Situation Report

Situation Update (0800Z JAN 06 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• Deep Strike Impact - Voronezh (0729Z, TASS, HIGH): A downed Ukrainian UAV impacted rail infrastructure in the Voronezh region, resulting in train delays and physical GLOC (Ground Line of Communication) disruption.
• Aviation Surge - KAB Launches (0737Z-0756Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Confirmed launches of KAB (guided glide bombs) targeting Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions within a 20-minute window, indicating a coordinated aerial shaping operation.
• Multi-Axis UAV Incursions (0731Z-0755Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Multiple UAV groups detected entering Ukrainian airspace from the North-East (targeting Sumy) and South (targeting Mykolaiv/Ochakiv heading North).
• Diplomatic Escalation (0740Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Reports of an emergency summit in Paris to discuss the "Coalition of the Willing" and potential Western troop deployments to Ukraine; President Zelenskyy confirmed to attend.
• Tactical Counter-UAV Strike (0732Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): Russian 2S3 Akatsiya artillery units reportedly destroyed UAF drone command posts in the Zaporizhzhia sector. UNCONFIRMED.
• Information Friction - Tver Incident (0756Z, ASTRA, LOW): Conflicting reports regarding a fatal explosion in Tver; local authorities claim "domestic gas," while social media platforms speculate on UAV impact. UNCONFIRMED.

Operational picture (by sector)

North-Eastern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv): The operational tempo has shifted to active bombardment. Following the 0727Z tactical aviation alert, RF has commenced KAB strikes (0737Z, 0741Z) and persistent UAV incursions (0731Z, 0755Z) from the north-east. This intensity supports the assessment that RF is attempting to suppress UAF defenses near the H-07 highway to consolidate gains in Hrabovske.

Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk/Donetsk): KAB strikes were confirmed at 0756Z. This suggests RF "Tsentr" Group is utilizing guided munitions to break the deadlock near Myrnohrad, likely targeting the rail nodes and defensive "bypass" positions identified in earlier reports.

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Mykolaiv): UAF UAV activity is facing localized counter-battery fire, with Ru MoD claiming the destruction of drone command nodes using 2S3 Akatsiya systems (0732Z). A separate UAV vector moving north from Ochakiv (0736Z) suggests a UAF attempt to bypass southern AD rings or conduct maritime reconnaissance.

Russian Rear (Voronezh/Tver): UAF asymmetric operations are successfully targeting Russian logistics. The Voronezh rail disruption (0729Z) validates the "massive drone wave" narrative from earlier this morning. The Tver explosion (0756Z), regardless of the "gas explosion" cover story, indicates heightened tension in Russian rear areas.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Coordinated Air Campaign: The simultaneous use of KABs across three separate administrative regions (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk) suggests a synchronized air-ground effort to stretch UAF Air Defense assets thin.
• Counter-Drone Adaptation: RF is increasingly using tube artillery (Akatsiya) for rapid-response strikes on UAF drone pilots, indicating a refinement in their "Orlan-to-Artillery" kill chain.
• Regional Influence: Deepening Kazakhstan-Turkey defense ties (0731Z) is being monitored by RF as a threat to their "Southern Flank" influence, likely triggering further hybrid pressure on Astana.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Logistical Interdiction: Successful UAV penetration into Voronezh has caused tangible delays to RF rail transit, likely impacting the flow of materiel toward the Donbas.
• Strategic Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy’s move to the Paris summit (0747Z) signals a transition from seeking equipment to seeking "boots on the ground" or formal security guarantees, coinciding with the SBU’s restructuring for increased kinetic operations.

Information environment / disinformation

• Reflexive Control (Greenland/USA): RF channels (Colonelcassad, Operation Z) are aggressively amplifying quotes from US officials regarding Greenland (0729Z-0757Z). This is a textbook diversion intended to dominate the global media cycle and dilute reports of the 129-UAV strike and the Paris summit.
• Internal Stabilization: The rapid attribution of the Tver explosion to "household gas" (0756Z) by TASS and ASTRA suggests an RF internal directive to minimize "panic" regarding UAF deep-strike capabilities.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB strikes on Sumy and Kharkiv to prevent UAF from reinforcing the H-07 corridor. Expect a secondary wave of Russian UAVs tonight to exploit AD gaps created by today's aviation activity.
• MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF tactical aviation successfully strikes the Dnipro alternate MSRs (Military Supply Routes) identified in the previous daily report, effectively isolating the Pokrovsk pocket during the oil spill crisis.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. Voronezh BDA: Verify the specific rail line affected in Voronezh to determine if it impacts the North-South or East-West logistics flow. (Priority 1)
2. KAB Launch Platforms: Confirm if Ru tactical aviation is operating from bases inside the "safe zone" (cross-border) or if they are within range of UAF long-range assets. (Priority 1)
3. Troop Presence Discourse: Monitor the "Coalition of the Willing" discussions in Paris for specific triggers for deployment (e.g., "if Myrnohrad falls"). (Priority 2)

//IPB ANALYSIS ENDS//