Uman UAV Threat Degradation: Of the four Shahed-type UAVs previously tracking toward Uman, only one remains active; three have been neutralized or failed (2330Z, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia Threat Re-emergence: A new UAV ingress has been detected approaching Zaporizhzhia from the south, occurring minutes after a previous air raid alert was canceled (2341Z, 2346Z, AFU Air Force/Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
Morale Success: UAF/Government agencies successfully extracted a youth from occupied territory, providing a domestic morale counter-narrative (2352Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
Targeted Russian IO: TASS has launched a dual-track information operation focusing on U.S. political instability (Trump/Venezuela) and accusing Ukraine of targeting children via the "Mirotvorets" database (2332Z, 2345Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Central Sector (Uman/Cherkasy): Kinetic activity is subsiding as the initial 4-unit swarm has been reduced to a single drone. AD performance in this sector is assessed as high.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): The situation remains volatile. The cancellation of the air raid alert at 2341Z was premature or was triggered by the detection of a second wave entering the sector from the south at 2346Z. This indicates "pulsing" UAV tactics intended to fatigue AD operators.
Sumy/Donbas Border: No new ground tactical updates; the situation regarding the Znobovka bridge destruction and the Voronezh aviation surge remains the primary baseline concern (Ref: Daily Report 01-06).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
UAV Saturation Tactics: The RF continues to use small-group "moped" (Shahed) strikes to maintain continuous air raid status across multiple oblasts. The reduction of the Uman group suggests either effective UAF point defense or the use of these units as decoys to map AD radar signatures.
Aviation Staging (Voronezh Malshevo): The SAR score of 21.65 remains the critical indicator. Current UAV activity is likely the "shaping" phase for a pre-dawn KAB/missile strike (approx. 0300Z–0600Z) to coincide with Orthodox Christmas morning.
Information Operations: Russian state media is heavily emphasizing "Western chaos" (Trump impeachment narratives) and "Ukrainian extremism" (Mirotvorets children list) to distract from battlefield losses and justify ongoing "special" measures.
Friendly forces (Blue force tracking)
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is demonstrating high intercept rates in the Central Sector. However, the rapid re-entry of drones in Zaporizhzhia suggests a need for increased persistence in Mobile Fire Group (MFG) patrols.
Humanitarian/Intel Ops: The return of the youth from occupation indicates ongoing, successful low-visibility extraction operations behind enemy lines.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Disinformation: The TASS report regarding 16 children on the "Mirotvorets" site (2345Z) is a classic "reflexive control" tactic aimed at international human rights observers to paint Ukraine as a rogue state.
Divergence: Russian media is increasingly focusing on U.S. internal politics (Delaney/Trump/Venezuela) to signal to domestic audiences that Western support for Ukraine is precarious due to internal American strife.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued "leaking" of single UAVs into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro sectors to keep AD systems active and prevent crew rest.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-regiment aviation strike from AB Voronezh Malshevo targeting the Sumy-Kharkiv-Donetsk seam at 0600Z, utilizing the "exhaustion" caused by the overnight UAV waves.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia Ground Confirmation: (PRIORITY) Still require confirmation of the reported RF advance near Huliaipole (Zelene/Svyatopetrivka) from 2320Z. Absence of new data suggests either a failed probe or a successful "media-only" feint by RF sources.
Voronezh ELINT: Monitor for increased radio traffic between AB Voronezh Malshevo and AWACS (A-50U) platforms, which would indicate immediate launch of the Su-34/Su-25 groups.
Bessarabia Status: No data received on the UAVs previously tracking toward Sarata/Zatoka; status of Odesa coastal AD remains a gap.
Recommendations
AD Discipline: Zaporizhzhia sector units should avoid "alert fatigue" despite repeated cancellations and reactivations; maintain MFG readiness for low-altitude ingress.
Strategic Communication: Ukrainian IO should amplify the successful extraction of the youth to counter the TASS "Mirotvorets" narrative, particularly for international audiences.
Counter-Surge: Units in the North/East should prepare for heavy KAB strikes at dawn; ensure "step-back" positions are ready and electronic warfare (EW) assets are tuned for drone/KAB guidance frequencies.
