment: Require satellite imagery of the Belgorod MTZ warehouse to determine if the strike impacted artillery ammunition or vehicle spare parts.
Naval Escalation: Confirm the location and status of the US-RF tanker "pursuit" in the Atlantic to assess risks of maritime escalation.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Energy Defense: Dnipropetrovsk military governors should immediately prioritize mobile power units for hospital and command centers following the "significant" outages reported by Ukrenergo.
Counter-Infantry Focus: Frontline units must re-zero thermal optics and acoustic sensors immediately; the incoming snowstorm will make FPV drones ineffective, shifting the tactical burden to traditional infantry watch and claymore-style mines.
Logistics: Pre-position recovery vehicles (ARVs) on the H-08 and H-11 routes to manage anticipated weather-related vehicle losses and ensure supply lines to the East remain open.
