Multi-Vector UAV Incursions: New waves of Shahed/UAVs detected entering airspace from Northern Sumy (Yampil direction), the Black Sea (Odesa coast), and Southern Zaporizhzhia (2100Z, 2114Z, 2115Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
Strategic Diplomatic Milestone: President Zelensky confirmed a "Coalition of the Willing" summit in Paris involving 27 leaders, NATO, and the EU to formalize long-term security guarantees (2124Z, Zelenskiy Official, HIGH).
RF Leadership IO: Putin attended an Orthodox Christmas service in the Moscow region with military personnel, serving as a primary domestic propaganda effort to link the state, church, and war effort (2106Z, 2118Z, TASS/Moscow News, HIGH).
German Mobilization Rhetoric: Russian sources are amplifying claims that German Chancellor Scholz is pressuring Ukrainian men in the EU to return for military service (2102Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM; likely a disinformation spin on diplomatic discussions).
US Defense Industrial Policy: Reports indicate Donald Trump has pledged to accelerate arms production for US allies (2102Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM).
Unconfirmed Geopolitical Noise: Russian state media reports regarding potential US military intervention in Greenland (2119Z, TASS, LOW/UNCONFIRMED; assessed as "chaff" or diversionary information).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy): UAVs detected crossing from the north towards Yampil at 2100Z. This suggests the RF is maintaining pressure on the Sumy border despite recent bridge destructions, likely using UAVs for reconnaissance or harassment of the H-07 corridor.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro): Air alerts were briefly cleared (2106Z) but immediately reinstated (2115Z) as new UAVs approached from the south. The tactical focus remains on saturating the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipro corridor.
Maritime/Coastal (Odesa): A new UAV vector has been identified originating from the Black Sea towards the Odesa coastline (2114Z). This indicates a coordinated multi-axis strike intended to stretch UAF Air Defense (AD) assets.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Strike: Despite the "peaceful" religious messaging from the Kremlin (2100Z-2125Z), the RF has not halted kinetic operations. The timing of UAV launches from three distinct directions (North, South, Sea) suggests a "shaping" phase for a larger missile or KAB strike at dawn on Jan 7.
Information Operations (IO): Russian mil-bloggers (Alex Parker, Kotenok, Strelkov) are synchronized in pushing "Holy War" narratives, framing the Jan 7 holiday as a period for "peaceful reflection" before resuming combat (2100Z-2111Z). This is a transparent effort to paint the UAF as the aggressor if they conduct counter-battery or deep strikes during the holiday.
Internal Security (RF): Reports of forced mobilization in Moscow and violence related to "pro-war" social pressure (2121Z) suggest localized friction within the RF rear, though not yet at a scale to impact frontline operations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic/Diplomatic: The Paris "Coalition of the Willing" summit represents a significant counter to "Western fatigue" narratives. The inclusion of 27 nations and formal NATO/EU representation provides a structural framework for sustained military aid.
Air Defense: UAF AD is currently tracking and engaging three separate UAV swarms. Resource management is critical as the RF attempts to bait AD batteries into revealing positions before potential morning missile launches.
Logistics/Fundraising: Leading volunteers report a "critical deficit" in current fundraising cycles (2102Z), indicating a potential lull in civilian-led procurement of tactical drones and EW equipment.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Return of Men": RF channels are weaponizing German political statements to create anxiety among the Ukrainian diaspora. This is intended to disrupt social cohesion and create friction between Kyiv and its European partners.
Greenland Narrative: The TASS report on Greenland is likely intended to project an image of "US Imperialism" to Global South audiences, diverting attention from Russian territorial annexations in Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV saturation through 0300Z, followed by a coordinated missile strike (Kalibr/Kh-101) targeting the energy grid and transport hubs in Odesa, Dnipro, and Kyiv between 0400Z and 0700Z on Jan 7.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF utilizes the "holiday window" to attempt a localized mechanized breakthrough in the Sumy sector (near Yampil) while UAF AD is preoccupied with the Odesa/Zaporizhzhia drone swarms.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Odesa UAV Origin: Confirm if the Black Sea UAVs are ship-launched or launched from occupied Crimea (Cape Tarkhankut) to assess maritime threat levels.
Paris Summit Specifics: Identify the specific "long-term security guarantees" mentioned by Zelensky to determine the timeline for new hardware arrivals.
AB Voronezh Malshevo Update: Monitor for engine starts or taxiing activity (SIGINT/ELINT) that would confirm the staging of Su-34s for morning KAB strikes.
