RF Tactical Gains in Donetsk (1034Z, DeepState, HIGH): Confirmed Russian advances near Fedorivka and Novomarkove. This broadens the pressure on the Bakhmut-Siversk axis.
Strategic Diplomacy: Zelenskyy in Paris (1055Z, RBK-Україна, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has arrived in France to finalize the "Paris Agreements." Reports suggest a subsequent signing in Washington is imminent (1044Z).
Rodinske Status Confirmed (1055Z, NM DNR, MEDIUM): Russian sources released footage of captured Ukrainian National Guard (NGU) personnel allegedly attempting to plant a flag in Rodinske. This confirms Russian presence and likely tactical control of the settlement, resolving a previous intelligence gap.
Cross-Border FPV Strike (1030Z, ASTRA, HIGH): UAF-linked FPV drone strike targeted a civilian vehicle in Grayvoron, Belgorod Oblast, maintaining pressure on Russian border security.
Targeted Strikes on Law Enforcement (1039Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Russian strike in Zaporizhzhia Oblast wounded three Ukrainian police officers, indicating continued targeting of rear-area security personnel.
RF Internal Friction: Conscript Casualties (1045Z, MOBILIZATION News, MEDIUM): Reports indicate >100 conscripts from the Pribaikalye region were killed after being coerced into contracts, potentially fueling domestic resentment in the RF.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment is shifting toward a period of high-stakes diplomacy (Paris/Washington) coinciding with Russian efforts to consolidate recent gains in the Donbas and expand the conflict to the Northern border.
Battlefield Geometry:
Donetsk Sector: The front is expanding laterally near Fedorivka. The capture of NGU personnel in Rodinske suggests the RF has successfully established a perimeter in this previously contested zone, threatening the Myrnohrad rail links.
Sumy Sector: Active operations continue (1039Z); previous reports of the capture of Hrabovske suggest this is now a sustained front rather than a raid.
Weather/Environment: Cold weather continues to dictate tactical pacing; however, both sides are heavily utilizing FPV drones and UGVs (as seen in Kherson) to compensate for personnel exposure in open terrain.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Donbas Consolidation: The RF is prioritizing the "cleaning" of pockets like Rodinske to secure their flanks before a potential thrust toward Myrnohrad.
Information Warfare: Russian milbloggers are heavily amplifying narratives of NATO instability (Greenland/Denmark/US friction) to undermine Western cohesion during Zelenskyy’s Paris visit (1040Z, 1049Z).
Tactical Changes: RF is emphasizing "adaptation" of Air Defenses against Western missiles (1034Z), suggesting they are actively refining interception algorithms based on recent strike data.
Logistics & Personnel: The RF continues to rely on coerced contracts from conscripts (1045Z) to sustain high-attrition assaults in the East, highlighting a persistent need for manpower despite domestic political risks.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Ukrainian Posture:
Diplomatic Initiative: The Paris/Washington mission is critical for securing long-term military aid and security guarantees, likely focused on stabilizing the frontline through enhanced AD and long-range strike capabilities.
Tactical Setbacks: The loss of personnel in Rodinske (1055Z) indicates a failure in "flag-planting" PR operations or reconnaissance-in-force, suggesting RF fire control in the settlement is tighter than previously assessed.
Security & Resilience: Ukrainian National Police remain targets of Russian indirect fire in Zaporizhzhia (1039Z), necessitating increased mobility and hardening of police substations in frontline zones.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Propaganda: Russian state and proxy channels are using the Greenland annexation narrative (1040Z) to paint the US as an expansionist power that will inevitably abandon or absorb its allies, a direct attempt to influence Danish and broader European public opinion.
Internal RF Dissent: Criticism of the Kadyrov family’s nepotism and corruption in Chechnya (1047Z) continues to circulate in Ukrainian and dissident Russian spaces, highlighting potential fault lines in the Kremlin’s domestic alliance structure.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RF will continue localized advances in the Fedorivka-Novomarkove sector to bypass UAF strongpoints. Expect continued footage of POWs from Rodinske to be used to demoralize UAF units in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A coordinated multi-axis push in Sumy Oblast intended to cut the H-07 highway, timed to coincide with the signing of the Paris Agreements to demonstrate the "irrelevance" of Western diplomatic support.
Timeline: High-intensity propaganda wave regarding the "Paris-Washington axis" expected over the next 24-48 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Rodinske Grid Control: Determine the exact extent of RF control in Rodinske. Are UAF units still present in the western outskirts, or has the line completely shifted? (Priority 1)
Sumy Troop Concentrations: Identify if the RF 34th OMSBBr is being reinforced by VDV or other high-mobility units for a deeper push beyond Hrabovske. (Priority 1)
Zaporizhzhia Strike Assets: Identify the specific platform (MLRS, S-300, or KAB) used in the strike on police to adjust AD/passive protection measures. (Priority 2)
