Strategic UAV Production - RF (1634Z, Operativno ZSU/Syrskyi, HIGH): Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports RF defense industry has reached a production rate of over 400 long-range UAVs per day, meeting 106% of its annual state order.
Drone Attrition Inflection Point (1636Z, Operativno ZSU/Syrskyi, HIGH): UAF Unmanned Systems units neutralized approximately 33,000 RF personnel in December, roughly equaling the monthly RF mobilization/recruitment rate.
Tactical Engagement - Kostiantynivka Sector (1642Z, Kadyrov_95, MEDIUM): RF forces, including the 78th "Sever-Akhmat" and 1194th Motorized Rifle Regiments, report clearing operations in the private sector of Kostiantynivka (Donetsk).
Logistics Interdiction - Pokrovsk Direction (1631Z/1654Z, Butusov/Sternenko, HIGH): UAF drone units "Skelya" and "Phoenix" confirmed multiple successful strikes against RF infantry and logistics hubs in the Pokrovsk sector.
UAV Threat Downgrade - Lipetsk (1637Z, Igor Artamonov, MEDIUM): The "Red Level" UAV attack threat in the Lipetsk region has been cancelled following earlier strikes on oil infrastructure.
Geopolitical Friction - Kazakhstan (1650Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Kazakh authorities have initiated criminal cases against citizens expressing support for UAF strikes on Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure, highlighting sensitivity regarding Black Sea energy GLOCs.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv/Rear)
Lipetsk/Rear: The immediate UAV threat has subsided (1637Z). However, the earlier successful strike on the Lipetsk oil depot continues to impact local fuel distribution.
Weather Factor: Aerial imagery from tactical aviation cockpits confirms significant snowfall across the theater (1641Z), which will likely degrade visual-spectrum ISR and complicate ground maneuvers over the next 12-24 hours.
Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donetsk)
Pokrovsk Sector: This remains the primary focus of UAF "deep tactical" drone operations. The "Phoenix" and "Skelya" units are specifically targeting RF logistics vehicles to starve the forward assault groups (1654Z).
Donetsk/Kostiantynivka: Increased activity from Chechen-aligned "Sever-Akhmat" units suggests RF is utilizing high-readiness infantry for house-to-house clearing in the Kostiantynivka private sector, indicating a slow, high-attrition urban combat phase.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Priazovye)
Occupation Zone: The Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) reports RF is accelerating the militarization of the Priazovye region (Azov coast) under the guise of "civilian revival," likely preparing secondary and tertiary defensive lines.
Sustainment: UAF "South" group conducted a large-scale blood donation drive (1639Z), suggesting a proactive build-up of medical reserves in anticipation of increased kinetic activity in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
INTELLIGENCE PREPARATION OF THE BATTLEFIELD (IPB)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is characterized by heavy snowfall (1641Z) and a transition to high-intensity drone-based attrition. The strategic balance is shifting toward a "war of industrial capacity," with RF demonstrating significant long-range UAV production (400+/day). However, UAF has achieved a tactical milestone by matching RF's recruitment rate with drone-based neutralization (33,000/month).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RF)
Capabilities: RF has successfully scaled its VPK (Military-Industrial Complex) for long-range drone production, which will likely result in sustained, daily saturation attacks on Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure.
Tactical Changes: In the Donetsk sector, RF is pairing Akhmat units with standard motorized rifle regiments (1194th MRR) for specialized urban clearing operations.
Sustainment: Despite high production, RF reliance on volunteer batteries (reported in previous sitrep) indicates a continued bottleneck in tactical-level high-tech components compared to their strategic-level success.
UNCONFIRMED Rumors: Highly speculative reports suggest instability in RF leadership (Putin’s absence since Dec 22) or "Swan Lake" broadcasts on UVB-76 (1631Z, Alex Parker). Confidence: LOW. This is likely a coordinated psychological operation or fringe speculation and does not align with current military posture.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Technological Superiority: UAF Unmanned Systems Forces have become the primary kinetic driver, achieving parity with enemy manpower replenishment.
Logistics interdiction: The focused targeting of RF logistics in the Pokrovsk direction by specialized drone groups ("Phoenix") is the primary defensive counter-measure against RF's slow-push tactics.
Medical Readiness: Sustained internal blood drives in the South (1639Z) indicate high morale and preparation for defensive operations.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Distraction Campaigns: A surge in content regarding US operations in Venezuela (1637Z) and speculative internal RF power struggles (1631Z) is being used to dilute the impact of UAF deep-strike successes (Kostroma/Lipetsk).
Economic Warfare: RF is weaponizing the box office success of domestic films (TASS, 1637Z) to project a narrative of "business as usual" and economic resilience during the holiday season.
Regional Friction: Kazakhstan’s legal crackdown on pro-UA sentiment (1650Z) indicates successful RF diplomatic pressure to secure its energy transit corridors in the Caspian.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will utilize the 400+ daily long-range UAV production capacity to launch a massive, multi-vector strike on the Ukrainian energy grid within the next 24-48 hours, coinciding with the Orthodox holiday.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "Sever-Akhmat" units in Kostiantynivka to achieve a tactical breakthrough, leveraging the current snow-induced ISR "blind spots" to bypass UAF drone screens.
Timeline: Expect a surge in RF long-range aviation (Tu-95/160) activity within 12 hours as a follow-up to the current UAV production surge.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Marinera Tanker Status: Corroborate claims of US seizure of the RF tanker "Marinera" in the North Atlantic (1651Z). Is this a kinetic boarding or an info-op?
CPC Pipeline Vulnerability: Assess the likelihood of UAF strikes on Caspian Pipeline Consortium assets in light of Kazakh legal reactions.
Akhmat Disposition: Confirm the exact boundaries of the 78th "Sever-Akhmat" operation in Kostiantynivka to determine the depth of the RF penetration.
