Kinetic Impacts in Dnipro: Massed Shahed UAV wave has caused confirmed hits on residential high-rises, a kindergarten, and a vocational school in Dnipro; fires are active (2048Z, 2052Z, Dnipropetrovsk ODA/Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia KAB Escalation: RF tactical aviation has launched a new wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting the Zaporizhzhia region (2030Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
Confirmed Logistical Attrition: Russian state media confirms oil reservoir fires in Belgorod Oblast following UAF drone strikes, indicating sustained damage to "Zapad" Group fuel supplies (2056Z, TASS, HIGH).
Tactical Strike in Zaliznychne: Russian 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th Army) utilized drone-drop munitions to strike a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Zaliznychne (2046Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Hybrid Threat Discovery: Ukrainian security services uncovered an unauthorized school operating under a Kyiv monastery (UOC-MP) teaching Soviet-era curricula, indicating persistent internal subversion (2033Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM).
Sourcing Intel: Reports indicate Venezuela has emerged as a primary hub for Russian UAV component assembly and transit (2033Z, Operativno ZSU/MP Zablotskyi, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is currently defined by a multi-layered Russian air assault focusing on the Dnipro-Zaporizhzhia corridor, likely intended to degrade regional logistics and civilian morale ahead of the Jan 7 holiday.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline in the South remains highly active, particularly around Zaliznychne and the Huliaipole sector, where RF is utilizing drone-corrected strikes to disrupt UAF rotations.
Weather/Environment: Nighttime operations are dominated by UAV activity. Atmospheric conditions favor low-altitude Shahed penetration from southern vectors.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Air Domain: RF is executing a coordinated "high-low" strike pattern. KAB launches (2030Z) are being used to pin tactical reserves in Zaporizhzhia, while Shahed swarms (2039Z) penetrate deeper to strike Dnipro. The focus on civilian infrastructure (kindergartens/residential) suggests a shift toward terror-bombing to force a redirection of AD assets from the front.
Tactical Adaptations: The 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade's success in Zaliznychne demonstrates increasing RF proficiency in nighttime drone-drop operations against PVDs.
Strategic Logistics: While the Belgorod fire (2056Z) confirms UAF's ability to disrupt fuel lines, the reported Venezuela-Russia UAV pipeline (2033Z) suggests the RF is successfully diversifying its global supply chain for attritional components.
Maritime: RF tanker Mariner is under Western surveillance (2048Z), suggesting an ongoing Russian effort to bypass energy sanctions via "dark fleet" maneuvers in the Atlantic.
3. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Air Defense (AD): UAF AD remains heavily engaged in Dnipro. However, the confirmed hits on residential and educational sites indicate saturation or a breach in the local AD umbrella.
Internal Security: The raid on the UOC-MP monastery school in Kyiv highlights a continuing requirement for rear-area security to counter pro-Russian ideological subversion.
Deep Strike: UAF maintains the initiative in the Belgorod sector, successfully re-striking or maintaining the fire at critical energy nodes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Diplomatic Divergence: French President Macron's suggestion of potential contact with Putin (2036Z) contrasts with German opposition leader Merz’s pressure on Ukrainian mobilization (2044Z). These narratives are being used by RF propagandists (2042Z) to project a sense of "Western fatigue" and fractured support.
Subversion: The discovery of "Soviet curriculum" schools in Kyiv serves as a potent domestic signal of the ongoing hybrid war within the religious and educational sectors.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the Shahed-KAB cycle through 0400Z on Jan 7, targeting energy and heating infrastructure in Dnipro to maximize the impact of cold weather during the holiday.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF may utilize the "Venezuela pipeline" intel to mask a surge in a new UAV type, potentially deploying it for the first time during the Jan 7 morning wave to bypass current EW signatures.
Tactical Estimate: Continued pressure in the Zaliznychne-Huliaipole sector suggests a pending mechanized push once UAF forward positions are sufficiently softened by drone/KAB strikes.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Zaliznychne BDA: Determine the extent of personnel losses at the struck PVD to assess local defensive viability.
Venezuela Hub Verification: Cross-reference signals intelligence (SIGINT) to confirm the specific components being transshipped via Venezuela.
Belgorod Reserve Status: Assess if the Belgorod oil fire has impacted the "Zapad" Group's ability to conduct mechanized maneuvers in the Sumy/Kharkiv direction.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Tactical: Disperse all Temporary Deployment Points (PVDs) in the Southern Sector; RF drone operators are actively hunting centralized housing (Ref: Zaliznychne strike).
Operational: Re-evaluate EW coverage for Dnipro’s southern approaches to counter the "south-vector" drone swarms.
Counter-Hybrid: Increase surveillance on UOC-MP properties nationwide to prevent "illegal school" networks from serving as nodes for pro-Russian mobilization or reconnaissance.
