US Support De-escalation: Reports indicate the US removed clear commitments to support Kyiv from the final joint statement of the "Coalition of the Willing," marking a significant diplomatic shift (Politico via Operativno ZSU, 0943Z, HIGH).
SZR Leadership Reshuffle: President Zelenskyy is actively seeking a new head for the Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR). Potential candidates include Dmytro Kuleba, Vasyl Maliuk, and Andriy Biletskyi (RBK-Ukraine, 0942Z, MEDIUM).
Tactical Adaptation to Weather: RF forces launched assault groups on ATVs/quad bikes near Yampil (Lyman sector) during heavy snowfall and zero visibility (Butusov Plus, 0936Z, HIGH).
Czech Ammunition Shift: Czech PM Babiš confirmed the ammunition initiative continues but stated Czechia will no longer fund purchases from its national budget (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 0934Z, HIGH).
Sumy Border Expansion: Pro-Russian sources claim tactical gains in Yunakivka (Sumy region); this remains UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources (Сливочный каприз, 0930Z, LOW).
Severe Weather Warning: Meteorological data predicts heavy snow, icing, and wind gusts up to 17 m/s in the border regions (Bryansk/Sumy) starting evening Jan 7 (AV БогомаZ, 0943Z, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by deteriorating weather conditions and a high-stakes diplomatic realignment. While kinetic intensity remains high in the Lyman and Kupyansk sectors, the focus has shifted toward institutional stability (SZR leadership) and the impact of the US pullback from formal security communiqués. A major snowstorm entering the AOR is likely to degrade aerial surveillance (ISR) and FPV drone effectiveness in the next 12 hours.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE BY SECTOR
Northern/Sumy Axis:
Yunakivka: Pro-RF channels claim localized tactical gains in this border settlement. If confirmed, this indicates an expansion of the RF "sanitary zone" effort beyond Hrabovske. (UNCONFIRMED; Сливочный каприз, 0930Z).
Air Domain: RF UAVs tracked in Dnipropetrovsk (Kamianske district) on a northern/north-western heading (UA Air Force, 0935Z).
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Lyman (Yampil): RF utilized "quad" assault groups to exploit a snowstorm, attempting to bypass UAF surveillance in low visibility. This confirms a shift toward small, high-mobility units when traditional armor is hampered by weather/drones (Butusov Plus, 0936Z).
Kupyansk: RF 1st Guards Tank Army claims to have "blocked" UAF formations and destroyed a T-64 tank and drone C2 nodes. UAF has not confirmed any encirclement in the sector. (UNCONFIRMED/PROBABLY EXAGGERATED; Poddubny, 0936Z).
Southern Axis:
Zaporizhzhia: UA Air Force confirmed multiple KAB (guided aerial bomb) launches. RF aviation continues to leverage stand-off ranges despite the weather (UA Air Force, 0956Z).
Crimea: Soldiers in the "Crimean borders" sector acknowledged receipt of AK magazines from volunteer funds, suggesting localized small-arms logistics remain reliant on non-state support (Два майора, 0950Z).
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Tactical Changes: The use of ATVs/quads during zero-visibility weather indicates a high level of tactical flexibility and a willingness to accept high casualty rates for incremental gains during "weather windows."
Capabilities: RF continues to integrate "anti-Shahed" or drone-interception tactics, as evidenced by Russian milbloggers celebrating successful counter-drone engagements (Воин DV, 0932Z).
External Support: President Touadera’s invitation for Putin to visit CAR reinforces the stability of the RF-Africa logistics and resource pipeline (TASS, 0943Z).
4. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Force Posture: UAF specialized drone units (e.g., "Bulava" of the Presidential Brigade) have demonstrated high proficiency, surpassing 120 Shahed intercepts, suggesting a robust localized AD network against loitering munitions (Presidential Brigade ZSU, 0937Z).
Leadership: The search for a new SZR head suggests a potential pivot in intelligence strategy, moving toward either more aggressive military-led intelligence (Biletskyi/Maliuk) or diplomatic-heavy intelligence (Kuleba).
Resource Constraints: The loss of Czech budgetary funding for the ammo initiative, coupled with the US diplomatic pivot, creates a mid-term risk for large-caliber shell availability.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Distraction: RF state media is heavily amplifying narratives about US-Russia naval tensions near Venezuela and potential US interest in Greenland (TASS, 0932Z; Alex Parker Returns, 0933Z). These are assessed as "noise" intended to distract from the diplomatic fallout of the Paris summit.
Morale Operations: High-profile Russian milblogger channels (Archangel Spetsnaz) are being publicly rewarded by the VDV command, signaling the tightening integration of "Z-bloggers" into the formal RF Ministry of Defense C2/IO structure (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, 0946Z).
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. The snowstorm will likely stall heavy armor movement, but RF will likely continue "blind" infantry assaults using quads/ATVs in the Lyman and Sumy sectors.
MDCOA: A major RF breakthrough in the Kupyansk "blocking" area if the reported UAF C2 nodes were successfully degraded.
Environmental: Energy rationing is likely to intensify as temperatures drop, testing the Hospital protection mandate.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Verification of Kupyansk Encirclement: Urgently require satellite or drone confirmation of RF 1st GTA positions near the Kupyansk City Hospital and southern rail links. (CRITICAL)
Yunakivka Status: Confirm if RF has established a permanent presence in Yunakivka or if this was a transient cross-border raid.
Ukrenergo Grid Load: Monitor the 0°C to -20°C transition; identify specific nodes at risk of "uncontrollable" failure despite government mandates.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Weather-Adaptive Defense: Units in the Lyman-Yampil sector should transition to "acoustic/thermal-primary" watchposts, as visual and drone-based ISR will be severely degraded by the snowstorm.
Logistics Pre-positioning: Move emergency ammunition and fuel to the Kupyansk sector immediately, prior to the snow-induced road icing (effective 1800Z).
Diplomatic Backchanneling: Security services must prepare briefing materials for potential new SZR leadership, focusing on the preservation of the Czech ammunition initiative via third-party funding.
