Strategic Leadership Transition in SBU (1131Z-1145Z, Zelenskyy/Malyuk, HIGH): Vasyl Malyuk has resigned as Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). Yevhen Khmara, previously head of Center for Special Operations "A" (Alpha Group), has been appointed as the new Head of the SBU. Malyuk will remain within the SBU to lead "asymmetric operations."
Confirmation of Severe Infrastructure Damage in Kharkiv (1146Z, Terehov, HIGH): Local authorities confirm five targeted missile strikes specifically hitting energy infrastructure. Damage is described as "very significant."
Inbound UAV Threat to Chernihiv (1132Z, Air Force, HIGH): An OWA-UAV (Shahed-type) is confirmed in western Chernihiv Oblast, maintaining a southern vector.
Unconfirmed RF Offensive Claims - Zaporizhzhia (1141Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim tactical successes and advances on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF sources have not corroborated these claims, though a regional air alert was issued at 1147Z.
Detention of Former Official in Germany (1130Z, Gen. Prosecutor, HIGH): A former Ukrainian People's Deputy wanted for market manipulation has been apprehended in Germany, indicating continued international law enforcement cooperation.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasingly defined by a Russian focus on the Kharkiv energy node and a major structural pivot within the Ukrainian security apparatus.
Battlefield Geometry: While the frontline remains relatively static (excluding unconfirmed claims in Zaporizhzhia), the "deep battle" has intensified. The vector of the UAV over Chernihiv (1132Z) suggests a potential attempt to penetrate the Kyiv bypass or target northern logistical hubs.
Infrastructure: Kharkiv's energy grid is under critical strain following five confirmed missile impacts. This indicates a shift from "saturation" to "precision degradation" of the city's winter survival capabilities.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Kharkiv Axis: RF is successfully employing a "Recce-Strike Complex" to achieve kinetic effects on high-value infrastructure. The use of five missiles on a single sector suggests a concentrated effort to trigger a localized blackout.
Zaporizhzhia Sector: RF information assets (Colonelcassad/DnevnikDesantnika, 1141Z) are attempting to project offensive momentum. Given the 1147Z air alert in Zaporizhzhia, it is likely RF is using aviation or long-range fires to prep the area, though ground gains remain UNCONFIRMED.
Hybrid Operations: RF continues to leverage the Venezuela crisis (TASS/Rybar, 1128Z-1139Z) to flood the information space, attempting to frame Western (US/EU/Swiss) focus as overextended.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Strategic Realignment: The appointment of Yevhen Khmara (former Alpha Group head) as SBU Chief (1141Z) signals a formal transition of the SBU from a traditional counter-intelligence/security agency to a primary kinetic asymmetric warfare branch. Zelenskyy’s directive to "scale up" the experience of CSO "A" suggests an impending increase in deep-strike and sabotage operations inside RF territory.
Asymmetric Focus: Vasyl Malyuk's shift to a dedicated role in asymmetric operations indicates that high-level planning for "world-class" special operations (1134Z) is now a prioritized line of effort, likely independent of day-to-day administrative SBU functions.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Leadership Narrative: RF channels (Operatsiya Z, 1151Z) are attempting to frame the Malyuk resignation as a "scandalous dismissal" to project instability. Conversely, UAF channels and official statements present this as a planned strategic optimization (1145Z).
Occupied Territory Dissent: Reports from Donetsk (Butusov Plus, 1139Z) indicate internal friction between the occupation administration (Pushilin) and pro-Russian locals regarding property seizures, potentially offering an opening for UAF psychological operations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to exploit the damage in Kharkiv with follow-on UAV strikes to prevent repair efforts. The UAV in Chernihiv (1132Z) will likely attempt to strike energy or transit nodes in the Chernihiv/Kyiv border region within the next 2-3 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported (though unconfirmed) momentum in Zaporizhzhia to launch a localized multi-regiment assault toward Orikhiv or Stepnohirsk while UAF attention is fixed on the Kharkiv energy crisis and SBU leadership transitions.
Strategic Forecast: The Khmara appointment suggests a 24-72 hour window before a significant UAF asymmetric response (e.g., strike on RF energy or C2) is launched to "inaugurate" the new leadership's operational focus.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Energy Emergency: Severe power fluctuations expected in Kharkiv; possible emergency evacuations or heating center activations.
Aerial Threat: High probability of OWA-UAV arrivals in northern/central Ukraine (Chernihiv vector).
Asymmetric Surge: Expect high-readiness alerts for SBU "Alpha" units across all sectors.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Zaporizhzhia Verification: Urgent need for ISR or Partisan reporting to confirm/deny the RF claims of advances reported at 1141Z.
Khmara’s First Move: Monitor for unusual SBU kinetic activity in RF border oblasts (Belgorod/Kursk) that would indicate the new "scaled-up" special operations directive.
Chernihiv UAV Target: Track the southern vector of the BplA (1132Z) to determine if the target is the Kyiv electrical ring or military logistics in the Desna region.
