High-Level SBU Strategic Consolidation (1254Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy met with Maj. Gen. Oleksandr Poklad to discuss "concrete tasks and operations" and the strengthening of counter-intelligence. This follows the 1202Z appointment of Yevhen Khmara, indicating a total realignment of SBU leadership toward aggressive kinetic and counter-sabotage operations.
Domestic Defense Industrial Surge (1250Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Ukraine’s MoD approved over 1,300 new types of domestic weaponry in 2025, a 25% year-over-year increase, signaling reduced reliance on external supply chains for tactical systems.
Deep Strike on RF Infrastructure (1253Z, Igor Artamonov, MEDIUM): UAV debris impacted residential buildings in Yelets (Lipetsk Oblast, RF). This confirms UAF’s continued ability to penetrate 300km+ into RF airspace despite heightened RF air defenses.
Counter-Sabotage Success in Kyiv (1234Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Ukrainian security services reportedly interdicted a Russian-ordered car bombing plot in the capital; suspects are in custody.
Zaporizhzhia Frontal Engagement (1232Z, Diary of a Paratrooper, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report active tactical engagements near Primorske (Zaporizhzhia sector).
Operational Weather Impact (1242Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): Visual evidence confirms heavy snow in the Kupyansk sector, which is currently constraining mechanized movement but facilitating infantry-led "gray zone" incursions.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high, defined by an "asymmetric pivot" within the Ukrainian security apparatus and persistent RF pressure in the Kupyansk and Pokrovsk sectors.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline remains stable but brittle. RF efforts are concentrated on the Kupyansk-Oskil axis and the Pokrovsk salient.
Environmental Factors: Significant snowfall (1242Z) in the northeast (Kupyansk) is degrading visibility for traditional ISR but may favor RF "meat assault" tactics that rely on low-visibility conditions to approach UAF trenches.
Force Disposition: UAF special units (e.g., ALASTOR) are being utilized as "fire brigades" to plug gaps in the Pokrovsk direction (1233Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions: RF "Unmanned Systems Forces" are increasing the frequency of strike footage (1231Z), suggesting a standardized C2 structure for drone operations designed to counter UAF’s technological edge in fiber-optic FPVs.
Rear Area Sabotage: The Kyiv car bombing attempt (1234Z) indicates RF special services (GRU/FSB) are intensifying "Liquidator" operations to destabilize the Ukrainian rear and target high-value individuals during the SBU leadership transition.
Course of Action: In Kupyansk, RF is exploiting the capture of Podoly (Ref: 1230Z Sitrep) by using infantry to clear UAF positions under the cover of winter weather.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
SBU Restructuring: The meeting with Maj. Gen. Poklad (1254Z) focuses on Counter-Intelligence (CI). Combined with the earlier focus on "Active Operations" (Kozak/Khmara), the UAF is simultaneously hardening its internal security while preparing a surge in external sabotage/deep strikes.
Force Readiness: The integration of 1,300+ new domestic weapon systems (1250Z) suggests a rapid fielding cycle for electronic warfare (EW) and localized drone solutions, likely aimed at countering the "IR-dazzler" Shaheds identified in previous reports.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Diversion: RF state media (TASS) and mil-bloggers are flooding the information space with the "Maduro/Venezuela" crisis (1241Z-1254Z). This is a coordinated effort to:
Distract domestic RF audiences from rear-area strikes (Yelets).
Frame the US as "interventionist" to mirror RF's own actions in Ukraine.
RF Domestic Consolidation: Putin’s directive on family support (1232Z) suggests a pivot toward long-term "war economy" social engineering to maintain domestic stability during a prolonged conflict.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity UAV pressure on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia (1254Z) to mask a localized infantry push in the Kupyansk sector under current snowy conditions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF sabotage units, taking advantage of the SBU leadership transition period, successfully execute a high-profile assassination or infrastructure strike in Kyiv to create a "C2 vacuum."
Deep Strike Projection: Following the Yelets strike (1253Z), UAF is likely mapping gaps in the Lipetsk/Voronezh AD corridors. Expect a multi-UAV follow-up strike on industrial or energy targets in this sector within 24 hours.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Alert (Kyiv/Rear): Increased risk of hybrid/sabotage operations following the interdicted car bombing.
Tactical Monitoring: Watch for a mechanized breakout attempt in the Kupyansk-Podoly sector if weather clears.
Air Defense: Missile danger persists in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (1254Z); potential for a mixed-modal (UAV + Cruise Missile) strike overnight.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
SBU Operational Priority: Confirm if Maj. Gen. Poklad’s new "tasks" involve a specific purge of suspected RF moles within the regional administrations.
Yelets Strike Assessment: Determine the specific target in Yelets (e.g., rail hub, industrial plant) to assess UAF strategic intent in the Lipetsk region.
Kupyansk "Snow Tactics": Monitor RF use of thermal-cloaking capes or specialized winter gear that might degrade UAF drone-based surveillance in the current weather.
