Strategic Enemy Reorganization (1732Z, Syrskyi/RBK-UA, HIGH): UAF CinC Syrskyi confirms the RF has established a dedicated "Unmanned Systems Force" numbering approximately 80,000 personnel. This institutionalizes drone operations at an unprecedented scale.
Aerial Threat - Mykolaiv (1748Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Enemy UAVs detected in southern Mykolaiv Oblast, moving on a northerly heading. This likely represents the vanguard of a multi-vector nighttime saturation attack.
Administrative Mobilization Update (1743Z, MOU/RBK-UA, HIGH): The "Rezerv+" application now includes notifications for physical summons sent via postal mail, streamlining UAF mobilization and tracking.
Internal Friction - Hulyaipole Sector (1746Z, DeepState, MEDIUM): Reports indicate internal command or organizational issues within the 108th Territorial Defense Brigade (108 ОБр ТрО) currently defending the Hulyaipole line.
Information Warfare - Peace Narratives (1732Z, RVvoenkor/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian sources are amplifying Western media reports (Fox News/NATO rep) regarding a "near-term resolution," while concurrently framing any NATO peacekeeping presence as a casus belli for continued war.
Military Discipline - RF Rear (1730Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Incident in Belgorod involving an intoxicated soldier stealing and crashing a vehicle highlights persistent personnel quality and discipline issues in the border region.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv/Belgorod)
Belgorod: Personnel discipline remains a vulnerability; incidental theft/accidents (1730Z) suggest lapses in command oversight in RF rear-area staging units.
Sumy: No new ground movement reported since the Znobovka bridge destruction; however, the sector remains under high threat of KAB strikes originating from the Voronezh air surge (SAR 21.65).
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Lyman)
Hulyaipole Sector: The 108th TDF Brigade is reportedly facing internal challenges (1746Z). While the specific nature is unconfirmed, this represents a potential weakness in a critical defensive hinge.
Chasiv Yar/Donetsk: Saturation of the "grey zone" continues. RF is leveraging the 400+ daily UAV production (1703Z, 1757Z) to maintain 24/7 surveillance and strike capability over UAF forward positions.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Mykolaiv)
Mykolaiv: Immediate threat of UAV strikes (1748Z). "Shahed-type" drones are utilizing southern corridors to bypass primary AD concentrations.
Zaporizhzhia: Kinetic pressure remains high following the civilian casualties in the district (1724Z).
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is increasingly dominated by unmanned systems. The RF's creation of an 80,000-man Unmanned Systems Force (1732Z) signifies a shift from "drone-supported" warfare to "drone-centric" operations. Concurrently, Russia is attempting to balance a narrative of "imminent peace" (1732Z) with "total mobilization" (Putin's economic growth orders, 1750Z) to confuse Western policy responses.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Capabilities: With 80,000 personnel and 400+ UAVs produced daily, the RF is building a capability to sustain high-intensity remote attrition without the immediate need for armored breakthroughs.
Courses of Action: RF is using "Shahed" drones as night-interdiction tools (1732Z, 1748Z) to fix UAF air defenses while planning strategic strikes on infrastructure.
Force Quality: While strategic production is high, tactical discipline in border regions like Belgorod (1730Z) remains low, suggesting a tiered force quality where high-tech drone units are prioritized over conventional border security.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Sustainment: The "Rezerv+" update (1743Z) is a critical step in modernizing the human resource pipeline, addressing long-term manpower requirements.
Vulnerabilities: The reported issues in the 108th TDF (1746Z) in the Hulyaipole sector are a priority concern. Any degradation in command and control (C2) in this sector could be exploited by RF forces seeking to bypass Zaporizhzhia's eastern flank.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Distraction: Pro-RU channels are gauging support for the "Taking of Odesa" (1732Z) while simultaneously pushing Fox News reports of a "peace deal" (1732Z). This contradictory messaging is designed to create uncertainty in Western capitals regarding RU's ultimate objectives.
Anti-NATO Sentiment: The immediate rejection of NATO peacekeeping as a "two-move trick" (1746Z) indicates RF is preemptively framing any non-Russian security guarantees as an escalation.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A massive nighttime UAV saturation attack targeting Mykolaiv and Central Ukraine within the next 4-8 hours (2200Z-0400Z). This will likely be used to identify gaps in AD for a secondary missile strike on Jan 7.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported friction in the 108th TDF (Hulyaipole) to launch a surprise mechanized assault on the Zaporizhzhia flank, supported by a concentration of the new 80,000-strong drone force to suppress UAF anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) teams.
Timeline: The high SAR activity at Voronezh (21.65) and the 1748Z drone sightings suggest the kinetic peak will occur between 0000Z and 0300Z.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
108th TDF Status: Immediate HUMINT/Internal reporting required to clarify the "internal issues" in Hulyaipole. Is this a C2 failure, supply shortage, or morale collapse?
80k Drone Force Disposition: Determine the geographic distribution of the 80,000 "Unmanned Systems Force" personnel. Are they centralized or distributed among existing Army Groups?
UAV Launch Origin: Confirm if the Mykolaiv drones (1748Z) originated from occupied Crimea or the Primorsko-Akhtarsk vector.
