Diplomatic Pivot: EU Peacekeeper Proposal (1411Z, Le Monde/Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): Reports indicate an EU proposal to deploy up to 30,000 peacekeepers to Western Ukraine. Concurrently, reports suggest Ukraine and allies are nearing consensus on "key documents" for a ceasefire (1410Z, Politico/RBC, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Aviation Strike: KAB Volleys on Donetsk (1427Z, UAF AF, HIGH): New launches of guided aerial bombs (KAB) targeting the Donetsk sector, maintaining the high-tempo suppression observed in previous cycles.
UAV Incursion: Multi-Vector Drone Swarm (1410Z-1425Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Multiple waves of Shahed-type UAVs detected entering from the south toward Zaporizhzhia and from the west toward Dnipro, with specific headings toward Magdalynivka.
Counter-Drone Adaptation: RF "Anti-Baba Yaga" Deployment (1414Z, Fighterbomber, MEDIUM): RF sources claim the deployment of a custom strike drone specifically designed to counter UAF "Baba Yaga" heavy hexacopters.
Infrastructure Confirmation: Kryvyi Rih Impact (1415Z, Vilkul/RBC, HIGH): Local authorities confirmed the earlier reported ballistic strike successfully hit a specific infrastructure object; damage assessment is ongoing.
Internal Security: DPSU Anti-Corruption Action (1400Z, PGO, HIGH): A State Border Guard Service (DPSU) official was detained for soliciting "kickbacks" on military spare parts procurement.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv)
Status: Baseline activity continues. No new ground incursions reported in the last 60 minutes.
Intelligence Note: The H-07 highway remains under threat following the RF 34th OMSBBr consolidation in Hrabovske (Daily Report).
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Donetsk)
Oleksandrivka: Reported as "hot" with UAF Presidential Brigade's "BULAVA" unit actively utilizing drone-dropped munitions and FPVs to suppress RF infantry (1409Z).
Bombardment: Sustained KAB strikes are targeting UAF tactical depth, likely intended to degrade the 55th Artillery Brigade's drone interceptor crews which have been active in the sector since mid-2025 (1408Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk)
Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia: Currently under active UAV threat. Shahed-type drones are utilizing western and southern vectors to complicate AD tracking (1410Z-1425Z).
Kryvyi Rih: The 1415Z confirmation of the infrastructure hit underscores the vulnerability of the sector to ballistic threats with minimal lead time.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Evolution: The RF deployment of a "Baba Yaga" counter-drone (1414Z) indicates a rapid iteration cycle in electronic and kinetic warfare aimed at neutralizing UAF’s heavy drone advantage.
Coordinated Strikes: The synchronization of KAB launches with multi-vector UAV swarms suggests an effort to saturate UAF Air Defense and Command & Control (C2) during a period of high political sensitivity (ceasefire rumors).
Logistical Interdiction: The targeting of DPSU spare parts procurement through corruption/kickbacks (1400Z) highlights a persistent hybrid threat where administrative failures directly degrade frontline vehicle availability.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Drone Interceptor Operations: UAF 55th Artillery Brigade has confirmed the integration of dedicated drone-interceptor crews (1408Z), representing a shift toward using small UAS for local air defense against RF reconnaissance and FPV assets.
Sustained Defensive Fires: The "BULAVA" unit (Presidential Brigade) continues to demonstrate high-efficiency attrition of RF ground groups in the Oleksandrivka sector (1409Z).
Institutional Integrity: The arrest of the DPSU official by the Prosecutor General’s Office (1400Z) signals ongoing efforts to prevent internal logistical sabotage.
Information environment / disinformation
Ceasefire Narrative: A surge in reporting from both Western (Politico, Le Monde) and pro-RF (Operatsiya Z) sources regarding "binding commitments" and "peacekeeper deployments" is likely intended to shape expectations.
RF Framing: Pro-RF channels (Janus Putkonen, 1402Z) are framing the situation as a global conflict involving US-led "coups," attempting to distract from localized tactical attrition.
Negotiation Pressures: Rumors of Putin influencing US leadership (1426Z) are being circulated to create a sense of inevitability regarding unfavorable terms for Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV and KAB saturation of the Dnipro and Donetsk sectors to maintain pressure while diplomatic rumors circulate. RF will likely attempt to seize tactical high-ground or forest cover in the Lyman sector before any potential freeze in movement.
MDCOA: A massive, coordinated missile wave targeting the Dnipro logistical hub, leveraging the "blind spot" identified in the Kryvyi Rih strike and the ongoing oil spill complications (Daily Report) to paralyzed the southern front.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
RF Anti-Drone Specs: Detailed technical analysis of the "Baba Yaga answer" drone. Is it EW-based, a kinetic interceptor, or an FPV-class hunter? (Priority 1)
Ceasefire Document Veracity: High-level confirmation of the "Politico" reported documents. Do these include territorial concessions or strictly security guarantees? (Priority 1)
Magdalynivka Targeting: Determine if the UAV course toward Magdalynivka (1425Z) indicates a new focus on rural electrical substations or grain storage. (Priority 2)
