Situation Report

Situation Update (0630Z 07 JAN 26)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Large-Scale Aerial Assault: RF launched 95 UAVs and 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile overnight. UAF Air Defense successfully neutralized the Iskander-M and 81/95 UAVs (0600Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
• Lviv Infrastructure Emergency: Critical energy re-prioritization has resulted in the disconnection of several hospitals and the entire municipal electric transport network in Lviv (0610Z, Mayor Sadovyi, HIGH).
• RF Force Generation Deficiencies: Intelligence indicates that "new" RF Motor Rifle Divisions (MSDs) are being equipped with civilian vehicles, motorcycles, and MT-LBs rather than standard IFVs, indicating persistent armor shortages (0606Z, Zvizdeц Mangustu, MEDIUM).
• Artillery Expansion: RF is reportedly forming an additional artillery division within the Leningrad Military District (LenVO) to bolster the northern flank (0601Z, Zvizdeц Mangustu, MEDIUM).
• Diplomatic Pivot: Reports suggest French President Macron may restore contact with Putin in the coming weeks (0612Z, France 2 via Tsaplienko, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
• UAF Deep Strike Pressure: RF MoD claims to have intercepted 32 Ukrainian UAVs overnight, indicating continued UAF pressure on RF rear logistics/AD (0625Z, Operation Z, MEDIUM).

Operational picture (by sector)

Northern Axis (Leningrad/Sumy):

The formation of a new artillery division in the Leningrad Military District (LenVO) suggests a long-term Russian intent to increase fire-power density along the border with NATO and the northern Ukrainian theater. This matches the previous report's assessment of RF "North" group hardening their posture near Sumy following the Znobovka bridge destruction.

Eastern Axis (Donbas/Kharkiv):

In Kharkiv, three settlements were targeted by RF strikes in the last 24 hours (0625Z, Synehubov). Tactical reports from the Air Assault Forces (DShV) highlight the high attrition and poor equipment of RF assault units, noting deceased personnel found without body armor or helmets (0602Z, DShV).

Central/Rear (Lviv/Uman):

The situation in Lviv is critical. The decision to cut power to hospitals and public transit suggests the energy grid is under extreme stress, possibly following the cumulative effect of recent strikes or a preventative re-allocation of power to the defense-industrial base.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Mobility Adaptation: The RF is increasingly utilizing "non-standard" mobility (motorcycles, Chinese buggies, "Bukhanka" vans) for frontline logistics and troop transport. While this reduces the thermal and acoustic signature compared to heavy armor, it leaves infantry highly vulnerable to FPV and shrapnel (0606Z, Zvizdeц Mangustu).
• Saturation Tactics: The use of 95 UAVs (including Shaheds and "Gerbera" decoys) indicates a continued strategy to exhaust UAF Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) stockpiles ahead of a potential larger missile wave.
• Internal PR: Putin’s post-Christmas service meeting with "SVO" families is assessed as a staged effort to maintain domestic support amidst coercive recruitment drives (Rosgvardia raids) reported in the previous window.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Air Defense Efficiency: UAF achieved an 85% intercept rate against a complex, multi-vector UAV attack and successfully downed a high-speed Iskander-M ballistic missile launched from Taganrog.
• Asymmetric Deep Strikes: Continued UAV pressure (32 units reported by RF) indicates UAF is successfully maintaining a high tempo of "Deep-Rear" interdiction, likely targeting AD radars or fuel nodes to complicate RF aviation surges.

Information environment / disinformation

• "Christmas Truce" Contradiction: Despite RF religious messaging (0608Z, Basurin), the overnight launch of 95 UAVs and 1 Iskander-M confirms that RF "truce" narratives are purely for domestic and international PR consumption and do not reflect operational reality.
• Strategic Distraction: TASS/Russian outlets are amplifying reports about US interests in Greenland (0559Z). This is assessed as a low-level "noise" operation designed to clutter the information space and distract from frontline attrition.
• Diplomatic Friction: The report of Macron’s potential contact with Putin may be leveraged by RF IO to suggest a "thaw" in European resolve, aimed at undermining the Paris diplomatic track.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) strikes in the Donetsk and Kharkiv sectors, utilizing the aviation surge identified at AB Voronezh Malshevo (SAR Score 21.65).
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A secondary ballistic or cruise missile strike targeting Lviv’s already strained energy infrastructure to force a total blackout and humanitarian crisis.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Lviv Grid Integrity: Determine if the power cuts are due to direct kinetic damage not yet reported or a systematic failure of the regional distribution network.
2. LenVO Artillery Composition: Identify the specific equipment being allocated to the new artillery division (towed vs. self-propelled) to assess its offensive vs. defensive posture.
3. Iskander-M Launch Site: Monitor the Taganrog area for signs of additional Iskander-M reload activity.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

The battlefield is currently characterized by an intense air-domain struggle. The RF is attempting to saturate Ukrainian defenses with low-cost UAVs and decoys ("Gerbera") to create openings for ballistic strikes. Domestically, Ukraine faces a critical infrastructure challenge in the West (Lviv), while the RF faces quality-of-force issues in its new formations.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

The RF is struggling to provide standard armored protection to its new Motor Rifle Divisions. The reliance on civilian-grade transport (buggies/bikes) suggests a transition toward "disposable" light infantry tactics. However, the expansion of the artillery branch in LenVO indicates that the RF continues to prioritize "firepower over maneuver."

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

UAF Air Defense remains highly effective in the mid-to-high altitude and ballistic regimes. However, the energy situation in Lviv indicates that the secondary effects of the air war (grid degradation) are reaching a tipping point, requiring urgent resource management.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

RF is maximizing the Orthodox Christmas holiday for internal stability messaging while maintaining a high kinetic tempo. Western "negotiation" rumors (Macron) are being amplified to create internal friction within the pro-Ukrainian coalition.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

The next 12 hours will likely see a focus on tactical aviation strikes. If UAF deep-rear strikes successfully hit fuel or munitions at Voronezh, the expected KAB wave may be delayed. If not, the Donetsk/Sumy seams will face heavy bombardment.

//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//

1. Infrastructure Defense: Prioritize mobile AD groups (MANPADS/Anti-drone guns) around Lviv's remaining functional substations to prevent a total grid collapse.
2. Tactical Target Exploitation: UAF FPV units should prioritize the "unprotected" RF mobility assets (motorcycles/buggies) identified in new MSDs to maximize enemy casualty rates during troop rotations.
3. Strategic Comms: Counter the "Macron-Putin" narrative by highlighting the Jan 7 overnight strike as proof of RF's total disregard for holiday/religious truces.

//END OF REPORT//