Lviv Energy Recovery: Emergency power restored to critical infrastructure in Lviv following overnight outages; weather-related grid instability remains a risk (0826Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
Expansion of Shahed Production: Russian sources claim a significant increase in the production of long-range strike UAVs (Geran-2 type), citing recent statements from UAF leadership regarding the scale of the threat (0804Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM).
Krasnoarmiyske (Pokrovsk) Sector Intensification: Active combat confirmed in Grishino, Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk), and Myrnohrad; RF units attempting to bypass urban strongpoints (0820Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
German Military Posture: Chancellor Merz stated German troops will not be deployed to Ukraine even in the event of a ceasefire, clarifying Western "boots on the ground" boundaries (0759Z, Bild/Tsaplienko, HIGH).
Atlantic Naval Friction: Russian Navy has reportedly deployed surface vessels and a submarine to the Atlantic to prevent US interdiction of a Russian-flagged tanker; WSJ sources confirm the standoff (0813Z, Sternenko/WSJ, MEDIUM).
Kramatorsk Casualty Update: Local authorities confirm two female civilians injured in the KAB strike reported earlier (0808Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Sumy: New UAV sightings (Shahed-type) entering Sumy from the north (0800Z, UAF Air Force). This confirms the persistence of the "Northern Launch" tactic to bypass southern AD concentrations.
Donetsk (Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad): Combat is concentrating around Grishino and Myrnohrad. RF is using FPV drones to target UAF communication antennas and transport (Kozak vehicles) in the Novoandriivka/Raiske vicinity (0759Z, NM DNR).
Kramatorsk: Remains a primary target for tactical aviation (KAB strikes); BDA indicates civilian harm and urban degradation.
Southern/Rear Axis:
Dnipropetrovsk/Kryvyi Rih: RF UAVs currently transiting Synelnykove district on a westward course toward Dnipro city (0820Z, 0823Z, UAF Air Force). Strike on an industrial enterprise in Kryvyi Rih confirmed by local authorities (0759Z, ASTRA).
Belgorod (RF): Reported death of a civilian due to a UAF drone detonation (0818Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: Sustained high-tempo operations out of AB Voronezh Malshevo. The focus remains on degrading UAF frontline logistics and electronic warfare (EW) capabilities via FPV and KAB strikes.
Drone Saturation: The reported increase in domestic RF drone production suggests that the current "100+ UAV" raid frequency may become the new operational baseline for early 2026.
Hybrid/Maritime: The deployment of naval assets to the Atlantic indicates Russia's willingness to engage in "out-of-area" maritime brinkmanship to protect its shadow oil fleet, potentially stretching US/NATO naval resources.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Southern Defense: The Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine report the liquidation of over 300 personnel and 70 units of equipment in the last 24 hours, alongside 40 Shahed intercepts (0816Z, Southern Defense Forces, HIGH).
Deep Interdiction: Unspecified "Symmetry" operations (Unmanned Systems Forces) reportedly struck 21 objects in occupied territories and the RF mainland between Jan 2-7 (0822Z, Operativno ZSU).
Economic Resilience: Government launching new financial support for the agricultural sector via non-bank institutions to ensure 2026 planting viability despite the war (0802Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA).
Information environment / disinformation
"Abandonment" Narrative: RF channels are amplifying Chancellor Merz's "no German troops" statement to foster a narrative of fading Western commitment (0759Z, Tsaplienko).
Mobilization Fear: Ongoing amplification of "TCC (mobilization officer) kidnapping" videos intended to trigger domestic civil unrest (0759Z, Basurin).
Environmental IO (Armenia): Rybar is pushing a narrative that Western-backed gold mining in Armenia is a "colonial theft," likely to destabilize Western-leaning sentiments in the Caucasus (0808Z, Rybar).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV transit toward Dnipro and Western Ukraine. RF will likely attempt a second wave of Shahed launches from the Northern vector NLT 2200Z tonight.
MDCOA: Combined missile/drone strike targeting the recently restored Lviv energy nodes to trigger a complete grid collapse during current winter weather conditions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Atlantic Naval ORBAT: Precise identification of the Russian submarine type (e.g., Yasen vs. Kilo class) in the Atlantic to assess the escalation risk.
Shahed Production Data: Confirm whether the claimed production surge is based on new factories (e.g., Alabuga expansion) or components from new sources.
Pokrovsk Maneuver: Assess if RF "bypassing" of Myrnohrad indicates a lack of urban combat capacity or a broader encirclement intent.
IPB Summary
SITUATION: Multi-axis UAV saturation continues. Lviv grid is fragile but operational. Frontline fighting in Donbas is transitioning into high-intensity urban approach operations.
THREAT: RF is pivoting to maritime force projection and domestic industrial scaling. Tactical focus remains on cutting UAF comms via FPV strikes.
FRIENDLY: UAF maintains high intercept rates in the South but faces a persistent threat from KABs in the East.
INFO ENV: Focus on exploiting Western diplomatic "red lines" and inciting domestic Ukrainian friction regarding mobilization.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Strategic Comms: Publicly frame the German troop refusal as consistent with existing NATO policy to neutralize RF "abandonment" narratives.
Signal Protection: Pre-position mobile EW teams in Novoandriivka/Raiske to counter the documented RF focus on communication antennas.
Energy Defense: Deploy additional VSHORAD assets to Lviv critical infrastructure to protect restored power nodes from follow-on UAV strikes.
