Confirmed Offensive Operations - Burluk Direction (1603Z, Colonelcassad/Rybar, MEDIUM): RF 'Sever' Group of Forces has initiated localized offensive actions in the northern Kharkiv Oblast, specifically the Burluk sector near Volchansk.
Tactical Pressure - Sumy Border (1612Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): RF forces are conducting localized offensive actions in the Krasnopolye sector (Sumy region), likely attempting to exploit the GLOC disruptions caused by the Znobovka bridge destruction.
Infrastructure Degradation - Nationwide (1603Z, Ukrenergo/RBC-UA, HIGH): "Ukrenergo" has announced mandatory power consumption limit schedules for all Ukrainian regions effective January 7, indicating systemic strain on the energy grid following recent strikes.
Verification of Strike - Kostroma (1625Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Russian state-affiliated media has confirmed the fire at the military unit/arsenal in Kostroma, validating UAF long-range strike success reported in the previous 24h cycle.
Tactical UAV Threat - Zaporizhzhia (1625Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): Inbound UAVs detected approaching Zaporizhzhia from the south; AD assets on high alert.
Crowdsourced Logistics - RF VDV (1611Z, Dva Mayora, MEDIUM): Delivery of 600 specialized battery cells to RF paratrooper units for drone operations, highlighting reliance on volunteer logistics to sustain tactical ISR and FPV capacity.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv)
Burluk/Volchansk Sector: New operational data indicates the RF 'Sever' Group is pushing localized assaults. This appears to be a multi-vector shaping operation to fix UAF reserves in Kharkiv and prevent their redistribution to the deteriorating Pokrovsk sector.
Sumy/Krasnopolye: Combat activity reported near Krasnopolye. Combined with the isolation of Znobovka, the RF intent is to create a "sanitary zone" through kinetic pressure rather than deep penetration.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Donbas)
Donetsk Vector: Continuous pressure remains high. While no new ground gains were reported in the last 30 minutes, the confirmation of the Kostroma arsenal fire (1625Z) suggests a disruption to the ammunition supply chain for the "Zapad" and "Tsentr" groups is now in effect.
Dnipro/Rear: Confirmation of a 300-ton oil spill at an industrial site (Oleyna plant) in Dnipro following previous strikes. This continues to cause localized logistical friction and environmental hazards.
Southern Axis (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia)
Zaporizhzhia: Immediate threat from southbound UAVs (1625Z). This follows the 35th Army's reported drone harassment in the Huliaipole sector.
Maritime/International: RF propaganda (1620Z) is highlighting "re-flagging" of tankers to bypass US sanctions, indicating high-level concern regarding maritime interdiction and its impact on the RF war economy.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: RF is maintaining high kinetic pressure on the Kharkiv and Sumy borders to stretch UAF defensive density. The reliance on crowdsourced drone batteries suggests a bottleneck in formal MoD supply chains for high-attrition electronics.
Capabilities: Use of "Sever" Group in Kharkiv indicates a shift from defensive posturing to active tactical maneuvering in the northern theater.
Adaptation: RF information channels are increasingly utilizing "pre-bunking" and manipulated media to distract from deep-rear vulnerabilities (Kostroma/Lipetsk).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF Air Assault Forces (DShV) continue to release footage of successful engagements against foreign personnel (mercenaries) within RF units, used effectively for domestic and international psychological operations.
Strategic Resilience: Norway's clarification of security guarantees (1625Z) provides a diplomatic backstop to the current kinetic escalation.
Grid Management: Ukrenergo's proactive scheduling of blackouts suggests a shift to a "preservation footing" to prevent total grid collapse during anticipated winter strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
Manipulated Media (Trump Campaign): A high volume of manipulated or out-of-context video featuring Donald Trump (focusing on Venezuela, Greenland, and "weak Europe") is being disseminated across both UA and RF Telegram channels (1559Z-1614Z). This is a coordinated effort to inject geopolitical uncertainty and distract from battlefield developments.
Discrediting Leadership: RF channels (Colonelcassad) are actively weaponizing the Dnipro oil spill to discredit local Ukrainian administration (Mayor Filatov), framing technical recovery efforts as administrative failure.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued localized assaults in the Burluk (Kharkiv) and Krasnopolye (Sumy) sectors. Expected UAV and KAB saturation in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk.
MDCOA: RF 'Sever' Group attempts a breakthrough in the Burluk direction to sever the regional GLOCs between Kharkiv and Kupyansk, coinciding with the nationwide power restrictions to maximize civilian and military disruption.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Burluk Strength: Determine the echelon size of the 'Sever' Group units involved in the Burluk offensive. Is this a battalion-strength probe or a regimental-level assault?
UAV Launch Points: Identify the launch sites for the UAVs approaching Zaporizhzhia from the south to facilitate counter-battery or deep-strike neutralization.
Kostroma BDA: Obtain satellite imagery of the Kostroma military unit (1625Z) to assess the extent of the damage to ammunition stores and its projected impact on "Zapad" Group's fire intensity.
