Active Aviation Strike - Donetsk Axis (1532Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in the Donetsk region. This validates previous indicators of a surge at AB Voronezh Malshevo.
Deep Rear Vulnerability - Lipetsk Oblast (1537Z, Governor Artamonov, HIGH): "Red Level" UAV threat declared for Yelets and five surrounding districts. This indicates ongoing or imminent Ukrainian deep-strike operations following the earlier Lipetsk oil depot strike.
RF Tactical Expansion - Dnipropetrovsk Border (1535Z, Operation Z, MEDIUM): RF "Tsentr" Group (the "O" Group) claims to be conducting combat operations on the approaches to the Dnipropetrovsk region border, expanding the operational depth of the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad offensive.
Air Defense Activation - Pokrovsk Sector (1536Z, MoD Russia, HIGH): Tor-M2 SAM systems confirmed active in the "Krasnoarmeysk" (Pokrovsk) direction, specifically targeting UAF reconnaissance and FPV drones.
Zaporizhzhia UAV Activity - Huliaipole (1530Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM): 189th Motorized Rifle Regiment (35th Army) reported utilizing UAVs for "liquidation" of personnel, indicating persistent tactical harassment in the Southern sector.
Internal Political Shift - Regional Administration (1552Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers conducting interviews for new heads of Vinnytsia, Dnipro, Poltava, and Chernivtsi OVAs, suggesting a strategic reshuffle of regional leadership during a period of high kinetic pressure.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv)
Sumy Sector: While no new ground maneuver is reported in the last 30 minutes, the isolation of Znobovka remains the primary tactical concern. RF sources (1548Z) anticipate a mass UAF UAV counter-response against RF territory in the coming 48 hours.
Kharkiv Sector: Multi-vector UAV threats (identified in 1500Z-1515Z window) remain active; no confirmed kinetic impacts reported since the last sitrep, suggesting ongoing AD engagement.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Donbas)
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: The situation is deteriorating. RF "Tsentr" forces are pushing toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border. The use of Tor-M2 systems (1536Z) indicates RF is successfully moving short-range AD assets forward to protect their advancing columns from UAF drone superiority.
Donetsk Vector: Continuous KAB strikes (1532Z) are targeting UAF defensive nodes. This is a sustained "shaping" effort to degrade fortifications before small-unit "forest flanking" or "bypass" maneuvers.
Southern Axis (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia)
Huliaipole: RF 35th Army is prioritizing UAV-led attrition over ground assault. This suggests a fixing operation to prevent UAF from redistributing units to the Pokrovsk sector.
Zaporizhzhia City: Air raid sirens cleared as of 1541Z, but the threat remains high given the activity in Huliaipole.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation: The manifestation of KAB launches confirms the SAR-identified aviation buildup. RF is now in the "Execution" phase of a saturation bombing campaign.
Defensive Posture (Rear): RF is on high alert in Lipetsk. The specific mention of Yelets (a major rail and logistics hub) suggests they anticipate strikes on transportation infrastructure supporting the "Zapad" and "North" groups.
Predictive Counter-Strike: RF information channels (NgP RaZVedka) are "pre-bunking" a mass UAF drone strike. This is often a precursor to a large RF "retaliatory" missile wave, providing them with a defensive narrative.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Actively engaging KAB carriers and drones in the Donetsk and Kharkiv sectors. The use of drones in the Pokrovsk direction is forcing RF to expose their Tor-M2 positions.
Governance: The reshuffle of four key OVAs (Vinnytsia, Dnipro, Poltava, Chernivtsi) indicates a move to harden regional logistics and civil defense in the face of expanded RF operations toward the Dnipropetrovsk border.
International Support: Emergence of the "Coalition of the Willing" draft communique (1533Z) and Reuters reports on Western security commitments (1550Z) suggest a diplomatic "hardening" to counter RF's Christmas-window escalation.
Information environment / disinformation
Global Contextualization: RF sources (Rybar, ASTRA) are heavily pushing narratives regarding Venezuela and US domestic politics (Trump). This is intended to frame the Ukrainian war as a secondary theater to a global "anti-imperialist" struggle, specifically targeting non-aligned international audiences.
Psychological Operations: RF mil-bloggers continue to showcase drone "liquidation" footage (1530Z) to suppress UAF morale in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB saturation in the Donetsk sector. High probability of UAF deep-strikes on Yelets (Lipetsk) or surrounding logistics hubs to disrupt RF ammunition flow.
MDCOA: RF "Tsentr" group exploits the Dnipropetrovsk border seam, utilizing the Tor-SAM umbrella to launch a localized armored breakthrough while UAF is distracted by KAB strikes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Dnipropetrovsk Border Status: Urgent need for satellite or recon confirmation of RF proximity to the Dnipropetrovsk administrative line. Are they within tube artillery range (20-30km)?
Tor-M2 Disposition: Identify specific locations of the Tor-M2 systems reported by MoD Russia. Suppression of these assets is critical for restoring UAF drone dominance in the Pokrovsk sector.
Regional Leadership Change: Determine if the OVA reshuffle is related to identified security breaches or a shift toward a "total war" mobilization footing in the rear regions.
