Strategic Strike: Ballistic Impact on Kryvyi Rih (1315Z-1324Z, UAF AF/Vilkul, HIGH): Confirmed ballistic missile strikes on Kryvyi Rih. Reports indicate some air alerts were delayed until after impact, suggesting high-velocity profiles or low-observable flight paths.
Deep Strike: UAV Incursion into Vologda Oblast (1315Z, ASTRA/Local Authorities, MEDIUM): Six drones reported "fallen" or intercepted in Vologda Oblast, Russia. This indicates sustained UAF long-range strike capability against RF industrial/logistic rear.
Kharkiv Sector: Mechanized Engagement at Volchanskiye Khutora (1315Z, Kadyrov_95, MEDIUM): Reports of coordinated combat involving RF "Zapad-Akhmat" and the 128th Motorized Rifle Brigade in snowy conditions near Volchanskiye Khutora.
Northern Axis: Aerial Bombardment of Sumy (1305Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Tactical aviation (VKS) launched KAB guided bombs toward Sumy, likely supporting the 34th OMSBBr’s attempt to sever the H-07 highway.
ISR Activity: Zaporizhzhia Spotting (1308Z, UAF AF/OVA, HIGH): A Russian reconnaissance UAV was detected over the Zaporizhzhia district. UAF assets are actively engaging to prevent terminal guidance for expected follow-up strikes.
Information Warfare: Venezuela/Caracas Narrative (1312Z-1319Z, Rybar/Strelkov/Alex Parker, MEDIUM): Significant internal friction in the RF information space. Mil-bloggers are criticizing the Kremlin’s perceived weakness following US strikes in Caracas, potentially pressuring the RF MoD for "demonstrative" escalations in Ukraine.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kharkiv)
Sumy: Targeted by KAB strikes. This reinforces the assessment that RF is attempting to fix UAF forces and degrade logistics supporting the northern border defenses.
Kharkiv (Volchanskiye Khutora): Active ground combat involving Chechen "Akhmat" units and regular MoD motorized rifle units. The use of combined-arms groups in this sector suggests a push to expand the buffer zone near Vovchansk.
Chernihiv: Presence of RF UAVs heading east (1324Z) suggests ongoing ISR for corridor monitoring or future strike planning.
Eastern Axis (Kupyansk/Donbas/Donetsk)
Kupyansk: RF MoD claims to be destroying UAF assets intended for counter-attacks (1303Z). High-intensity artillery and drone-strike video evidence suggest a contested environment where RF is prioritizing counter-battery and interdiction of UAF rotations.
Konstantinovka Direction: RF/DPR forces utilizing "Okhotnik" drone systems to target UAF armor (1303Z).
Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro)
Kryvyi Rih: Currently a primary target for RF ballistic assets. Explosions confirmed (1320Z). This city serves as a critical logistics node for the Southern front; strikes here aim to disrupt the flow of Western material and reserves.
Zaporizhzhia: Heightened ISR activity. The presence of a "navводник" (spotter) UAV (1308Z) suggests an impending missile or heavy artillery strike on regional infrastructure or troop concentrations.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Ballistic Escalation: The shift to ballistic missiles against Kryvyi Rih—combined with the failure of timely air alerts—indicates an RF attempt to exploit gaps in UAF's medium-range AD coverage.
Tactical Coordination: The integration of "Akhmat" units with the 128th Brigade in Kharkiv suggests improved command-and-control (C2) at the tactical level, moving away from fragmented volunteer-only pushes.
Vulnerability in the Rear: The drone strikes in Vologda (deep rear) highlight RF’s persistent inability to secure its domestic industrial base against low-cost aerial threats.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Actively engaging recon UAVs in Zaporizhzhia and monitoring ballistic trajectories in the Kirovohrad/Kryvyi Rih sectors.
Counter-ISR: Immediate deployment of EW and kinetic interceptors to neutralize the UAV spotter over Zaporizhzhia.
Strategic Communication: Monitoring and potentially exploiting the RF mil-blogger discontent regarding Venezuela to seed further distrust in RF military leadership.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Venezuela Humiliation": A coordinated narrative is emerging across Russian opposition and ultra-nationalist channels (Strelkov/Parker) suggesting Putin is "selling out" allies for concessions in Ukraine. This creates domestic pressure on the Kremlin to show strength.
Armored Loss Claims (UNCONFIRMED): Pro-RF sources claim UAF lost 350+ tanks in 2025 (1302Z). This is assessed as retroactive propaganda (LOW confidence) designed to mask current RF attrition rates and influence Western aid debates.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued ballistic and KAB strikes on the Kryvyi Rih-Sumy-Zaporizhzhia arc to disrupt UAF logistics ahead of localized ground pushes in Kharkiv and Huliaipole.
MDCOA: RF leverages the detection gap in Kryvyi Rih’s AD to launch a multi-missile "swarm" strike on the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk rail links, coinciding with a mechanized assault in the Kharkiv direction to force a total collapse of the northern flank.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kryvyi Rih Damage Assessment: Identify the specific targets of the ballistic strikes (rail, energy, or barracks) to determine RF's current operational priority. (Priority 1)
Detection Failure Analysis: Investigate why air alerts in some districts were delayed (1322Z). Was this due to low-altitude flight, new jamming techniques, or sensor saturation? (Priority 1)
Vologda Strike Targets: Identify the specific facilities targeted in Vologda to assess the impact on RF's long-term production/logistics capacity. (Priority 2)
Volchanskiye Khutora Dispositions: Confirm if the RF 128th BDE is operating at full strength or if this is a composite tactical group. (Priority 2)
