Maritime Standoff (Atlantic): US Coast Guard is reportedly pursuing the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) in the North Atlantic; RF warships and a submarine are reportedly interdicting to prevent seizure (0854Z, Alex Parker, MEDIUM).
Pokrovsk Sector Intensification: GSZSU confirms widespread combat across the axis, including Nykanorivka, Rodynske, Myrnohrad, and Hryshyne; RF is attempting deep bypasses of urban centers (0856Z, GSZSU, HIGH).
Strategic Diplomatic Friction: Reports indicate the US declined to sign a final declaration on security guarantees for Ukraine following a "coalition of the willing" meeting; Italy and Germany reiterated refusal to deploy troops (0834Z, Colonelcassad; 0852Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM).
UA Drone Procurement Surge: UA MoD reports reaching a production/delivery rate of over 1,500 "anti-Shahed" drones per day in the Dec-Jan period (0852Z, Operatyvny ZSU, HIGH).
Foreign Combatants: The 63rd Mechanized Brigade confirmed the capture of African nationals fighting for RF forces; these individuals lacked identification documents (0836Z, Nikolaevsky Vanyek, HIGH).
Sabotage in RF Rear: "Atesh" partisans reportedly destroyed a communications tower in the Kursk region via arson (0849Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
Lviv Infrastructure: Power partially restored to critical infrastructure following direct negotiations between local government and the Cabinet of Ministers (0839Z, Operatyvny ZSU, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The battlefield geometry is characterized by extreme pressure on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad salient and a secondary focus on Lyman. Weather conditions continue to restrict heavy armor maneuver, leading to a reliance on tactical aviation (KABs) and high-attrition infantry assaults supported by foreign mercenaries. A significant out-of-theater escalation is occurring in the North Atlantic, potentially diverting Western naval attention.
2. OPERATIONAL PICTURE BY SECTOR (IPB Step 2 & 3)
Northern/Kharkiv Axis:
Vovchansk/Starytsa: Intense clashes reported yesterday; the frontline remains fluid with high-frequency urban skirmishes (0856Z, GSZSU).
Kupyansk: Combat concentrated near Pischane and Kurylivka; RF intent is to secure rail-adjacent settlements to support logistics.
Eastern Axis (Donbas):
Lyman: A high-intensity engagement zone. RF is pushing toward Drobysheve and Ozerne, attempting to flank UAF positions through forested terrain to avoid drone detection (0856Z, GSZSU).
Kramatorsk/Chasiv Yar: RF continues assaults on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar and toward Bondarne. Tactical aviation is actively softening defensive lines with KABs (0848Z, UAF Air Force).
Pokrovsk (Critical): The most active sector. Fighting is reported in over 12 settlements simultaneously. RF is moving toward Hryshyne and Udachne, suggesting an operational goal to sever the main western supply routes into the Donbas (0856Z, GSZSU).
Southern Axis:
Zaporizhzhia: RF airstrikes conducted against Vozdvyzhivka and Yulyivka. A single UAV was detected entering Zaporizhzhia city from the south at 0841Z (0841Z, UAF Air Force; 0856Z, GSZSU).
Huliaipole: Increased RF ground activity reported, likely a fixing operation to prevent UAF redeployments to the Pokrovsk front (0832Z, Slivochny Kapriz).
3. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities/Adaptation: RF is increasingly utilizing "expendable" foreign nationals (specifically from African nations) for high-risk assaults to preserve core units.
Logistics: While the Kostroma strike impacted ammunition flow (see previous Sitrep), the reliance on KAB strikes remains undiminished, indicating sustained sortie rates from AB Voronezh Malshevo.
Course of Action (COA): RF is shifting from frontal urban assaults to wide bypass maneuvers in the Pokrovsk sector, aiming to force UAF "pockets" rather than house-to-house fighting.
4. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Logistics: Ukraine’s domestic production of counter-UAV systems (1,500/day) provides a significant buffer against the "Shahed" saturation tactics documented over the last 48 hours.
Morale/Readiness: UAF continues to execute effective deep-rear sabotage (Kursk tower strike) and maintains high intercept rates in the south. However, the lack of a signed security guarantee from the US (if confirmed) may impact long-term strategic planning.
5. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic IO: RF channels are heavily amplifying the US refusal to sign guarantees and the German/Italian "no troops" stance to demoralize the Ukrainian public during the Orthodox Christmas holiday (0852Z, Operatsiya Z).
Ideological Shift: Patriarch Kirill’s framing of the war as a civilizational "spiritual" conflict suggests the Kremlin is hardening its domestic narrative for a long-term war of attrition (0853Z, TASS).
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB saturation of the Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk axes. RF will likely attempt to exploit the "Christmas" period with localized infantry pushes while UAF focuses on counter-drone defense.
MDCOA: A naval skirmish in the North Atlantic between the USCG and Russian Navy assets, leading to a broader diplomatic crisis and potential Russian "asymmetric" responses against Western maritime commerce.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
UNCONFIRMED: US Security Guarantee Status. Verify via official MoFA/State Dept channels whether the refusal to sign the declaration is a total rejection or a delay based on specific clauses. (HIGH PRIORITY)
Atlantic Maritime ORBAT. Confirm the location and status of the RF submarine and warships assisting the Marinera.
Foreign Mercenary Scale. Identify the recruitment pipelines for the African nationals captured by the 63rd Bde to disrupt RF manpower flows.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Counter-Bypass Maneuver: Deploy reserve mobile anti-tank platoons to the Hryshyne-Udachne line to intercept RF units attempting to bypass Pokrovsk urban strongpoints.
VSHORAD Distribution: Prioritize the 1,500 new "anti-Shahed" drones to the Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia sectors to counter the southern UAV ingress route.
Strategic Comms: Counter the "abandonment" narrative by highlighting the Lithuanian commitment to post-war troops and continued Czech ammunition initiatives.
