Deep-Rear Drone Strike (Uman): Enemy UAVs targeted the Uman region (Cherkasy), causing fires and damage to multiple industrial enterprises. Fires are reported liquidated (0550Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
Sweden Gripen Commitment: Reports indicate Sweden is prepared to transfer JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, significantly bolstering UAF long-term aviation capabilities (0548Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM).
Vremivka Sector Airstrikes: 11th Guards Army (Vostok Group) launched concentrated strikes against UAF positions near Zaliznychne (0530Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM).
Internal RF Security/Recruitment: Rosgvardia conducted raids on civilian gatherings (punk concert) in Moscow, forcibly checking phones for "undesirable" content and issuing military contracts (0539Z, Sever.Realii, MEDIUM).
Information Operation (Security Guarantees): Pro-Russian sources are leveraging a Politico report to claim the US has refused to sign security guarantee declarations, aimed at undermining the Paris diplomatic track (0555Z, Operation Z, HIGH as to narrative presence).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Vremivka):
The Vremivka Salient has seen an uptick in tactical aviation activity. The 11th Guards Army (VVS/PVO) is actively targeting Zaliznychne, likely attempting to disrupt UAF local reserves. This corroborates the earlier SAR-detected surge at Voronezh Malshevo, as assets are now being committed to kinetic sorties.
Central/Rear Area:
The strike on Uman indicates that despite the low UAV count (9) reported overnight by the RF MoD, precision or localized drone penetrations are continuing. The targeting of "enterprises" suggests a shift back to industrial/logistics degradation. Kryvyi Rih reports a "controlled" status as of 0540Z, indicating no significant overnight impacts in that specific district.
Northern/Eastern Axis:
No significant new kinetic updates in this window; however, the destruction of the Znobovka bridge (from previous reports) continues to isolate border units.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action (Aviation): The RF is utilizing the 11th Guards Army to increase pressure on the Vremivka/Zaporizhzhia seam. The use of VVS/PVO bombers indicates a high-confidence targeting cycle (0530Z, Voin DV).
Internal Sustainment (Manpower): The Rosgvardia raids in Moscow suggest a persistent and perhaps desperate requirement for manpower, moving from voluntary recruitment to coercive "contracting" at civilian events.
Strategic Threat: The Uman strike confirms that the "holiday lull" does not extend to the RF's long-range drone program. A larger Tu-95/160 strike remains a HIGH threat for the 0600Z-1200Z window.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Aviation Modernization: The potential addition of Swedish JAS 39 Gripens provides a critical counter to the RF Su-34/Su-35 advantage, specifically in the multi-role and anti-ship/standoff categories.
Civil Defense: Rapid liquidation of fires in Uman suggests efficient emergency response and damage mitigation in the face of persistent UAV threats.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Security Guarantee Withdrawal" (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE/IO): Russian channels are amplifying claims that the US is backing out of security frameworks. This is a classic Reflexive Control tactic designed to demoralize the Ukrainian public and create friction between Kyiv and Washington during active negotiations in Paris.
Geopolitical Pivot (Africa): Rybar’s shift to high-production infographics regarding African gold and Western "neo-colonialism" is assessed as an attempt to pivot the Russian domestic audience's focus away from frontline attrition and toward a "Global South vs. West" struggle.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued tactical aviation strikes in the Vremivka and Zaporizhzhia sectors. Expect an increase in "Holiday" propaganda from RF sources to mask ongoing combat operations.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated missile/UAV strike on the energy sector or political centers in Kyiv, timed to the conclusion of Orthodox Christmas morning services to maximize psychological impact.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Gripen Logistics: Clarify the timeline and conditions for the Swedish Gripen transfer (training requirements, basing security).
Uman Damage Assessment: Identify the specific "enterprises" hit in Uman to determine if they are linked to the UAF defense-industrial base or grain logistics.
Internal RF Stability: Monitor if the Rosgvardia raids in Moscow trigger localized civil unrest or if this indicates a wider "stealth mobilization" push.
//ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS//
Strategic Communications: Discredit the "US Security Guarantee" narrative by emphasizing the Sweden/Gripen pledge and ongoing Paris negotiations as signs of increasing, not decreasing, Western commitment.
Air Defense Re-Allocation: Strengthen point-defense around industrial clusters in Central Ukraine (Uman/Vinnytsia) following the successful penetration of the Uman airspace.
Tactical Warning: Alert units in the Vremivka sector for sustained VVS (11th Guards Army) activity throughout the daylight hours of Jan 7.
