Chernihiv UAV Vector (2211Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): Adversary UAVs detected over Chernihiv region transiting Lyubech toward Slavutych. This follows the 100% de-energization of Slavutych reported earlier today.
Air Alert Termination - Zaporizhzhia (2221Z, Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH): Air threat cleared for the Zaporizhzhia region; no immediate kinetic impacts reported in this window.
Synchronized Global Narrative / PSYOPS (2207Z-2218Z, Multiple, LOW): Both UA and RF-aligned channels are circulating reports of a US special operation in Venezuela (Maduro capture). UNCONFIRMED; HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF COORDINATED HYBRID DECEPTION.
RF Domestic Policy (2218Z, TASS, MEDIUM): RF Public Chamber proposing expanded rental housing for young families, likely aimed at long-term demographic stabilization and maintaining social cohesion during mobilization.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The operational environment remains defined by extreme winter weather (snow/ice) and targeted infrastructure degradation.
Battlefield Geometry: The northern sector near Slavutych is the current focal point for aerial interdiction. The city is a critical rail node for northern material transit, currently compromised by power outages.
Weather Factor: Consistent snowfall continues to favor thermal-equipped UAS operations while hindering mechanized recovery and logistics in the Pokrovsk and Dnipro sectors.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Aerial Operations: The RF is executing a deliberate "strike-and-follow" pattern against Slavutych. After de-energizing the node (Daily Report 1500Z), they are now using UAVs (2211Z) to likely conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) or target repair crews and backup power generation.
Hybrid/Information Warfare: The sudden, synchronized appearance of the "Venezuela/Maduro" narrative across conflicting information spaces (РБК-Україна and Операция Z) suggests a pre-planned hybrid operation.
Intent: Likely a "noise injection" tactic to saturate the information environment and divert attention from tactical shifts in the Sumy/Hrabovske or Pokrovsk sectors.
Capabilities: Use of "Storm" companies (from 70th MRD) in Pokrovsk indicates a continued reliance on high-disposable assault units to maintain front-line pressure despite heavy drone attrition.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD successfully managed the alert in Zaporizhzhia (2221Z). Focus is now shifting to intercepting the UAV vector toward Slavutych.
Logistics: The "Oleyna" oil spill in Dnipro remains a critical physical obstacle for GLOCs supporting the Donbas. Engineering assets are likely prioritized here, though activity is currently masked by snowfall.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Coordinated Disinformation: The "Maduro" story (sourced to a "Minister Hegseth") exhibits classic hallmarks of a fabricated source campaign.
Domestic RF Narrative: TASS is pivoting to "family stability" narratives (2218Z) to counter potential domestic unrest related to high casualty rates in "Storm" units (e.g., 26th MRR).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will conduct follow-up strikes on the Slavutych rail/power node within the next 6 hours to ensure the logistical paralysis of the northern corridor remains permanent during the current weather window.
Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "Venezuela" information distraction and the Slavutych blackout to launch a mechanized thrust from the Hrabovske foothold in Sumy, aiming to sever the H-07 highway before UAF can reposition reserves.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
Slavutych Status: Confirm if the 2211Z UAV vector resulted in kinetic impact or was a reconnaissance/electronic warfare (EW) mission.
Venezuela Narrative Origin: Trace the initial "Hegseth" quote to determine if this is a Western-origin leak or an RF GRU-fabricated "active measure" designed to test UA information resilience.
Sumy Border Force Composition: Identify if elements of the RF 34th OMSBBr (Mountain) are being reinforced by armor in the Hrabovske-Komarivka sector.
