Pokrovsk Tactical Drone Success (2155Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): The 425th Separate Assault Brigade "Skelya" released a digest confirming multiple successful drone strikes against RF personnel and assets in the Pokrovsk sector.
RF Personnel Attrition/POW (2133Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM): Identification of a captured RF soldier from the "Storm" company, 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment (70th MRD), originally from Krasnodar Krai. This confirms the presence and engagement of 70th MRD units in active sectors.
Strategic Narrative Shift (2141Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) is framing the RF strike on the "Oleyna" plant (previously identified as a 300-ton oil spill site) as a sign of "geopolitical failure," specifically highlighting the plant's alleged Western/US industrial ties.
Reported Mobilization Incident - Dnipro (2140Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): RF sources are circulating video of alleged forced conscription in Dnipro under night/snow conditions. UNCONFIRMED; likely a psychological operation to exploit domestic tension.
Snowfall Impact (2137Z-2140Z, Multiple, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms widespread snowfall and sub-zero conditions across the Dnipro and Pokrovsk sectors, significantly impacting thermal signatures and mechanized mobility.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB)
The battlefield environment has transitioned into full winter operations. Heavy snowfall reported in Dnipro and Pokrovsk is currently the primary environmental constraint.
Battlefield Geometry: The front remains stabilized but highly kinetic in the Pokrovsk sector. The "Oleyna" plant strike in Dnipro is being utilized by both sides as a narrative focal point (UA: Geopolitical failure; RF: Industrial degradation).
Weather Factor: Snow and ice are increasing the reliance on thermal-equipped UAVs (as evidenced by the 425th "Skelya" report) while complicating ground evacuation and logistics.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Force Composition: The capture of a "Storm" company soldier from the 26th MRR (70th MRD) indicates the RF continues to utilize high-attrition convict or specialized assault detachments to maintain pressure.
Tactical Adaptations: RF is maintaining pressure in Pokrovsk despite significant drone-inflicted losses. There is a persistent effort to target Western-linked infrastructure to signal reach and intent (narrative targeting).
Logistics: Nighttime operations in Dnipro and other rear areas are being observed by RF assets, likely looking for vulnerabilities in the mobilization and logistics chain.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Force Posture: The 425th Separate Assault Brigade "Skelya" is demonstrating high proficiency in "drone-first" defensive operations in the Pokrovsk sector, effectively attriting RF assault groups before they reach UAF trench lines.
Morale/IW: UAF is aggressively pushing POW data (ID/Serial Numbers) into the RF information space to undermine the morale of the 70th MRD and potential recruits from the Krasnodar region.
Counter-Hybrid: The CPD is actively countering the "oil spill" narrative by reframing the strike as a strategic error by Moscow, aimed at maintaining international support.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Targeted Disinformation: RF sources (Colonelcassad) are amplifying footage of "forced mobilization" in Dnipro (2140Z). This coincides with the logistical strain of the oil spill reported earlier, suggesting a coordinated effort to incite civil unrest in a key logistical hub.
Strategic Messaging: UA is emphasizing the "US plant" connection to the Dnipro strikes to potentially trigger stronger Western diplomatic or military responses.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RF will continue localized "Storm" unit assaults in the Pokrovsk sector through the night, attempting to use snow cover to mask movement, despite high vulnerability to UA thermal drones.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): RF leverages the reported "forced mobilization" and logistical friction in Dnipro to launch a series of deep-strike or sabotage operations targeting the specific units (425th, 24th) that are currently holding the line in Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar.
UAF Response: Expect the "Skelya" brigade to increase the frequency of night drone sorties to exploit the high thermal contrast of RF troops against the snowy background.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
70th MRD Disposition: Determine if the 26th MRR is being reinforced or if the use of "Storm" companies indicates a depletion of standard motorized rifle assets.
Dnipro Internal Stability: Assess the impact of RF "forced mobilization" videos on local sentiment in Dnipro; verify if the footage is authentic or staged/archival.
Industrial Damage Assessment: Clarify the "US plant" claim. Is there a specific American-owned subsidiary operating at the Dnipro site that would escalate the diplomatic impact?
