Deep Interdiction Surge: UAF successful UAV strikes on a Belgorod Oblast oil depot and reports of a major fire in Stary Oskol (1930Z, 1955Z, Tsaplienko/ASTRA, HIGH).
Southern UAV Incursion: A "large group" of Shahed UAVs has bypassed Kryvyi Rih and is currently entering the airspace of Dnipro from the south (1942Z, 1948Z, Air Force, HIGH).
Security Architecture Formalization: President Zelenskyy and PM Starmer clarified that "multinational forces" and "military hubs" will be established via legally binding "Coalition of the Willing" agreements, integrated with US security frameworks (1929Z, 1943Z, 1950Z, RBK-Ukraine/Starshiy Eddy, HIGH).
Aviation Pressure: RF launched new KAB sorties against the Donetsk sector and conducted a strike in Polohy (Zaporizhzhia), resulting in four casualties (1945Z, 1952Z, ASTRA/Air Force, HIGH).
US Diplomatic Pivot: Reports indicate the Trump administration’s envoy sees a "right deal" involving territorial compromises as the primary path to ending hostilities (1931Z, 1949Z, RBK-Ukraine/Operation Z, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The tactical situation is shifting toward a high-intensity UAV/Aviation exchange. While UAF successfully targets Russian energy logistics in the Belgorod border region, Russian forces are escalating pressure on the Dnipro-Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk triangle using multi-vector UAV swarms and KABs.
Battlefield Geometry: The "Center" and Lyman (Krasnolimansk) sectors remain the primary focus of Russian ground logistics and fundraising efforts (1950Z), suggesting an imminent push in the Lyman forest area to exploit previous "forest flanking" tactics.
Weather: No significant change; cold weather continues to favor static defense and long-range strikes over heavy mechanized maneuver.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Logistics & Sustainment: The strike on the Belgorod oil depot (1930Z) and the Stary Oskol fire (1955Z) represent a significant blow to the "Zapad" (Western) Group of Forces' fuel supply chain.
Tactical Aviation: RF continues to utilize Polohy (Zaporizhzhia) as a kinetic focal point (1945Z), likely attempting to suppress UAF secondary lines of defense.
UAV Operations: The shift of the Shahed vector from Kryvyi Rih to Dnipro (1942Z) indicates an attempt to saturate air defenses in a critical industrial and logistical hub.
Personnel: Capture of a Russian Junior Lieutenant (Shener Aleksandr) (1946Z) provides potential tactical intelligence on current unit morale and local objectives in the operational area.
3. FRIENDLY ACTIVITY (UAF)
Deep Strike Operations: UAF continues to demonstrate high-reach capability into the RF rear (Belgorod/Stary Oskol), specifically targeting energy infrastructure to disrupt winter offensive logistics.
Air Defense: Mobile units are currently engaged in tracking and intercepting the Shahed wave targeting Dnipro.
Strategic Posture: Leadership is focused on codifying the "Coalition of the Willing" into legally binding guarantees (1943Z) to prevent future aggression, moving beyond the "memorandum" style of previous decades.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russian Counter-Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Starshiy Eddy) are framing Western military hubs as a "war to the last Ukrainian" (1929Z), signaling that the Kremlin will use the Paris Summit results to justify domestic mobilization and continued hostilities.
Morale Operations: Pro-Russian sources are publicizing the death of RDK (Russian Volunteer Corps) member "Eney" (1941Z) to discourage Russian citizens from joining pro-Ukrainian volunteer units.
US Positioning: Conflicting messaging regarding "territorial questions" (1949Z) is being used by RF media to plant seeds of doubt regarding long-term Western commitment to Ukraine's 1991 borders.
5. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Kinetic activity will peak over Dnipro as the Shahed swarm enters the terminal phase. Expect follow-on KAB strikes in the Lyman and Donetsk sectors at dawn to capitalize on any AD saturation.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF may utilize the logistical disruption in Belgorod as a pretext for a localized "retaliation" strike using Iskander-M or North Korean ballistic missiles against Kharkiv or Sumy civilian centers during the Orthodox Christmas period.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Stary Oskol BDA: Confirm if the "large fire" (1955Z) is at the local railway junction or oil storage facilities; this determines the level of disruption to the Lyman-bound supply chain.
UAV Vector Analysis: Identify if the Shahed wave moving on Dnipro is accompanied by "Gerbera" decoy drones to deplete AD interceptors.
Personnel Intel: Exploit the capture of Lt. Shener for information regarding the 34th OMSBBr’s current strength and intentions in the Sumy/border sector.
7. RECOMMENDATIONS
Air Defense: Maintain high readiness in the Dnipro metropolitan area. Utilize electronic warfare (EW) to disrupt Shahed navigation if they transition to low-altitude city-grid penetration.
Operational Security (OPSEC): Limit movement of multinational personnel near identified "hubs" as RF will likely prioritize these for long-range targeting following the Starmer/Zelenskyy announcements.
Logistics: Anticipate potential retaliatory strikes on UAF fuel depots in the Kharkiv/Dnipro regions following the Belgorod successes.
