Multi-Vector Air Assault on Dnipro: Combined ballistic and Shahed UAV strikes confirmed. Ballistic impacts reported in Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih at approximately 1800Z; Shahed wave currently transiting Dnipropetrovsk toward Kirovohrad Oblast (2000Z, 2006Z, 2020Z, Air Force/Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
Persistent Logistical Disruption: The Belgorod Oblast oil depot remains on fire following UAF drone strikes, significantly degrading "Zapad" Group fuel reserves (1958Z, 2012Z, Tsaplienko/Two Majors, HIGH).
Southern Sector Intensity: Reports confirm 111 Russian assault actions in the Huliaipole sector over the Jan 4-5 period, indicating a major localized offensive effort (2007Z, DeepState, HIGH).
Tactical Success at Staroukrainka: UAF forces successfully repelled a Russian assault in Staroukrainka, resulting in significant enemy personnel losses described as "collective suicide" (2018Z, DeepState, MEDIUM).
Diplomatic Friction/Mobilization Narratives: German opposition leader Friedrich Merz called for Ukraine to ensure military-aged men serve domestically rather than emigrating, signaling potential shifts in European support conditions (2005Z, 2015Z, RBK-Ukraine/Sternenko, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a high-tempo Russian integrated air campaign and intensified ground assaults in the Southern (Zaporizhzhia) axis.
Battlefield Geometry: Russian forces are attempting to saturate Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) in the Dnipro-Zaporizhzhia corridor through a synchronized application of ballistic missiles followed by low-slow UAV swarms.
Weather/Environment: Cold conditions persist. The Orthodox Christmas holiday (Jan 7) is being leveraged by the RF for psychological operations, including high-profile leadership visits to the "SVO" zone.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Aviation and Long-Range Strikes: RF has transitioned from localized KAB strikes to a regional integrated strike. The use of ballistics against Dnipro and Kryvyi Rih prior to the arrival of Shaheds indicates an "AD suppression" logic intended to create corridors for the UAVs.
Ground Course of Action (COA): The high volume of assaults (111 in 48 hours) in the Huliaipole sector suggests the RF is attempting to find a seam in the southern defense to bypass the fortified lines in Donetsk.
Logistics: The ongoing fire at the Belgorod depot (2001Z) likely forces the RF Western Group to reroute fuel supplies from deeper hubs (e.g., Voronezh), creating a 24-48 hour window of slowed mechanized activity in the northern border sectors.
Tula UAV Incident: Pro-Russian sources report damage to a cathedral in Tula via UAV (2004Z). Analytic Note: This is likely an RF attempt to frame UAF deep strikes as "attacks on Orthodox culture" ahead of the Jan 7 holiday.
3. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Air Defense Operations: UAF AD is currently engaged in the Dnipro and Kirovohrad regions. Interception efforts are complicated by multiple vectors, including drones entering from northern Zaporizhzhia (2025Z).
Defensive Resilience: High-confidence reports from Staroukrainka indicate UAF tactical units maintain high lethality against RF ground assaults.
Deep Interdiction: UAF continues to prioritize Russian energy infrastructure, maintaining pressure on the Belgorod-Stary Oskol logistical spine.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
European Mobilization Pressure: Comments by Friedrich Merz (2013Z) regarding Ukrainian men in Europe are being heavily amplified by both Ukrainian and Russian channels. This is likely intended to create domestic friction regarding mobilization fairness.
US Diplomatic Speculation: Unconfirmed reports (MEDIUM/LOW confidence) regarding Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff discussing "deals" with Putin and post-war reconstruction with BlackRock are circulating (2017Z, 2000Z). This is a Russian "shaping operation" designed to project a sense of inevitability regarding territorial concessions.
Religious Signaling: Russian state media (TASS) is emphasizing Orthodox Christmas services and Putin's meeting with soldiers (2021Z) to bolster domestic morale and portray Russia as the defender of traditional values.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The current Shahed swarm will attempt to strike infrastructure targets in Petrove (Kirovohrad Oblast) and Dnipro city within the next 3-6 hours. RF will likely follow this with a dawn wave of KABs in the Huliaipole and Donetsk sectors to capitalize on AD fatigue.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF may conduct a symbolic "Christmas strike" using precision missiles against Kyiv or Lviv during the early hours of Jan 7, coinciding with holiday services to maximize psychological impact.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Staroukrainka Tactical Status: Confirm if the failed RF assault has led to a UAF counter-push or if the "Grey Zone" has expanded.
Kirovohrad AD Readiness: Monitor the effectiveness of AD assets in the Petrove area against the incoming west-bound Shahed vector (2020Z).
Belgorod BDA: Obtain satellite or drone imagery of the Belgorod depot to determine if the fire has spread to adjacent rail-loading infrastructure.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Tactical: Unit commanders in the Kirovohrad sector should immediately activate mobile fire groups to intercept low-altitude UAVs bypassings Dnipro.
Strategic IO: Pre-emptively frame any damage to religious sites (like the Tula cathedral claim) as the result of failing Russian AD or deliberate false-flag operations to negate Russian "holiday martyrdom" narratives.
Personnel: Increase OPSEC around military gatherings during the Jan 7 holiday period, as RF may use "holiday visits" as a pretext for high-value individual targeting (HVIT).
