Tactical UGV Deployment (2307Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): UAF SBU elements have successfully integrated ground drones (UGVs) for the evacuation of Prisoners of War (POWs), demonstrating an evolution in tactical recovery capabilities and risk mitigation for extraction teams.
Hybrid Narrative – "Geopolitical Exchange" (2303Z, Tsaplienko/Reuters, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Unconfirmed reports suggest the Kremlin is seeking a "grand bargain" with the U.S., offering non-interference in Venezuela in exchange for concessions on Ukraine. This is assessed as a high-level RF influence operation aimed at eroding UAF morale and Western cohesion.
Sanctions/Diplomatic Friction (2321Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM): Statements attributed to the U.S. Executive claim Venezuelan VP Delcy Rodríguez collaborated with U.S. officials prior to the removal of Nicolás Maduro. This signifies a total breakdown of the previous Venezuelan regime's integrity.
Maritime Anomaly (2303Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Approximately ten Venezuelan oil tankers, including the vessel DASHAN, have exited territorial waters in "dark mode" (AIS disabled).
Expanded Disinformation – Greenland (2315Z, Tsaplienko/Politico, LOW): Emergence of claims regarding a U.S. "takeover" of Greenland by July 2026. Categorized as a lateral disinformation vector to distract Western audiences.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment remains tense along the Eastern and Southern axes, though the last 30 minutes have seen a pivot toward heavy Information Operations (IO) and hybrid activity.
Battlefield Geometry: No significant change in the Line of Contact (LOC) since the 2300Z report. The Dobropillya axis (threatened by the RF 150th MRD) and the Huliaipole sector remain the primary kinetic focus areas.
Tactical Innovation: The confirmed use of UGVs by the SBU (2307Z) for non-combatant/POW extraction indicates a shift toward "unmanned-first" logistics in high-threat zones, likely to counter the RF's increased UAV surveillance noted in previous reports.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Hybrid/Information Warfare: The RF is flooding the information space with "grand bargain" narratives (2303Z). This is a classic "reflexive control" tactic intended to make Ukrainian leadership feel isolated and abandoned by strategic partners during a critical defensive phase in the Donbas.
Course of Action (COA):
MLCOA: RF will continue to use the geopolitical turmoil in Venezuela and speculative reports about Greenland to saturate global media, hoping to mask the continued movement of the 150th MRD toward Dobropillya.
Maritime/Economic: The "dark mode" tanker movements (2303Z) suggest a rapid liquidation of Venezuelan assets or a desperate attempt by RF-aligned interests to secure fuel reserves outside of international monitoring.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
SBU Modernization: The transition of Malyuk to an "asymmetric directorate" (Ref: Daily Report 1500Z) is already yielding visible results. The use of UGVs for POW evacuation (2307Z) validates the focus on specialized, high-tech kinetic and sub-kinetic operations.
Defensive Posture: UAF units in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad sector remain on high alert for the anticipated 06-12h push by RF mechanized elements.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Saturation Strategy: The convergence of reports on Maduro’s removal, the "Ukraine-for-Venezuela" trade, and the "Greenland takeover" (2303Z-2315Z) represents a Tier-1 Information Operation.
Assessment: These narratives are likely designed to overwhelm Ukrainian analytical capacity and create a sense of geopolitical "chaos" where Ukrainian sovereignty is viewed as a tradable commodity.
Confidence: HIGH that the Greenland and "Trade" narratives are part of a coordinated RF-aligned PSYOPS campaign.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA): In the next 6 hours, RF will maintain the "Geopolitical Bargain" narrative while launching localized infantry "Storm" assaults in the Dobropillya sector to test the transition of SBU and UAF command structures.
Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "dark mode" tankers to provide clandestine logistics or funding for a renewed offensive axis, while simultaneously launching a massive cyber-attack on UAF C2 to coincide with the "Grand Bargain" disinformation peak.
Timeline: Tactical push toward Dobropillya expected between 0400Z-0800Z JAN 06.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Verification of Reuters Report: Confirm if the "Venezuela-for-Ukraine" trade report has any basis in actual diplomatic cables or if it is a pure "black" propaganda injection.
UGV Proliferation: Determine the scale of UGV deployment within SBU "Alpha" units to assess if this is a systemic change in CASEVAC/extraction doctrine.
Dobropillya Vector: Obtain BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) on RF 150th MRD staging areas to confirm if the offensive is imminent or delayed by winter weather.
