Ballistic/UAV Saturation Strike on Kharkiv (1100Z-1117Z, Air Force/Terehov/Sternenko, HIGH): A coordinated multi-wave strike involving at least 5 explosions. Reports confirm 4 ballistic strikes coordinated by reconnaissance UAVs, followed by ongoing OWA-UAV activity.
RF Claimed Capture of Grabovskoye (1100Z, RF MoD, MEDIUM): The 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (Sever Group) claims control of Grabovskoye, Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force confirms reconnaissance UAVs are currently active in northern Sumy (1125Z).
Interdiction of Siverskyi Donets Crossing (1103Z, 81st Airmobile, HIGH): UAF 81st Brigade successfully repelled an RF attempt to cross the river, maintaining the integrity of the defensive line.
Critical Infrastructure Damage in Dnipro (1110Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms a "Geran" OWA-UAV impacted power lines, likely contributing to ongoing energy instability in the sector.
RF Domestic Alert - Lipetsk Oblast (1114Z, Artamonov, HIGH): Regional authorities issued a full-scale UAV threat alert, indicating UAF deep-strike activity continues to penetrate the RF interior.
Diplomatic Appointment (1113Z, TASS, HIGH): Former Canadian FM Chrystia Freeland has been appointed as a Presidential Advisor for economic development.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus has shifted significantly toward Kharkiv, which is currently enduring a mixed-modal "strike complex" (Ballistic missiles + OWA-UAVs).
Battlefield Geometry: The front is expanding laterally with the RF claim in Grabovskoye (Sumy), potentially aiming to create a new "buffer zone" or fix UAF reserves away from the Kupyansk/Donetsk axes.
Weather: Cyclonic activity persists. RF is utilizing reconnaissance UAVs to provide real-time terminal guidance for ballistic strikes in Kharkiv (1110Z), suggesting they have found technical workarounds for low-visibility conditions.
Infrastructure: Massive power outages in Krasnodar Krai (15,000+ without power, 1104Z) and the drone-wire impact in Dnipro highlight the reciprocal "energy war" currently defining the deep rear operations.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Operational Pictures by Sector:
Kharkiv/Northern Axis: RF is employing a "Recce-Strike Complex" methodology. Reconnaissance UAVs are loitering to identify targets and correct fire for ballistic salvos (Iskander or S-300 in ballistic mode), followed by "Shahed" waves to suppress recovery efforts (1110Z-1123Z).
Sumy Sector: The claimed capture of Grabovskoye by the 34th Brigade (1100Z) represents a localized offensive push. If confirmed, this indicates a transition from cross-border shelling to ground-shaping operations.
Siverskyi Donets: RF continues to seek opportunistic river crossings to bypass established UAF defenses, though tactical execution remains poor (1103Z).
Capabilities & Tactics:
Dazzling/EW Adaptation: Pro-Russian analysts (Fighterbomber, 1118Z) suggest RF UMPK glide bombs are maintaining effectiveness despite UAF EW, while UAF interceptor drone shortages (Sternenko, 1101Z) are being exploited.
Third-Party Tech: Emergent intelligence (Rybar, 1101Z) indicates a focus on North Korean drone development, potentially signaling future RF procurement of NK loitering munitions to supplement domestic production.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Defensive Posture: The 81st Airmobile Brigade remains combat-effective, successfully holding the Siverskyi Donets line. However, the 14th Spetsnaz (RF) reported a successful FPV strike on UAF engineering groups near Verkhnya Tersa (1100Z), indicating vulnerability in tactical rears during fortification works.
Attrition Capability: UAF drone units (Madyar, 1106Z) claim over 33,000 RF casualties in December alone, underscoring the vital role of UAVs in UAF's active defense strategy.
Resource Constraints: The urgent fundraising for "interceptors" (1101Z) corroborates the previously identified "Rusorez" deficit, specifically in anti-drone aerial capabilities.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Appointments: The appointment of Chrystia Freeland (1113Z) is already being targeted by RF propaganda (Zakharova, 1128Z) to frame the Ukrainian government as "extremist-linked," aiming to undermine Western political cohesion.
Internal Morale: High-level meetings between Zelenskyy and former FM Kuleba (1112Z) suggest a potential reshuffle or a "unity" push as the winter campaign intensifies.
International Distraction: RF channels are heavily amplifying the US/Venezuela/Cuba narrative (1108Z, 1118Z, 1121Z) to project an image of global US overextension and imminent "regime collapse" in Havana, likely to distract from RF's own domestic logistics failures (Krasnodar outages).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the Kharkiv strike pressure for the next 6-12 hours, using loitering UAVs to "fix" emergency responders for follow-on ballistic strikes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF uses the Grabovskoye foothold in Sumy to launch a mechanized raid toward the regional center (Sumy city), forcing UAF to divert the 81st Airmobile or other elite reserves from the Siverskyi Donets/Donbas line.
Logistics Forecast: The Lipetsk UAV alert (1114Z) suggests a UAF counter-strike is imminent. If UAF successfully hits the Lipetsk industrial/logistical hub, it could temporarily degrade the RF supply chain for the Sever Group (Sumy/Kharkiv axis).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High Alert (Kharkiv): Ballistic threat remains critical. The "high-speed target" reported at 1112Z suggests RF has unspent missile inventory in the Belgorod region.
Sumy Expansion: Watch for visual confirmation of RF armor in Grabovskoye. This would signal a shift from a "raid" to a "territorial seizure" intent.
Aerial Interception: Expect a surge in UAF "Wild Hornet/Sting" activity in Dnipro to counter the "Geran" wave currently entangled in the power grid.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Grabovskoye Ground Truth: Urgent requirement for satellite or tactical ISR to confirm RF presence in Grabovskoye (Sumy).
Kharkiv BDA: Identify specific targets of the 5 explosions (Industrial vs. Command/Control) to determine if RF is shifting back to infrastructure targeting.
Lipetsk Strike Results: Monitor for BDA on UAF deep-strikes in Lipetsk; check for disruptions to the M4 highway or local rail nodes.
