Formalization of SBU Leadership Transition (1202Z-1225Z, Zelenskyy/Official, HIGH): Yevhen Khmara has been officially appointed as the acting head (t.v.o.) of the SBU via presidential decree. Outgoing head Vasyl Malyuk confirmed he remains within the service to lead "world-class special operations" against the RF.
Strategic SBU Operational Meeting (1202Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): President Zelenskyy met with Col. Vasyl Kozak, a key developer of "active operations," to discuss the "potential of the SBU" and future kinetic capabilities.
Expanding OWA-UAV Threat (1213Z-1224Z, Air Force, HIGH): Multiple waves of Shahed-type UAVs are currently active. Vectors identified toward Zaporizhzhia (from the south) and toward Sumy/Chernihiv (northern border).
Casualties in Zaporizhzhia (1220Z, ASTRA, HIGH): Local authorities confirm one fatality following a strike on the city, likely linked to the ongoing UAV/missile activity.
Reported Attrition of RF Command (1214Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): Col. Selimov Erik Anverovich, commander of the RF 136th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, reportedly killed in a traffic accident near occupied Alchevsk.
Unconfirmed RF Gains in Donetsk (1217Z, Operatsiya Z, LOW): RF sources claim the 9th Brigade has seized the settlement of Rodynske. UAF sources have not corroborated this loss of terrain.
Diplomatic Economic Pivot (1207Z, Zelenskyy/Official, HIGH): Chrystia Freeland has been appointed as an advisor for economic development to bolster internal resilience and investment.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a high-tempo aerial offensive targeting urban centers (Zaporizhzhia) and a critical structural reorganization of Ukrainian security assets.
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict remains multi-domain. While RF forces claim tactical movement in the Pokrovsk/Rodynske sector, the primary weight of effort is currently aerial (UAVs) and asymmetric (SBU realignment).
Environmental Factors: Cyclonic activity persists (as noted in the 24h summary), likely driving the current RF reliance on OWA-UAVs rather than precision aviation, which may be limited by visibility.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Course of Action: RF "Center" Group is prioritizing the interdiction of UAF rotations using FPV drones on the northern Donetsk front (1211Z). This aims to exhaust units before they can reach frontline defensive positions.
Aerial Operations: The RF is maintaining a constant pressure loop. By launching UAVs toward Sumy/Chernihiv (1223Z) while simultaneously striking Zaporizhzhia from the south, they are attempting to overstretch UAF Air Defense (AD) coverage across the entire vertical axis of the country.
Command Attrition: If the death of Col. Selimov (CO 136th MRB) is confirmed, it represents a significant localized C2 disruption for RF forces in the Alchevsk/Luhansk sector.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
SBU Restructuring: The appointment of Yevhen Khmara (former Alpha Group) and the high-profile meeting with Col. Vasyl Kozak (1202Z) signal that the SBU is being optimized for Deep Strike and Sabotage (Active Operations). This is no longer a security transition but a formalization of a new Line of Effort (LOE) focused on kinetic effects inside RF territory.
Economic Resilience: The appointment of Chrystia Freeland indicates a strategic move to secure long-term Western financial and industrial integration, potentially hedging against delays in direct military aid.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF Propaganda: Pro-Russian channels are heavily promoting the "Rodynske capture" (1217Z) to project momentum. Simultaneously, TASS is amplifying Viktor Orban’s "Budapest 2026" peace initiative (1202Z) to foster a narrative of impending Western-led settlement, likely aimed at undermining UAF resolve.
Hybrid Distractions: RF assets are amplifying narratives regarding US "claims" on Greenland (1214Z) and the Venezuela crisis (1209Z) to portray the West as colonialist and overextended.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue OWA-UAV saturation of the Sumy-Chernihiv-Kyiv corridor over the next 6-12 hours to fix AD assets while preparing a secondary missile strike on Kharkiv's already degraded energy grid.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported command disruption (Selimov death) or the Rodynske push to launch a localized mechanized breakthrough toward Pokrovsk, exploiting any temporary UAF focus on the SBU leadership transition.
Asymmetric Trigger: Given the emphasis on "world-class operations" by Malyuk and the meeting with Kozak, a significant UAF asymmetric strike on RF logistical or political infrastructure (e.g., Belgorod, Kursk, or maritime assets) is highly probable within the next 48 hours to signal the new SBU leadership's operational reach.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Alert: Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Chernihiv remain under active UAV threat; additional impacts expected.
Tactical Monitoring: Close observation of the Rodynske sector to confirm or deny RF claims of occupation.
Command & Control: Khmara's first official orders as Acting Head of SBU may involve a surge in rear-area security or forward sabotage missions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Rodynske Ground Truth: Immediate ISR/Drone-recon required to verify the status of Rodynske.
UAV Technicals: Monitor if the UAVs moving on Chernihiv/Sumy are equipped with the previously identified IR-dazzlers.
RF 136th MRB Status: Monitor RF radio traffic in the Alchevsk sector for signs of C2 breakdown following the reported loss of Col. Selimov.
