New Threat: RU Ground Robotics in Kherson (1021Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Deployment of NRTK "Kuryer" (Unmanned Ground Combat Vehicles) reported on the Kherson axis. This indicates a shift toward robotic-led assaults to minimize personnel loss in contested riparian zones.
Tactical Aviation: KAB Strikes Initiated (1017Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Donetsk region. This follows the high aviation activity warning at 0935Z.
Deep Strike: UAV Attacks on Russian Regions (1022Z, Север.Реалии, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Unconfirmed reports of drone strikes across multiple RF regions resulting in at least one fatality. Russian authorities are reportedly framing these as "gas explosions" to mitigate panic.
Aerial Defense Success (1010Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): UAF "Strix" unit successfully intercepted and destroyed an unspecified Russian aerial target, maintaining local AD integrity.
International Support: Japanese Aid Package (1018Z, Запорізька ОВА, HIGH): Official confirmation of Japanese assistance focusing on rapid recovery and infrastructure support for frontline regions.
Economic Volatility: NBU Currency Adjustment (1009Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): The National Bank of Ukraine has raised the USD exchange rate to a record high, likely reacting to prolonged war-finance pressures and the Indian oil pivot mentioned in the previous sitrep.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational tempo is characterized by a "dual-track" escalation: Russian forces are intensifying guided bomb (KAB) strikes in the East while introducing unmanned ground systems in the South.
Battlefield Geometry: The Kherson Sector is seeing increased technical complexity with the introduction of UGVs. The Zaporizhzhia/Mykolaiv axes are currently under "Shahed/Geran" UAV pressure, with vectors moving toward Ternuvate and Ochakiv (1004Z, 1021Z).
Weather/Environment: Heavy snow and municipal service failures are reported in Moscow (1002Z), potentially impacting Russian domestic logistics and mobilization centers in the mid-term if infrastructure remains unmanaged.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Robotic Warfare: The use of the "Kuryer" UGV in Kherson (1021Z) suggests the RF is testing automated fire support platforms to bypass UAF FPV dominance in open terrain.
Air Power: Russian Naval Aviation is confirmed active (1013Z), likely supporting Black Sea surveillance or providing additional strike platforms for southern Ukraine.
Tactical Adaptations: RF is increasingly utilizing localized disinformation regarding Ukrainian social policy (e.g., pension payments in occupied zones, 1019Z) to foster resentment and complicate UAF civil-military operations.
Logistics: While the 100th GRAU Arsenal strike (0936Z) remains the primary logistical disruptor, the RF is attempting to mask rear-area vulnerability by attributing drone-related damage to domestic accidents (1022Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Ukrainian Posture:
Air Defense: Active and successful. The "Strix" unit's success (1010Z) demonstrates continued high-level proficiency in tactical drone/missile interception.
Infrastructure & Recovery: Integration of Japanese aid (1018Z) is critical for maintaining resilience in frontline oblasts like Zaporizhzhia, which remains under consistent UAV threat.
Economic Readiness: The NBU's decision to adjust the exchange rate (1009Z) indicates a proactive, albeit painful, adjustment to maintain fiscal stability amidst shifting global oil markets and sustained defense spending.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Disinformation/Hoaxes: Ukrainian National Police have moved to debunk a viral hoax regarding "driver penalty points" (1000Z), highlighting a persistent attempt by adversary actors to trigger domestic social friction within Ukraine.
Russian Internal Friction: Pro-war channels (Alex Parker Returns) are highlighting domestic failures (violence in Krasnodar, municipal collapse in Moscow) while simultaneously pushing anti-US/Greenland narratives to distract the domestic audience (1002Z, 1005Z).
Legal Warfare: The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's office is refining collaborationism laws (1021Z), a necessary step for stabilizing liberated territories and managing long-term internal security.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): RF will continue KAB strikes on Donetsk throughout the next 6 hours to facilitate localized ground advances. UAVs currently over Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia will attempt to strike energy or port infrastructure.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): A coordinated strike involving Naval Aviation and the current UAV wave to overwhelm AD in the Odesa/Mykolaiv corridor, timed with a UGV-led "surprise" assault in the Kherson marshes.
Timeline: KAB impact peak expected NLT 1500Z. UAV arrival at primary targets in central/western Ukraine expected between 1130Z–1300Z.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
NRTK "Kuryer" BDA: Seek drone footage of UGV deployment in Kherson to assess weapon loadouts and remote-control range. (Priority 1)
RF Rear Damage: Corroborate reports of UAV hits in Russian regions (1022Z) to determine if strategic targets were hit despite "gas explosion" cover stories. (Priority 1)
Aviation Tracking: Determine if Russian Naval Aviation (1013Z) is operating from Crimea or mainland RF to assess strike response times. (Priority 2)
