Civilians Casualties in Dnipro: Seven civilians, including two children, reported injured following a UAV strike on the city (2258Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).
New UAV Vector (Uman): A group of at least four Shahed-type UAVs is approaching Uman from the south (Cherkasy region). Air Defense (AD) is active (2313Z, 2317Z, Air Force UA/Nikolaevskiy Vanek, HIGH).
Tactical Ground Activity (Zaporizhzhia): Enemy sources claim localized advances west and northwest of Huliaipole, specifically targeting Pryiutne, Zelene, and Svyatopetrivka. This suggests an attempt to bypass Ukrainian defenses along the Hychur River (2320Z, Voenkor Kotenok, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
LNR Integration Propaganda: Russian state-aligned media has launched a new testimonial campaign emphasizing the "benefits" of Russian integration in the occupied Luhansk region (2301Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Central Sector (Dnipro/Uman): The enemy has successfully struck civilian infrastructure in Dnipro. The focus has now shifted to Uman, which is currently under threat from a 4-unit UAV swarm. This indicates a northwest expansion of the drone flight paths originally detected over Odesa and Kryvyi Rih.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): Reported Russian activity near Huliaipole (Eastern flank) indicates a potential probing operation or local offensive to seize tactical heights/crossings. If confirmed, the movement toward Zelene and Svyatopetrivka represents a threat to the flank of Ukrainian units holding the Huliaipole sector.
Odesa/Bessarabia: (Per previous sitrep) UAVs remain in transit toward Sarata and Zatoka; no impact reports received yet.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Staging: The critical surge at AB Voronezh Malshevo (SAR Score 21.65) reported earlier remains the primary operational threat. Current multi-vector UAV strikes are likely serving as an AD-exhaustion phase prior to a major KAB or missile wave.
UAV Saturation: The RF is maintaining a complex, multi-axis drone offensive (Dnipro, Uman, Odesa, Kryvyi Rih) to force UAF to distribute Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) and reveal AD positions.
Tactical Shift (Zaporizhzhia): The reported advance north of Huliaipole suggests the enemy is seeking "grey zone" opportunities to bypass entrenched positions rather than engaging in costly frontal assaults.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Casualty Management: Emergency services are responding to the strike in Dnipro.
AD Engagement: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and engaging targets over Cherkasy and Odesa oblasts.
Defensive Posture: UAF units in the Zaporizhzhia sector are likely in high-readiness status following reports of RF movement near the Hychur River.
Information environment / disinformation
"Reconstruction" Narrative: The Colonelcassad testimonial video is a clear attempt to normalize the occupation of Luhansk and counter reports of deteriorating conditions in the "LNR."
Holiday Diversion: Russian state media (TASS) is disseminating domestic administrative news (car seat fines) to maintain a veneer of normalcy and domestic control during the Orthodox Christmas period and ongoing strikes.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV interceptions over Uman and Odesa coast. Probable kinetic impacts or debris damage in Cherkasy region within 0-2 hours.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated strike by the Su-34/Su-25 assets staged at AB Voronezh Malshevo against the Sumy or Donetsk frontline, timed to coincide with Christmas morning (approx. 0600Z), utilizing the current UAV wave as a successful suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) operation.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia Ground Truth: Urgently require GEOINT or drone footage to confirm RF presence in Pryiutne, Zelene, or Svyatopetrivka.
Voronezh Status: Determine if aircraft at AB Voronezh Malshevo have begun taxiing or engine starts (indicative of imminent launch).
Uman BDA: Monitor for impacts in Uman to identify specific infrastructure targets (logistics hubs vs. energy).
Recommendations
Civilian Warning: Authorities in Uman and Cherkasy should maintain high-level air raid alerts; residents should remain in shelters due to the direct approach of a 4-drone group.
Zaporizhzhia Reconnaissance: Deploy additional ISR assets to the Huliaipole-Zelene axis to confirm enemy movement and prevent a localized breakthrough.
Medical Readiness: Level 1 and 2 medical facilities in the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia sectors should prepare for potential mass casualty events if the Voronezh aviation surge materializes at dawn.
