Massive UAV Offensive (0819Z, Военкор Котенок, MEDIUM): Russian sources report a wave of 129 Ukrainian UAVs targeting 22 Russian regions overnight. While the 0729Z report confirmed Voronezh, the scale is significantly larger than initially assessed.
Energy Infrastructure Emergency (0758Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Emergency power outages have been implemented in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava regions. This is a direct consequence of the KAB and UAV strikes reported in the 0737Z-0756Z window.
Zaporizhzhia Aviation Surge (0822Z, GSZSU/Liveuamap, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has expanded strikes to Zaliznychne, Rizdvyanka, Ternuvate, Vozdvyzhenka, and Tavriyske, signaling an intensification of the southern shaping operation.
High-Intensity Donetsk Clashes (0823Z, GSZSU/Liveuamap, HIGH): Combat reported across a wide arc in the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka directions, specifically highlighting Rodynske and Myrnohrad as active contact zones.
Transatlantic Friction (0827Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Danish PM Mette Frederiksen stated that any US move toward Greenland would "mean the end of NATO," marking a significant diplomatic escalation that Russian info-ops are actively exploiting.
Logistical Deficit (0807Z, STERNENKO, HIGH): Frontline drone shortages identified in Donetsk; 33 units have requested 1,124 drones (34.1M UAH funding gap), indicating a potential localized loss of FPV superiority.
Counter-Drone Activity - Raiske (0804Z, NM DNR, MEDIUM): Russian 242nd MSP claims destruction of "Baba Yaga" drones and UAF antennas near Raiske. UNCONFIRMED.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has escalated from localized probing to a multi-theater air and ground offensive. The most critical development is the degradation of the Ukrainian energy grid in the North-East (Sumy/Kharkiv/Poltava) following coordinated KAB/UAV strikes. Simultaneously, the UAF has launched its largest reported drone wave of 2026 (129 units), successfully disrupting rail GLOCs in Voronezh.
Weather: Winter conditions persist; "Zero Course" academic programs (0800Z) and "Winter Admission" initiatives suggest long-term civilian stabilization efforts despite the energy crisis.
Grid Status: Regional outages in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava will likely impact UAF maintenance facilities and rear-area logistics within the next 6-12 hours.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Russian Courses of Action:
Air Domain: Russia is successfully pairing Orlan-10/30 reconnaissance with KAB strikes to hit fixed infrastructure. The expansion of strikes into Zaporizhzhia suggests they are seeking to pin UAF reserves in the south to prevent reinforcement of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad line.
Tactical Adaptation: The use of the 242nd MSP for dedicated counter-drone and antenna interdiction (0804Z) indicates a maturing Russian electronic warfare/kinetic kill chain against UAF drone pilots.
Logistics: Despite the Voronezh rail delays, the RF continues to leverage its internal lines to push toward the Myrnohrad rail node.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Ukrainian Posture:
Defense: UAF successfully repelled two assaults in the Kherson direction (0823Z) and remains engaged in high-intensity urban/suburban combat in Rodynske and Myrnohrad.
Asymmetric Strike: The 129-UAV wave demonstrates the UAF's ability to conduct massed deep-strike operations despite domestic energy pressure.
Resource Constraints: The reported 34.1M UAH gap for drones in the Donetsk sector (0807Z) is a critical vulnerability. If not bridged, RF forces may achieve a tactical breakthrough in the Pokrovsk direction due to a lack of FPV-based interdiction.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Reflexive Control: Russian state-aligned channels (Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad) are heavily amplifying the US-Denmark "Greenland" dispute (0816Z). This is designed to create a perception of Western disunity ahead of Zelenskyy’s "Coalition of the Willing" summit in Paris (0803Z).
Anti-Corruption Messaging: The Zakarpattia road repair case (0800Z) is being used by the General Prosecutor’s Office to demonstrate internal stability and accountability to Western donors.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will continue to exploit the energy outages in Sumy/Kharkiv to launch localized ground assaults, targeting de-energized UAF command and control (C2) nodes. Heavy fighting will persist in Rodynske as RF attempts to seize the high ground.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A sustained Russian aviation campaign in Zaporizhzhia (Zaliznychne-Tavriyske axis) could signal a new offensive intended to sever the southern supply routes to the Donbas, coinciding with the Dnipro oil spill logistics crisis.
Timeline: 12-24h. Expect a retaliatory Russian missile strike on Kyiv or Dnipro in response to the 129-UAV wave.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Rodynske Status: Urgent clarification required on the degree of Russian penetration in Rodynske. Is the settlement contested or functionally lost? (Priority 1)
Energy Recovery: Estimate the "Time to Repair" for the Sumy/Kharkiv/Poltava grids to determine the window of UAF C2 vulnerability. (Priority 1)
129-UAV BDA: Obtain satellite imagery or HUMINT on the 22 targeted Russian regions to assess the effectiveness of the mass drone wave beyond the Voronezh rail hit. (Priority 2)
