Strategic Deep Strike: Kostroma Oblast (1107Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): UAF drone debris caused a fire at a Russian military unit in Kostroma Oblast. This demonstrates UAF capability to penetrate >500km into RF territory, targeting mobilization/sustainment infrastructure.
Diplomatic Arrival: Zelenskyy in Paris (1059Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has officially arrived in Paris for high-level negotiations regarding the "Paris Agreements."
Northern Front: EW Interdiction (1121Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): RF "Sever" Group confirmed the destruction of a Ukrainian "Nota" Electronic Warfare (EW) complex using a Lancet loitering munition. This indicates a systematic RF effort to degrade UAF drone suppression in the Northern border region.
Southern Sector: Strike on Zaliznychne (1100Z, Воин DV, MEDIUM): RF 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th Army) conducted drone strikes on a UAF strongpoint in Zaliznychne (Zaporizhzhia axis), indicating continued pressure on the Hulyaypole flank.
Operational Intensity: Pokrovsk Encirclement Details (1112Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH): Testimonies from the UAF 155th Brigade describe 80 days of combat in Pokrovsk, much of it in "near-encirclement" conditions, highlighting the extreme attrition and tactical isolation of forward units.
Geopolitical Friction: Chinese Neutrality (1122Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): Chinese MFA declined to explicitly confirm if the principle of "respecting sovereignty" applies to Ukraine, signaling a continued refusal to distance itself from RF strategic interests.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational tempo is characterized by a "dual-front" struggle: a high-stakes diplomatic effort in Western Europe and a grinding war of attrition in the Donbas and Northern border regions.
Battlefield Geometry:
Northern Axis: The RF "Sever" Group is transitioning from probing attacks to systematic suppression of UAF technical assets (EW/UAV launch sites) in the Sumy-Chernihiv direction (1119Z, 1121Z).
Pokrovsk Sector: Combat has shifted to high-intensity urban attrition. UAF units are reporting prolonged periods of isolation, suggesting RF "bypass" tactics are successfully creating tactical pockets.
RF Rear: The strike in Kostroma indicates the RF's inability to provide comprehensive AD coverage for interior military districts.
Weather/Environmental: Persistent cloud cover in Chernihiv/Sumy facilitates low-altitude UAV penetration but limits high-altitude ISR.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Counter-EW Operations: The RF is prioritizing the destruction of UAF EW assets (e.g., "Nota") to regain drone air parity. This is a prerequisite for the MDCOA (cutting the H-07 highway).
Aviation/Artillery Integration: The "Sever" Group is showing improved sensor-to-shooter links, using UAVs to guide Msta-B howitzers against dugouts and launch sites (1119Z).
Tactical Adaptations: RF forces are increasingly using loitering munitions (Lancet) to target high-value mobile assets (EW vehicles/minibuses) rather than just static fortifications.
Logistics & Personnel: Heavy reliance on "Group Vostochny" (5th Army) in the South to fix UAF forces while "Tsentr" focuses on the Pokrovsk breakthrough.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
UAF Posture:
Resilience under Pressure: The 155th Brigade continues to hold sectors in/around Pokrovsk despite significant logistical strain and "encirclement" conditions.
Asymmetric Response: UAF continues to utilize deep-rear drone strikes (Kostroma) to offset frontline pressure and force RF to redeploy AD assets from the front.
Morale & Recruitment: The Command of the Airborne Assault Forces (DSHV) is actively pushing a high-production recruitment drive (1057Z), suggesting a need for fresh, high-quality replacements to sustain the high-tempo mobile defense.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Russian Hybrid Narratives:
Domestic Instability: RF channels are amplifying rumors of Putin's "disappearance" (1125Z) to distract from internal dissent or to mask leadership shifts.
UAF Degradation: Propaganda regarding "labor camps" for draft dodgers (1121Z) aims to undermine Ukrainian mobilization efforts and social cohesion.
International Friction: RF-linked channels are amplifying UK PM Starmer’s cautious response to US actions in Venezuela (1116Z) to portray the West as fragmented and distracted from the Ukrainian theater.
Legal Warfare: Kazakhstan's prosecution of citizens for commenting on UAF drone strikes (1123Z) suggests successful RF diplomatic pressure on CSTO allies to suppress pro-Ukrainian sentiment.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RF will maintain high-intensity artillery and Lancet strikes in the Sumy/Chernihiv sectors to suppress UAF EW, preparing the ground for further small-unit territorial gains to create a "sanitary zone."
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A sudden mechanized thrust from the Fedorivka-Novomarkove axis (established in previous sitrep) toward the Myrnohrad rail junction, timed to exploit the technical gap created by the destruction of UAF EW assets.
Timeline (Next 6-12h): Expect a "propaganda spike" following the conclusion of the Paris talks. Russian strategic aviation activity at AB Monchegorsk (as per previous daily report) remains a critical indicator for a multi-axis missile strike NLT 0700Z JAN 07.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kostroma Battle Damage Assessment (BDA): Confirm the specific military unit hit in Kostroma and if it impacts regional mobilization or missile storage. (Priority 1)
Northern EW Density: Assess the remaining density of "Nota" and other EW systems in the Sumy sector following the 1121Z Lancet strike. (Priority 1)
Zaliznychne Integrity: Determine if the strike on the UAF strongpoint (1100Z) was a precursor to a local ground assault by the RF 60th MRB. (Priority 2)
