Strategic UAV Production - RF (1703Z, Syrskyi/ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi confirms RF industry has reached a production rate of over 400 "Shahed-type" (Geran) UAVs per day, meeting 100% of the state defense order.
ISR Activity - Kryvyi Rih (1704Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): An enemy reconnaissance UAV has been detected approaching Kryvyi Rih from the southeast. UAF identifies this as a potential fire-correction asset for an imminent strike.
Civilian Casualties - Zaporizhzhia (1724Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): A hostile strike on the Zaporizhzhia district has resulted in 1 KIA and 1 WIA.
Negotiation Posture - RF (1707Z, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Intelligence sources indicate that for the RF leadership, "control over territories" remains the non-negotiable priority in any potential peace discussions, signaling a lack of intent for withdrawal.
Logistics Sustainment - RF Volunteers (1658Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-RU sources are initiating a 5th vehicle convoy and drone procurement drive, indicating that despite high industrial output, tactical-level logistics still rely heavily on volunteer crowdfunding.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv/Rear)
Sumy Border: Situation remains tense following the destruction of the Znobovka bridge (reported 1442Z). RF continues to consolidate its hold on Hrabovske to create a "sanitary zone."
Rear (RF): Domestic instability indicators remain present. A significant gas explosion in a private residence in Ingushetia resulted in seven casualties (1709Z, TASS). While likely accidental, it adds to the domestic emergency response burden.
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Lyman)
Donetsk (Chasiv Yar): New imagery (1721Z) highlights the "grey zone" expansion as the city is systematically leveled. RF is likely using this destruction to deny UAF defensive cover.
Southern Donetsk (Hulyaipole Sector):UNCONFIRMED reports from RF sources claim high attrition rates in the UAF 225th and 425th Assault Regiments due to "suicidal" infantry assaults without armor support (1700Z, Voin DV). Confidence: LOW. This bears the hallmarks of a narrative aimed at demoralizing UAF personnel.
Kostiantynivka: RF clearing operations by Akhmat units (reported 1642Z) continue in the private sector.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Zaporizhzhia: Kinetic activity remains high. A confirmed strike on the Zaporizhzhia district (1724Z) suggests RF is maintaining pressure on the administrative center's outskirts.
Kryvyi Rih: High alert for missile/drone strikes following the detection of an RF reconnaissance UAV loitering southeast of the city (1704Z).
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently defined by a "technical surge" from the RF military-industrial complex and a focus on localized attrition. The confirmation of 400+ daily UAV production (1703Z) indicates that RF has successfully transitioned to a sustainable, high-volume long-range strike capability. Concurrently, RF continues to use ISR drones to prep for tactical strikes in the Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia sectors.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Capabilities: RF has achieved industrial-scale production of "Geran" UAVs. This capacity allows for the exhaustion of Ukrainian air defense (AD) interceptors through sheer volume.
Tactical Changes: Increased use of dedicated recon UAVs (1704Z) as "spotters" ahead of kinetic strikes suggests a move toward more precise targeting of energy or logistics infrastructure in the rear.
Command & Control: Public appeals for military aid and reports of corruption (Alex Parker, 1706Z) suggest that while strategic production is high, tactical units still suffer from bureaucratic friction and supply gaps.
Diplomatic Intent: The emphasis on territorial control (1707Z) suggests RF will likely intensify operations to seize more ground before any potential freeze in the conflict.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Postures: UAF is maintaining a flexible defense in Chasiv Yar and the Pokrovsk direction but faces high pressure from KAB strikes and infantry-led clearing operations.
ISR/Counter-UAV: UAF Air Force is successfully tracking enemy recon assets (1704Z), allowing for early warning; however, the volume of incoming UAVs remains the primary challenge.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Distraction Operations: A heavy volume of Russian reporting on Donald Trump (Venezuela policy, domestic "dancing," 3rd term claims) (1658Z, 1709Z) is being used to dominate the information space and distract from UAF deep strikes (Kostroma) and internal RF issues.
Fear Induction: Russian channels (Basurin, 1707Z) are actively pushing a "Third World War" narrative, blaming US actions for an imminent global conflict to pressure Western audiences.
Demoralization: Targeted narratives regarding "meat assaults" in the Hulyaipole sector aim to degrade UAF morale (1700Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a multi-vector UAV strike (Shahed/Geran) totaling 80-100+ units within the next 12 hours, targeting energy nodes and the Kryvyi Rih industrial sector, guided by the recently detected recon assets.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes its 400+ drone production surplus to launch a continuous, multi-day saturation attack that overloads UAF AD in a single sector (e.g., Kyiv or Dnipro), followed by a heavy missile (Tu-95MS) strike to destroy hardened infrastructure.
Timeline: Expect peak kinetic activity between 2200Z and 0400Z (Jan 6-7), coinciding with the Orthodox Christmas Eve, as per previous holiday strike patterns.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kryvyi Rih Target Intent: Determine if the recon UAV (1704Z) is targeting the Kryvyi Rih steel plant or military logistics nodes.
Hulyaipole Attrition: Verify the status of the 225th/425th UAF Regiments via internal channels to counter pro-RU disinformation.
UAV Storage Sites: Identify the assembly/distribution hubs for the 400+ daily UAVs to enable pre-emptive deep strikes (similar to Kostroma).
