Chernihiv UAV Infiltration (2245Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): Adversary UAS vectors have expanded deep into Chernihiv region, specifically targeting the vicinity of Chernihiv city, Semenivka, and Novhorod-Siverskyi. This confirms a multi-axis aerial reconnaissance or strike mission following the Slavutych blackout.
Huliaipole Sector Escalation (2250Z, RBK-UA/Genshtab, MEDIUM): UAF General Staff reports repelling over 30 RF attacks in the Huliaipole direction within the last 24 hours, indicating a significant uptick in localized offensive pressure in the Southern MD.
Dobropillya Offensive Axis (2257Z, Operation Z, MEDIUM): Elements of the RF 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th CAA) have reportedly initiated an offensive toward Dobropillya (NW of Pokrovsk).
Escalated Hybrid Narrative - Venezuela (2238Z, Colonelcassad, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Disinformation regarding a US-led coup in Venezuela has evolved to include claims of Maduro’s "arrest and murder" and Swiss asset freezes. This is a COORDINATED DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN designed to saturate the information space.
RF Influence Operation - Germany (2243Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Deliberate injection of future-dated polling data regarding the AfD party into the mil-blogger sphere, likely targeting Western European social cohesion.
RF Attrition Claims (2231Z, TASS, LOW): Uncorroborated report of a single RF soldier neutralizing 45 UAF personnel; categorized as domestic morale-boosting propaganda.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment is characterized by a deliberate expansion of the active front by RF forces, likely intended to exploit UAF logistical friction caused by the Dnipro oil spill and the Slavutych de-energization.
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict is widening laterally. While the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis remains the primary effort, the intense activity in Huliaipole (South) and the new UAV vectors in Chernihiv (North) suggest a strategy of maximum dispersion to strain UAF reserves.
Weather Factor: Continued winter conditions facilitate the use of UAVs for BDA in the northern sector, as thermal signatures of repair crews in de-energized zones (Slavutych) are highly visible.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Primary Offensive (Pokrovsk/Dobropillya): The deployment of the 150th MRD toward Dobropillya (2257Z) indicates an attempt to bypass the Myrnohrad defensive complex from the northwest. If successful, this would threaten the H-32/T-0515 supply lines.
Secondary Effort (Huliaipole): The "30+ attacks" reported (2250Z) suggest the RF is testing for seams in the southern front to prevent UAF from shifting assets toward the Donbas or Sumy.
Aerial Operations: UAV activity over Semenivka and Novhorod-Siverskyi (2245Z) indicates a widening of the "buffer zone" shaping operation, potentially supporting the ground incursion previously noted in Hrabovske.
Logistics/Sustainment: RF remains reliant on "Storm" company attrition tactics (Daily Report 1500Z) but is increasingly using high-volume UAS to compensate for mechanized mobility limitations in snow.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Defensive Posture: UAF forces in the Huliaipole sector remain resilient, successfully containing a high volume of assaults (30+ engagements).
Air Defense: AD units are actively tracking and engaging multiple UAV clusters over Chernihiv. The expansion of these vectors to Semenivka suggests a need for mobile AD reinforcement in the northern border sub-sectors.
SBU Realignment: Command transition to Malyuk’s asymmetric directorate continues; however, no "signature strike" has been observed in the last 6 hours.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Multi-Vector Hybrid Deception: The "Venezuela/Maduro" narrative (2238Z) and "AfD/German Economy" narrative (2243Z) are being pushed simultaneously.
Assessment: These are not isolated reports but a synchronized effort to distract global and domestic UA audiences from the tactical developments in the Sumy and Pokrovsk sectors.
Confidence: HIGH that these narratives are fabricated or heavily distorted for PSYOPS.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-volume probing in Huliaipole to fix UAF Southern Command assets while prioritizing the 150th MRD’s movement toward Dobropillya to outflank the Pokrovsk defenses.
Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA): RF leverages the current Chernihiv UAV saturation (2245Z) as cover for a tactical air-drop or rapid heliborne insertion to seize key infrastructure near the Slavutych rail node, permanently severing northern GLOCs.
Timeline: Expect increased kinetic activity in the Dobropillya-Myrnohrad sector within the next 06-12 hours.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Dobropillya Force Composition: Identify if the 150th MRD advance is supported by heavy armor or if it is a light infantry "Storm" infiltration.
Chernihiv UAV Impact: Confirm kinetic strikes or electronic warfare (EW) effects in Novhorod-Siverskyi following the 2245Z alert.
Huliaipole Tactical Shift: Determine if the 30+ attacks involved any territorial loss or if the line of contact (LOC) remains stable.
