Situation Update (0700Z 07 JAN 26)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Lviv Grid Policy Shift: Power cuts to Lviv hospitals and municipal transport are confirmed as the result of a Cabinet of Ministers (Central Government) directive changing "criticality criteria," rather than direct kinetic damage (0650Z, Mayor Sadovyi via Tsaplienko, HIGH).
- Emerging Air Threat (Kryvyi Rih): RF UAVs (Shahed/Geran type) detected on an eastern approach toward Kryvyi Rih (0639Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
- RF Infantry Attrition (Huliaipole): Video evidence confirms a high-casualty engagement for RF "disposable" assault units near Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (0648Z, Butusov, HIGH).
- Strategic Security Guarantees: Belgium has formally signaled readiness to commit naval and air assets as part of future security guarantees for Ukraine (0648Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
- Information Warfare (Myrotvorets): RF-aligned sources are amplifying claims that minors have been added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" database, likely a coordinated effort to delegitimize UAF-aligned civilian intelligence (0635Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM).
- Fabricated Geopolitics: Circulation of a report regarding US demands for Venezuela to sever ties with Russia is assessed as a fabricated information operation (0656Z, Tsaplienko, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
In the Huliaipole sector, UAF tactical units successfully intercepted and neutralized a group of RF "disposable" (likely Storm-Z or similar low-quality) infantry. This correlates with previous reports of RF using non-standard mobility and lacking standard PPE. The high attrition rate indicates that despite RF's "firepower over maneuver" strategy, their infantry remains highly vulnerable in the Zaporizhzhia steppe.
Central/Rear (Kryvyi Rih/Lviv):
Kryvyi Rih is under immediate threat from a UAV wave originating from the east. This follows a previous ballistic strike (Jan 6) in the same area, suggesting the RF is exploiting a perceived "blind spot" in local air defense coverage.
In Lviv, the crisis has transitioned from a suspected kinetic event to a systemic administrative failure. The reclassification of "critical infrastructure" by the central government has prioritized defense-industrial requirements over civilian medical and transport services, creating a localized humanitarian risk.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- UAV Vectoring: The approach to Kryvyi Rih from the east suggests the RF is utilizing launch sites in the Donbas or Rostov region to bypass southern-facing AD screens.
- Ideological Hardening: Patriarch Kirill’s Christmas messaging (TASS, 0649Z) reinforces the RF's "civilizational war" narrative, aimed at sustaining domestic morale as frontline attrition (evidenced in Huliaipole) continues to rise.
- Logistics Adaptation: The continued use of "disposable" infantry suggests the RF is maintaining pressure through volume rather than tactical proficiency, likely to preserve better-equipped units for a potential spring offensive.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Active Defense: UAF units in the South are effectively utilizing FPV and small-arms fire to decimate RF assault groups before they can establish footholds.
- Infrastructure Management: Local authorities in Lviv (Mayor Sadovyi) are pushing back against central government directives, indicating potential friction between regional and national levels regarding energy allocation.
- Diplomatic Engagement: Success in securing commitments from Belgium indicates the "Coalition of the Willing" is expanding into maritime and air domain guarantees, essential for long-term Black Sea security.
Information environment / disinformation
- "Myrotvorets" Exploitation: The report about Russian/Uzbek children in the database is a classic RF "active measures" technique designed to trigger Western human rights concerns and disrupt international support.
- Fabricated Trump Policy: The ABC/Venezuela report (0656Z) is likely a shaping operation aimed at creating an image of US-led global realignment to distract from RF diplomatic isolation.
- Religious IO: RF channels continue to package political statements (Medvedev) as religious "Christmas greetings" to maintain the facade of a "Truce" that their kinetic actions (Kryvyi Rih UAVs) actively contradict.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): Air defense engagements in Kryvyi Rih and continued tactical pressure in the Donbas. Lviv will face increased public transit paralysis and hospital resource strain.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-vector strike (UAV + Ballistic) targeting Kryvyi Rih's metallurgical or power nodes to capitalize on the current drone-led distraction.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- Lviv Policy Impact: Clarify if the "criticality criteria" change is a nationwide directive or specific to the Lviv region (affects AD prioritization).
- Kryvyi Rih AD Coverage: Assess the effectiveness of current mobile AD groups against the eastern UAV approach.
- Huliaipole Unit ID: Identify the specific RF units suffering mass casualties to determine if this reflects broader degradation of the RF 35th or 36th Combined Arms Armies.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently focused on an administrative energy crisis in Western Ukraine and an evolving UAV threat in the Center. Tactical engagements in the South (Zaporizhzhia) continue to favor UAF defensive postures against low-quality RF infantry assaults.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
The RF is sustaining high personnel losses near Huliaipole, confirming that their "new" formations remain under-equipped and poorly led. However, they maintain the initiative in the air domain, shifting UAV vectors to exploit gaps in UAF's regional AD umbrellas (e.g., the eastern approach to Kryvyi Rih).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF demonstrates high tactical proficiency in Zaporizhzhia but faces a mounting strategic challenge in Lviv. The internal political friction regarding energy prioritization could affect civilian morale and defense-industrial throughput if not resolved.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
The RF is intensifying its "moral/religious" narrative via TASS and Medvedev while simultaneously seeding disinformation about "Myrotvorets" and fabricated US foreign policy to muddy the international diplomatic waters.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Air defense assets in Central Ukraine must be repositioned to account for the eastern UAV corridor. The RF will likely continue to use the Orthodox Christmas window to frame UAF defensive responses as "aggressive," while maintaining their own kinetic tempo.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
- Tactical AD Pivot: Deploy additional mobile fire groups (MFGs) to the eastern approaches of Kryvyi Rih immediately.
- Political-Military Deconfliction: Recommend an immediate review of the "criticality criteria" directive for Lviv to ensure hospital operations are not compromised, which would provide a significant IO victory for the RF.
- Counter-IO Campaign: Publicly debunk the "Myrotvorets" child-targeting narrative before it gains traction in Western or neutral (Uzbekistan) media outlets.
//END OF REPORT//
