Infrastructure Strike: Ballistic Impact on Kryvyi Rih (1346Z-1357Z, Vilkul/Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Confirmed ballistic strike on a critical infrastructure object. Preliminary assessments indicate no casualties, but significant structural damage. Air Force issued "all clear" for ballistic threats at 1343Z, shortly before local confirmation of impact.
Tactical Shift: Forest Maneuvers in Lyman Sector (1330Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): RF forces have shifted to prioritized flanking maneuvers within forested terrain in the Lyman direction to mitigate UAF drone surveillance.
Aerial Bombardment: Multi-Sector KAB Launches (1344Z-1355Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Coordinated Russian tactical aviation strikes using KAB guided bombs against the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy sectors.
Contested Status: Rodinskoye Urban Combat (1341Z, Colonelcassad, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Pro-RF sources claim the capture of UAF personnel in Rodinskoye, alleging UAF units were tasked only with "flag-planting" for information operations. This suggests the town remains a high-friction zone and is likely partially or fully occupied by RF forces.
Tactical Engagement: VDV Activity in Zaporizhzhia (1340Z-1347Z, Dva Mayora/Paratrooper’s Diary, MEDIUM): Elements of the RF 108th Regiment (7th VDV Division) engaged UAF infantry groups near Prymorske using drone-corrected fire.
Internal Security: Corruption Allegations in UAF Procurement (1331Z, Operatsiya Z/NABU, MEDIUM): Reports of a 27 million UAH embezzlement scheme involving aircraft tire procurement. While sourced from pro-RF channels, it cites the Ukrainian NABU, indicating a potential internal investigation.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv)
Sumy: New KAB launches detected (1355Z). This follows the previous report of RF 34th OMSBBr attempts to interdict the H-07 highway. The persistent use of guided bombs indicates an intent to suppress UAF defensive positions without committing further ground armor.
Lyman/Forests: RF is utilizing "forest flanking" tactics. Thick cover is being used to mask the movement of small tactical groups, likely aiming to bypass UAF forward strongpoints.
Eastern Axis (Donbas/Donetsk)
Rodinskoye/Myrnohrad: The situation in Rodinskoye is critical. If RF claims of capturing "flag-planting" units are accurate, it indicates UAF may be utilizing specialized units for high-risk symbolic presence to mask a general withdrawal or to stall RF advances toward the Myrnohrad rail links.
Dobropolye Salient: RF units in this sector are receiving logistical support via specialized fundraising (1331Z), suggesting sustained operations in this specific bulge.
KAB Strikes: Simultaneous launches across Donetsk (1344Z) indicate a wide-front suppression effort to prevent UAF from shifting reserves.
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih)
Kryvyi Rih: Successfully targeted by ballistics. This remains a "blind spot" for consistent early warning, as impacts are occurring near-simultaneously with or before alert distribution.
Prymorske (Zaporizhzhia): Active engagement by VDV paratroopers. The use of the 108th Regiment suggests high-quality RF infantry are holding or probing the line in this sector, supported by effective ISR (1340Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The move to forested flanking in the Lyman direction represents an adaptation to UAF’s superior drone-monitored "transparent battlefield." Small unit tactics in dense cover will likely increase infantry-on-infantry engagements.
Multi-Domain Pressure: RF is coordinating deep infrastructure strikes (Kryvyi Rih) with wide-area tactical bombing (KABs) and intensified disinformation regarding UAF leadership/corruption to degrade morale.
Domestic Friction: Extreme cold (-25°C) in RF rear areas (1340Z) is causing civilian infrastructure failures. While not immediately impacting the front, prolonged utility collapses in the RF rear may trigger local unrest or divert Rosgvardia assets from occupied territories.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Response: Continued use of FPV drones for precision strikes, as highlighted by "STERNENKO" (1352Z), targeting RF equipment and infantry in the open.
Anti-Corruption: If confirmed, the NABU investigation into aircraft tire procurement demonstrates ongoing efforts to maintain institutional integrity despite active hostilities.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Flag-Planting" Narrative: RF sources are framing UAF presence in Rodinskoye as purely "psychological" and "PR-focused." This is a classic narrative designed to delegitimize UAF defensive persistence and signal the "inevitability" of the city's fall.
Venezuela/US Mapping: RF channels (Operatsiya Z, Basurin) are heavily promoting maps of "US aggression" and the "disappearance" of Maduro. This is likely an attempt to frame the Ukraine conflict as part of a global anti-colonial struggle, catering to both domestic audiences and the "Global South."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued saturation of the Donetsk and Sumy fronts with KAB strikes to facilitate further "forest-based" infantry probes in the Lyman and Northern axes.
MDCOA: RF leverages the confirmed infrastructure damage in Kryvyi Rih to launch a secondary, larger ballistic or cruise missile wave targeting the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk rail junctions while UAF logistics are disrupted.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Rodinskoye Control: Urgent confirmation of the frontline through Rodinskoye. Is the city center contested or under RF control? (Priority 1)
Kryvyi Rih Damage Assessment: Confirm if the "infrastructure object" (1346Z) is energy, rail, or water-related. (Priority 1)
Lyman Forest Dispositions: Identify specific RF units involved in the new forested flanking maneuvers to determine if these are VDV or regular motorized rifle units. (Priority 2)
NABU Report Verification: Confirm the validity of the 27M UAH procurement theft to assess impact on air force readiness and internal morale. (Priority 2)
