Massive Aerial Assault on Kyiv (0806Z-0819Z, Multiple, HIGH): A coordinated overnight/morning strike targeted the capital. A large fire is confirmed at a warehouse in the Solomianskyi district.
Energy Infrastructure Crisis (0806Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Russian strikes have completely de-energized the city of Slavutych. National energy status is currently critical.
Dnipropetrovsk Ground Movement (0821Z, Slivochniy Kapriz, MEDIUM): Reports of active combat operations and Russian movement along the Solona River toward Novopavlivka.
UAF Deep Strike on Yelets (0818Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Ukrainian OWA-UAVs successfully struck the "Energiya" plant in Yelets (Lipetsk Oblast), which produces specialized batteries/components for the RF military.
SBU Leadership Instability (0802Z-0827Z, ASTRA/Hayabusa, MEDIUM): Unconfirmed but persistent reports (multiple sources) indicate SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk has agreed to resign. UNCONFIRMED.
RF Tactical Shift in Kupyansk (0758Z, Slivochniy Kapriz, MEDIUM): Fighting has intensified specifically within the village of Kurylivka, following the previous loss of Podoly.
IPB Framework Analysis
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has shifted from "shaping" to "execution" of the RF Winter Strike Package. The geometry of the conflict is expanding as RF forces attempt to cross the administrative border into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Novopavlivka axis), likely intending to bypass the heavily fortified Pokrovsk defenses from the south.
Weather: Winter conditions persist; heavy smoke and low visibility in Kyiv (Solomianskyi) and Yelets due to industrial fires.
Key Terrain: The Solona River line near Novopavlivka is now a critical defensive barrier to prevent an RF breakthrough into the broader Dnipro logistics heartland.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities & Intentions:
Coordinated Strike Complex: The RF has transitioned from the "pathfinding" OWA-UAV waves noted in the 0730Z report to a massive missile/drone saturation of Kyiv and regional energy nodes (Slavutych). This validates the previous MLCOA regarding an imminent strike package.
Dnipropetrovsk Incursion: The movement toward Novopavlivka suggests the RF is attempting to exploit the junction between the Southern and Eastern fronts. This axis threatens the Pavlohrad rail hub from a new vector.
Industrial Support: Despite successful UAF strikes on Yelets, the RF continues to utilize "Lancet" loitering munitions for counter-battery fire (e.g., destruction of UAF D-30 near Raiske - 0802Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture & Readiness:
Deep Strike Efficacy: UAF continues to demonstrate "Strategic Reach" by hitting high-value military industrial targets (Yelets) even during a massive incoming air assault.
Tactical Defense: The 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade (Incognito Battalion) continues to record high-attrition drone strikes against RF infantry (0757Z), maintaining the "drone-first" defensive posture.
Command Vulnerability: Rumors of the SBU leadership change (Malyuk) create a "risk window" for domestic security and counter-intelligence operations during a period of high hybrid threat.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeted Political Distraction: Pro-RF channels (Colonelcassad, Basurin) are heavily amplifying US domestic political discourse (Trump/Musk/Greene) to drown out reports of RF industrial losses in Yelets and the 10x increase in RF military alcohol-related crimes (0801Z).
Cognitive Ops: Using "Morse code" narratives for Kyiv blackouts (0813Z) to mock the civilian population and degrade morale during energy shortages.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will intensify ground pressure on the Novopavlivka-Mezhova axis over the next 12 hours to force UAF to redeploy reserves away from Pokrovsk. Additional KAB strikes on Kharkiv (0759Z) will continue as "fixing" operations.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Utilizing the de-energization of Slavutych, RF tactical groups may attempt a cross-border raid from the north to seize the local energy switching infrastructure, permanently decoupling the sector from the national grid.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Novopavlivka Combat Status: Immediate requirement for drone ISR to confirm if RF forces have established a lodgment on the western bank of the Solona River.
Kyiv Damage Assessment: Determine if the Solomianskyi warehouse fire involves military-logistical stores or dual-use infrastructure.
SBU Transition: Clarify the "negotiated resignation" of Malyuk. Is there a designated interim successor to ensure continuity of "Alpha" drone operations?
Recommendations:
Logistics Rerouting: Immediately adjust rail/road movement through Pavlohrad. The RF ground movement in Novopavlivka (approx. 40km from Pavlohrad) puts the hub within potential tube artillery or long-range MLRS reach if the line is not stabilized.
Energy Defense: Deploy additional mobile fire groups (MFG) to protect remaining high-voltage substations near Slavutych to prevent total regional blackout.
Strategic Communications: Counter the "SBU chaos" narrative by having the General Staff or Ministry of Defense issue a statement on operational continuity to maintain soldier morale.
